Port Traffic

The latest port traffic statistics were released by the Port of Long Beach today. I combined that data with the Port of Los Angeles. I then ran the data through a seasonal adjustment program and adjusted the results by United States population growth. Here are the results.

The sarcastic commentary is completely unadjusted though. I want you to see it in its original form. Call me an illusion of prosperity sadist, if you will.



This is clearly just a typical cyclical downturn. Expect it to bounce back to the red trend line shortly, just like it did during our last recession earlier this decade. As a side note, we're going to need a heck of a lot more self storage units in the years to come. There never seems to be enough space for cheap Chinese manufactured goods that we miraculously manage to buy with freshly printed money. We should take advantage of the Chinese love of our paper products for as long as we possibly can. Eventually they may tire of it.



If there is one thing we can count on to get us through these difficult times, it is export growth. I'm guessing we'll return to the red trend line in the second half of the year, perhaps during our much fabled second half of year cyclical recovery.

The naysayers seem to have a few itsy bitsy tiny nagging concerns though. Isn't that just like them? Always looking for the worst outcome and never satisfied unless they get it. So let's rationalize their concerns away and be done with them.

What if the trend line should have just been a flat line centered on 0.6 TEUs per thousand capita?

That's a really good question. However, what's the point of having a chart with a straight flat line on it? Doesn't that seem a bit silly? How can an economy prosper with straight flat lines everywhere? That's insanity. No sir. We need exponential growth on top of population growth in order to prosper. If that requires trillions of dollars in freshly printed money, then so be it.

What if we're actually just reverting to the mean?

Clearly somebody has been reading way too many introductory economic textbooks. This is all covered in the advanced economic t-shirt markets though. Reversion to the mean is a 25 sigma event when money is being printed at essentially no cost. Look, let's put this another way. If we can destroy our currency fast enough, foreigners will surely want to buy our goods (food, scrap paper, scrap metals, and our other advanced technology natural resources) from us before it is too late. Therefore, keep the faith!

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
Port of Long Beach: Statistics
Port of Los Angeles: Statistics
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program
St. Louis Fed: Population: Mid-Month