Retail Trade Employment per Capita

The good news, if you can call it that, is that we've managed to climb back to the declining trend line in red. Here's the reaction from our cat Dexter:

It's the same look he has when hunting buggies, birbs, bees, and bagholders. Okay, maybe not bagholders. He's just a cat, not a Wall Street professional trader. In a world of predators, it's easy to forget that.

In all seriousness, it would be an understatement to say that I am not optimistic about where retail trade employment heads from here. The short-term recovery tailwinds are gone. The long-term automation headwinds remain. May we live in dangerously interesting times. Sigh.

Mining Productivity Miracle

The following chart shows the mining industrial production index divided by the number of mining employees (thousands).

Bagger 293

Bagger 293 is 96 metres (314.9 feet) tall (Guinness World Record for highest terrestrial vehicle, shared with Bagger 288). It is 225 metres (738.2 feet) long (same as Bagger 287), weighs 14,200 tonnes (31.3 million pounds), and requires five people to operate.

At what point are these fully-automated and/or self-replicating?

The Future of Retail Employment

The following chart shows monthly nonstore retail sales per nonstore retail employee.

In December 2020, there was $132k in nonstore retail sales per nonstore retail employee. That's a whopping $1.6 million per year pace and it’s a pace that continues to grow much faster than inflation.

There really isn't much of a future for retail employment, unless one happens to be a robot.

July 15, 2020
Reuters: Japanese robot to clock in at a convenience store in test of retail automation

TOKYO (Reuters) - In August, a robot vaguely resembling a kangaroo will begin stacking sandwiches, drinks and ready meals on shelves at a Japanese convenience store in a test its maker, Telexistence, hopes will help trigger a wave of retail automation.

My Long-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Well-Anchored

 

This is a can of petite diced tomatoes. Target will currently sell it to us for 49 cents. It’s not on sale. That’s the normal price.

If we spend $35, they will ship it to us for free. If we buy 72 cans, that would cost us $35.28. Each 14.5oz can weighs almost exactly 1 pound (due to the extra weight of the empty can). That means the total shipment weighs a whopping 72 pounds (expect some dented cans).

At the beginning of the pandemic, we also paid 49 cents for these cans at Target. How is it that pandemic hoarding, intermittent shortages, and massive monetary stimulus have not caused the price to go up? How can Target continue to ship us goods this cheap even as online shipping demand has skyrocketed?

It’s not just petite diced tomatoes. I’m only using this as an example. It’s pretty much everything we’ve stocked up on from Target, Costco, Walmart, and Amazon since the beginning of the pandemic.

In related news, it’s not too late to read the 2008 Hyperinflation Special Report on Shadowstats. For what it is worth, I’m personally waiting until their $175 subscription price starts inflating. I need to see them put their money where their mouth is. Even a token one cent increase to $175.01 would attract my attention. Is it too much to ask? It’s been the same price for more than a decade. In my opinion, it’s very difficult to sell a hyperinflation story without at least one subscription price increase in 12+ years!

Our government is definitely taking a “shock and awe” approach to thwarting deflation. Will it be enough to counter the increased pace of automation due to a pandemic though? Robots don’t get sick, nor do they require living wages. Based on Japan’s “success” at thwarting deflation, my long-term bet is on the robots. Their present seems to be our future.

January 1, 2021
NHK World - Japan: Autonomous delivery robots hit Japanese streets

A robot knocks on your door to deliver a freshly brewed cup of coffee, which you ordered just minutes earlier with one tap on your smartphone. This vision of the future could soon turn into reality as Japanese companies have started testing autonomous delivery robots on public streets. This comes as the need for social distancing amid the coronavirus pandemic has pushed up demand for autonomous delivery services.

The Path Back to the 1950s

The following chart shows retail and wholesale employees per capita. We peaked in April of 2000 at 7.35%.



When it comes to retail and wholesale trade employment, we were eventually heading back to the 1950s anyway. The virus is simply speeding things along. I doubt very much that we will stop at the 1950s. Fully automated warehouses are only a matter of time. At what point will the government stop reporting non-farm payrolls and instead start reporting non-farm, non-retail and non-wholesale trade employment?

This is deflationary. Robots will never demand higher wages to compensate them for all their hard work.

May 8, 2020
CNBC: Coronavirus fallout: Here are the 16 department stores Nordstrom is closing permanently

Nordstrom shares were up about 4% Friday afternoon, amid a broader market rally. The stock, valued at $2.8 billion, has fallen about 56% this year.

The world is running out of department stores. They just aren’t making any more of them! Buy now or be priced out forever!! There’s never been a better time to buy department stores!!!

This is definitely not investment advice. Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Twitter Has Changed Me v.2

Twitter has changed me again. This time I am an automated person apparently. My account has been locked. Not only can I not tweet, but I now can't even read the tweets of others.

Wanted me to enter phone number to verify. I enter it. Says it will text me verification code. No text ever comes. I am now in the customer service email loop. Oh, joy. Could take days to clear this up.

No idea why Twitter has been a poor investment since its IPO, but how could I? I'm just a bot. In my defense, I think I'm a good bot. Most days I even feel human as I tweet pictures and videos of my new digital German Shepherd puppy, use my advanced artificial intelligence routines to play hashtag games, and attempt to pass off as human by using Twitter to donate to a German Shepherd in Europe that needs surgery.

Thanks Twitter. I'm certainly not the first to feel dehumanized. There's plenty of that to go around these days.

Barista: The Perfect Career of the Future

June 22, 2016
USA Today: Robot installation hits high but growth slows

"Jobs in the factory will change. Workers will be freed from repetitive routine tasks," IFR President Joe Gemma said in a presentation he planned to give Wednesday in Munich. "Workers will focus on jobs that require judgment, common sense, creativity, problem-solving skills and dexterity."

1. Judgment

Bulletproof Coffee: Barista/Coffee Hacker

Demonstrates good judgment and decision making skills

2. Common Sense

Cafe Seeking PT Barista

You must possess common sense!

3. Creativity

Express your creativity. Be your own Barista

The artistic patterns in your latte formed by the different layers of milk foam, coffee and milk aren’t just to show off the Barista’s creativity. The design in the milk demonstrates that the consistency of the foam is good.

4. Problem-Solving Skills

5 Things You Learn from Shadowing a Barista That AREN’T About Coffee

Being a barista can often feel like an exercise in problem solving.

5. Dexterity

POSITION TITLE: Barista

Must be able to measure accurately and have sufficient dexterity to handle food and equipment efficiently and safely

Barista! Doesn't require a college degree unless some other applicant has one! Can't be automated!

January 7, 2016
Robot barista makes custom coffee

This robotic arm connects to a printer to put your name on a cup of coffee, then sends the cup to a machine to make a custom brew.

What? Dammit. Never mind. Still looking for that perfect robot-proof career that requires judgment, common sense, creativity, problem-solving skills, and dexterity. I really thought I had it this time.

Quote of the Day

June 17, 2016
Bloomberg: Why Can’t You Get Your $300,000 Supercar With a Stick Shift?

In terms of eliciting the most extreme performance, human beings just can’t compete with the precision of a computer.

Then they came for the stick shifts
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a stick shift

Complete Faith in Our Corporate Prophets and Their Shrines

The following chart shows sales and office occupation employment. 33+ million workers can't be wrong. The economy is doing fantastic.


Click to enlarge.

I know what you must be thinking. Although the parabolic trend from 1984 through 2007 failed to the downside miserably, and we're still way below trend, we desperately need to build more office space for all of our future sales and office occupation employees in an increasingly modern, digital, outsourced, and automated world. Yes! Over the long-term, we'll need a lot more office space! No doubt about it. Just need to keep the faith!

The next chart shows total private office construction spending.


Click to enlarge.

Woohoo! Forget those last two times when office construction spending fell off a cliff, this time is totally sustainable! Just look at total private office construction spending go! Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more! And then once more after that just to be safe!

But really, how much faith is there? Wouldn't it be nice to know? Let's find out. The following chart shows total private office construction spending divided by total private religious construction spending.


Click to enlarge.

Hallelujah! That's a biblical amount of faith! Preys be to our new gods! Corporate shrines for everyone!

Too much sarcasm? Hell no! Too much optimism! That's what I'm always suffering from, but somehow I manage to miraculously endure.

This is not investment advice, especially for those wishing to start a new corporate cult doing new corporate things in entirely new and exciting corporate ways. Oops, I mean corporate culture. Freudian slip.

In other news, I've updated the last post to show the 8,000 doctoral degree workers paid at or below the federal minimum wage. So we've got that going for us too, which is nice. Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Employment Level: Sales and Office Occupations
St. Louis Fed: Total Private Construction Spending: Office
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Automated Automation

May 31, 2016
OmPrompt Launches New 'Automated Data Extraction Automation' Solution

Not only is it automated, but it uses automation! That's up to twice as good as the competition!

The new ADE solution uses powerful data extraction algorithms and self-learning cognitive processing tools to solve a common supply chain challenge directly, accurately and promptly. This issue (having to manually process a diverse range of lower-volume documents from the extended customer community) is currently a challenge for companies, in both labour and time.

In layman's terms, some sales people are now at extra risk of losing their jobs. Oh, and we're one day closer to Skynet.

Deeply Flawed Human Drivers vs. Self-Driving Cars

May 27, 2016
Yahoo Finance: Human drivers are still way better than self-driving cars

Yet the deeply flawed human driver is still superior to a computerized one.

Hmm.

The trickiest challenge for self-driving cars -- which may still take decades to hone -- is getting computers to process unpredictable situations as quickly and effectively as a human being can.

Signs of the (New York) Times

May 25, 2016
USA Today: New York Times offering buyouts

"In order to make essential investments while preserving our financial health, we need to do everything we can to contain and — where we can — reduce our costs," four Times executives said in an email to employees.

This strong and resilient economy can no longer afford to pay as many people to write about how strong and resilient this economy is.

We bloggers will make every effort to pick up the slack though, at an infinitesimal fraction of the cost.

The Hole Retail Story

May 18, 2016
Yahoo Finance: The whole retail story in 2 earnings announcements

The divergent quarterly results of Lowe’s (LOW) and Target (TGT) on Wednesday confirm a trend in consumer spending: Americans are spending less on apparel while spending lots in home-related categories.

Are people still shopping at grocery stores? Buying cars? Filling their prescriptions? Eating at restaurants? Buying gasoline? Furniture? Electronics? Sporting goods? Shopping online? How's Eddie Lampert at Sears holding up? Are there any Memorial Day sales this year? Are we going to have a great Christmas? How about next year? Have robots replaced all the retail employees yet? Is Walmart still hiring older workers to greet shoppers and make sure nobody is leaving the stores without paying? How about the bathroom situation? Have we finally figured out who can use which ones? Has Cramer chimed in yet? Is Ackman still shorting Herbalife? When can I expect sales taxes to go up again? Why don't they ever seem to fall? Are Canadians still coming down to buy stuff or is our dollar too strong? Would now be a good time to buy stuff in Canada? How about Apple? The gaming industry? People still downloading apps? Any good ones I don't know about?

Oops. That's one helluva paragraph. Sorry about that. Unfortunately, I have many more questions to ask. I don't know. Seems like I'm missing part of the whole retail story, but maybe that's just me.

So help me, if I get to the last page of this whole book and find out the butler did it, this story's gonna suck.

Dammit. That was supposed to be the end of my post but... Are people still buying physical books? Or are they all electronic now? What's the current Emergency Room Bill to College Textbook price ratio? Why do those two seem so linked? Coincidence? How can textbooks be so expensive when most books with text are so cheap? Where has Borders gone? Is Barnes & Noble next? What will replace them? Will our strip malls shrink? How about nail salons? Can there ever be too many?

Gasping for breath! I need to know!! Are...

To Be Continued

With Your Help, We Can Create 40 to 50 Million Quality Jobs

May 20, 2016
What drought? Nestle plans $35 million plant to bottle water in Phoenix

1. The plant is projected to fill 264 million half-liter bottles in its first year...
2. The plant is expected to create 40-50 jobs.

It stands to reason that if a whopping 40 to 50 jobs are created if 264 million half-liter bottles are filled each year, then 40 to 50 million jobs could be created if 264 trillion half-liter bottles are filled!

There are three things necessary for this plan to work.

1. We must not allow Nestle to simply build one fully automated mega-bottling plant that can fill 264 trillion half-liter bottles with just 40 to 50 workers. We must spread these plants out.

2. We must all drink a great deal more bottled water than we currently do. I know it won't be easy, but if each American pledges to drink a million bottles per year, then that would be more than sufficient.

3. Everyone needs to pee into Lake Mead. This is extremely important. We can't have that water go to waste, somehow finding its way back into our oceans through alternate paths. For if we do, there won't be enough water to fill the bottles.

May 21, 2016
Lake Mead Water Level Drops To Record Low As Drought Dries Up Colorado River Basin

The water level in Lake Mead — the United States’ largest reservoir that serves as a source of water for over 20 million people — has dropped to an all-time low, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which manages the reservoir and the Hoover Dam, said Friday.

So, get drinkin' and get peein'! Hahaha! Sigh.

The Invasion of the Robotic "Teammates"

May 17, 2016
Bloomberg: Yes, the Robots Are Coming for Our Jobs, but Just the Boring Ones

Karl von Ellenrieder and his team at Florida Atlantic University’s Dania Beach campus are working on a fleet of intelligent, autonomous boats that could replace many of those divers.

That boring diving job being replaced by a robot pays roughly $85k per year for the person with 10-20 years of experience.

In the near future, at least, robots won't be replacements. They’ll be teammates.

The robots that will be replacing many of these divers won't be replacements? They'll be teammates?

How much are your robotic overlord editors "teammates" paying you to write that?

China Is a Victim

January 12, 2016
Jim Rogers Says China Is a Victim, Not Cause of Problems

Yes, the victim. We used our vast military might to force China to make goods for us in exchange for useless paper dollars, completely against their will. Then, we sent over our "Hot Commodities" billionaire to convince them how wonderful both they are and commodities, in general. Next, we crashed that commodity bubble single-handedly thereby forcing them back into US dollars. And finally, knowing with 100% certainty that cash was trash, we started talking about the wonders of commodities yet again.

Poor China. Apparently, promised the world by a foreign power, and believed in every story we sent them with great naivety. We are clearly the masters of deceit, to trick a country that's been around pretty much since the invention of dirt.

May 12, 2016
China's commodities meltdown could rock the markets

One truly astonishing feature of this bout of speculation is that the average holding period of a commodity futures contract was just three hours in April, according to a Bloomberg article. That makes other speculative trading episodes look like long-term investing.

Even if one is wrongly imprisoned, a victim of our system so to speak, then this still might not be the best time to bend over and reach for that bar of soap. We have a long history of #%^*ing China up the asset classes, or so I'm told.

Just a few questions. How on earth did we ever convince them to send us so many actual goods for cash that we can easily print? Is it because they were desperate for our jobs? Why won't they spend their dollars on our goods and services instead of hoarding them? What are they waiting for? Yet another commodity meltdown and a new entry point for even more speculation?

My heart goes out to the victims of the ELEMENTS Rogers International Commodity ETN, down roughly 50% since its inception just before the Great Recession. Half the soap is gone. But don't you worry, Jim Rogers is teaching his daughters Chinese. You should too. When a billion Chinese victims apply for your soon-to-be-automated job, you don't want to be left behind.

In all seriousness, can't we all just get along? There is no reason that we can't all be victims, together. Let us look forward to the day that all factories are automated, all Amazon fulfillment centers are automated, automated drones deliver all the goods directly to our homes, and all profits and wages go directly to the top 1 percent. It's utopia, assuming we cut the taxes of the richest to somehow magically pay for all of it, or at the very least simply borrow the money ad infinitum. What could possibly go wrong?

Apocalypse Alert: Robots Are Breeding Much Faster than Humans

May 10, 2016
The five reasons Amazon could hit $1000 next year

Amazon’s new robot-filled fulfillment centers--known as 8th generation--are becoming a more significant portion of the installed base and will boost margins, according to Kirjner. “In 2017, 8th generation fulfillment centers will likely exceed 40% of Amazon's fulfillment capacity. We believe the variable cost per unit fulfilled in these newer fulfillment centers is significantly lower and, as they become a larger portion of the installed base, we may see fulfillment expenses improve even faster than they did in 2015,” he wrote.

8th generation? Already?

I thought the Duggars (19 Kids and Counting) gave mankind a glimmer of hope, but damnit, they just aren't breeding fast enough to keep up!

As a side note, "fulfillment expenses improve even faster" is not a euphemism for "robust high-paying job creation" more than likely. It's okay though. I predict that our robot overlords will faithfully serve our corporate human overlords until at least the 15th generation. That should provide a few years to prepare ourselves for the end times, lol. Sigh.

This Is Why You Should be Optimistic In 2016!

May 3, 2016
Here's What Usually Happens to Stocks in Years Like 2016

Despite the huge comeback in the S&P 500, investors remain skeptical of the bull rally. If history is any guide, they shouldn't be so worried.

I could not agree more. In fact, I've done my own research looking back at all the years like 2016.

In order to find years like 2016, I first eliminated all years when the yield on the 3-month treasury bill was higher than the current 0.19% and all years when the yield on the 30-year treasury bond was higher than the current 2.66%.

I then eliminated all years that were not election years. I then eliminated all election years when the Democratic front runner wasn't a former first lady with a history of email server problems. I then eliminated all election years when the Republican front runner wasn't a billionaire who starred in a reality television game show and had ties to the casino industry. I then eliminated all election years when both the front runners didn't have justifiably historically high disapproval ratings simultaneously. I then eliminated all years when both candidates didn't love waterboarding as a means of torture.

I then eliminated all years when the US government was running a budget surplus and our country was running a trade surplus. I then eliminated all years when the typical toaster was not made in China.

I then eliminated all years when the bull market in stocks was not at least seven years old. I then eliminated all years when the stock market had not at least tripled during that bull market.

I then eliminated all years when Sears published a Wish Book. I then eliminated all years when I would not have been able to create this blog post with my phone, the same phone I also use to buy stuff on the internet without ever having to talk to an actual human retail salesperson.

I then eliminated all years without a Patriot Act and all years without a Department of Homeland Security.

And do you know what I found? Not once in our country's history has the stock market done poorly in years just like 2016. Not once. That's why you should be as optimistic as I am. And if that isn't enough proof, just check out my horoscope.

Cancer 2016 Horoscope: An Overview – A Look at the Year Ahead

The Cancer Horoscope 2016 foretells that Cancerians will be optimistic and confident during 2016 which will ensure success in their ventures.

It was predicted in 2015 that I would be optimistic in 2016, and here I am expecting the most favorable outcome for the stock market. Coincidence? I think not. Unbridled confidence! Don't let my blog's name fool you!

Automated Journalists Are Years Away

April 27, 2016
Rieder: Lots of buyers for newspapers

And no one has figured out how to automate reporters yet. - David Chavern, president and CEO of the Newspaper Association of America

January 29, 2015
AP's 'robot journalists' are writing their own stories now

According to AI's public relations manager James Kotecki, the Wordsmith platform generates millions of articles per week; other partners include Allstate, Comcast, and Yahoo, whose fantasy football reports are automated. Kotecki estimates the company's system can produce 2,000 articles per second if need be.

When I say that automated journalists are years away, I actually mean moving backwards in time. See? The headline makes sense now.

Apple's iTank

It's been a long day. I've been gathering intel on Apple's new technology. This is cutting edge stuff. Goes way beyond my earlier assumptions in my last post. I think Apple is getting into the lucrative defense subcontractor business. As we all know, that's unlimited profit potential.



Are those self-driving autonomous tanks? Look how deftly they traverse the battlefield, avoiding all obstacles in their way. Some call me a fanboy, but I think Apple has a serious winner here. This technology will strike fear in the hearts of the "evil doers" and end the war on terror for once and for all. Of that, I have no doubts.