2nd Half of Year Recovery at Risk, Again

2nd Half of Year Recovery

Any word on the when the 2nd half of year recovery will recover? It is like we've sent a rescue team out to save the stranded mountain climbers and now the rescue team itself needs saving. Surely we can send out a few more helicopters to drop some freshly printed cash on them. If we do it enough times, they can burn it to keep themselves warm until the storm passes.

Oops! That's from July of 2008. I must not be getting enough sleep. I was looking for something a bit more current. Sorry about that. The 2008 second-half of year recovery didn't pan out so well and I really apologize for bringing that sore subject back up. Please allow me to try again.

Second-Quarter Weakness, Second-Half Comeback?

That's a heck of a lot better than the negative growth estimates from the alarmists' corner. And even though unemployment will probably creep up further, the economy should manage signs of recovery in the third quarter -- the fourth at the very latest.

What on earth is going on? Damn! I did it again. That one was from May of 2001. In my defense, all these second-half of year recoveries are starting to look the same to me. One last try. I swear I'm going to do my best on this one. No more mistakes!

January 15, 2009
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rose to 524,000 Last Week (Update1)

“We’ve had consistent numbers that are worse than expectations,” Dan North, chief U.S. economist at Euler Hermes ACI in Owings Mills, Maryland, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “That kind of tells you that the recession seems to be accelerating just a little bit and puts the forecast of a second-half recovery at risk.”

That's more like it. I sure hope I don't make these mistakes again in January of 2010 as we discuss the odds of a recovery later in that year. That could be VERY embarrassing.