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Hurray! We're back in the trend channel at last!
The Ten Step Channel Sustainability Plan
1. Enormous income increases for the 1%!
2. Even bigger homes!
3. More custom heliports!
4. More olympic-sized hot tubs!
5. More luxury yacht moorage!
6. More granite! Walls, ceilings, and roofs!
7. More vacation homes for the richest!
8. More apartments for the poorest!
9. Dispatch the national guard! Contain the subprime!
10. Pray.
Sustainable prosperity, baby. That's what I'm talking about.
This post inspired by Exurban Nation's Sore Thumb Sticks out in New Home Sales.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
8 comments:
I have a series of new house observations from the recently released HUD New Housing Characteristics 2013 data. Some truly eypopping trends. By 2034 we will be filling in basements apparently.
By 2034 we will be filling in basements apparently.
With prosperity of course!
Filling in basements with dead tenants is just plain wrong, and likely a source of extreme embarrassment for the richest among us.
The Onion: Landlord Not Convinced Heat Isn't Working
Ngyuen bolstered his claim by explaining that the thermostat was replaced just two years ago, that the upstairs neighbors haven't said anything, and the fact that you shouldn't pump too much heat in there anyway because its just going to dry you out.
Times are tough enough for landlords, they don't need that.
The Onion: Crack Dealer Only Tenant Landlord Can Depend On For Rent
"I couldn't ask for a better tenant," said Brown, 52, who praised Cruz for personally delivering his $950 monthly rent in cash. "He's dependable, quiet, and hardly ever has any complaints or repair issues. He's a property owner's dream."
The fundamentals still seem strong for the sarcasm bull market. I'm not seeing any indications of a bubble forming yet, lol. Sigh.
For the mathematically challenged (like me) what are the axiseseseeeze of the housing "skew" graph?
Anonymous,
I'm not quite sure exactly what you are asking so I will attempt to describe the entire process.
The x-axis (bottom scale) shows the date.
The the y-axis (left scale) shows the dollar amount of the median price of new homes sold adjusted for inflation (in today's dollars).
The black line shows the data.
The red channel shows the overall trend (which in this case appears to be exponential growth).
I created the top part of the channel by using two data points (seen as red diamonds on the chart). The first was at the top of the channel in the late 1970s and the second was at the top of the channel in the late 2000s.
I created the bottom part of the channel by using three data points (also seen as red diamonds on the chart).
I then filled in the area between the two trend lines with a paint program to show the extent of the channel.
Why did I fit it with an exponential trend and not some other kind of trend you might ask? I see exponential growth when I look at the chart. Somebody else might see something different. Trend lines and channels are definitely not an exact science. Further, just because a trend has looked predictable in the past doesn't mean that it will continue. Trends fail all the time. For what it is worth, I have posted many, many charts involving trend failures.
Hope this helps.
I'm not sure where you are going with this heliport business.
Everyone knows a helipad is a target. Much better to have a runway but call it a agricultural road for tax purposes.
Rob Dawg,
Oh, man. You're right, of course. And now that you bring it up, the olympic-sized hot-tub is just right out. What I meant to say was federally protected wet land and/or non-profit drought prevention reservoir. My bad! ;)
Re: I'm not quite sure exactly what you are asking so I will attempt to describe the entire process.
Sorry, i was referring to "Rob Dawg's" chart in your link to his page. ( This post inspired by Exurban Nation's Sore Thumb Sticks out in New Home Sales. )
Anonymous,
Sorry, i was referring to "Rob Dawg's" chart in your link to his page.
You definitely missed an opportunity to pull me into a serious sarcasm trap. I could have gotten stuck permanently had you simply asked me to elaborate further each time I replied. :)
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