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Brink: The Coming Baby Bust Caused by COVID-19
We’re already down 500,000 to 600,000 births per year from the recent peak in 2007, so now you’re starting to talk about approaching a million fewer babies born per year.
The following chart shows the fertility rate since 2007.
According to the United Nations Population Division, our fertility rate needs to be 2.1 just to maintain our population. Our recent 2007 peak was barely adequate, and it's been downhill ever since.
Over the long-term, those expecting a booming economy and higher real yields on investments will most likely be sorely disappointed. Welcome to Japan. Prepare for endless ZIRP. Brace for continued fertility rate disappointments as more and more come to realize the dire situation we find ourselves in.
For those who thought Trump would make America great again, you might want to look closely at the fertility rate since he was elected in 2016. Chaos and incompetence at the top only led to more uncertainty and divisiveness at the bottom. Chaos, incompetence, uncertainty, and divisiveness are not exactly great underlying conditions for fruitfulness and multiplication, if you catch my meaning.
