The Sarcasm Report v.291

February 8, 2023
lifehacker: The Biggest Mistakes People Make When Trying to Eat Healthy

Eating enough to stay healthy is important, and eating enough protein is a big part of that.

And if you continue to scroll down after reading that article...

February 10, 2023
lifehacker: Get Free Wendy's Jr. Bacon Cheeseburgers Until Sunday

You can only get one per visit, but you can visit as many times as your stomach desires.

Bacon, cheese, and beef sure are great protein sources! Visit as many times as your stomach desires! You know, for your health! Woohoo! ;)

Food at Home

The following chart shows the natural log of the consumer price index for food at home. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added a long-term trend channel in green, a steeper short-term trend line in blue (heading into the Great Recession), and an even steeper short-term channel in red (our current trajectory).

The stock market sure doesn't like it. Not one bit. Isn't feeling all that confident about a soft landing. Starting to wonder why the captain's warning of "some pain" while wearing a parachute?

It's not all bad news. Hey, at least we're sitting in the middle of the long-term trend channel. Small comfort, I know.

Brace for Impact

The following chart shows the natural log of the consumer price index for food and beverages. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added green and red trend lines to show how the growth has changed.

This is your captain. While a soft landing is still theoretically possible, please brace for impact. Place your feet firmly on the floor, tuck your arms and elbows close to your sides, bend over your thighs as tightly as possible, and tuck your head as closely as possible to the surface you are most likely to strike when slammed forward. Thank you for choosing to fly with Federal Reserve Airlines. We hope you have enjoyed your flight, the upcoming landing notwithstanding.

Trading Update V

Sold some VPU @ 150.40 to buy TSN @ 75.63.

New IRA asset allocation:

This is definitely a stock that I intend to hold long-term. I'm overweighting it and bracing for more pain. Not only has Tyson been in falling knife mode for the past month, but the White House isn't at all happy that the company raised meat prices during a pandemic. Makes inflation look bad, as if there aren't enough reasons already that inflation looks bad.

I suspect that the pace of my trading will soon grind to a halt, now that VPU is down to just 20% of my IRA. The buying and selling seems mostly done. Now it's time for the holding. If I thought that there was even a chance that we'd soon see 1% real yields on the 30-year TIPS then I would not be taking such risks.

Peak Salmon and Halibut?

Chart shows the producer price index for salmon (blue), halibut (red), and meats (black) each independently divided by the consumer price index for all items. January 1950 = 1. Chart therefore shows how the real producer prices for these items have changed relative to what they were in 1950.

Is anyone keeping track of all the prosperity we've "borrowed" from future generations since the dotcom bubble popped? Seems like there should be a national database for it, you know, for posterity.

On a brighter note, the real producer price for meat is quite a bit cheaper. And to the best of my knowledge, it's not even that soylent yet. That said, meat hasn't exactly been getting cheaper since 2000. You could more easily see that in the chart if salmon and halibut weren't so shocking and awing.

Thoughts on Food, Services, Health, and the Economy

The following chart compares the annual percentage change in personal consumption expenditures of food and services.

Looking forward to a return to normal.

There are three reasons we spent more money on food since the pandemic started. First, we have more food stockpiled. Second, our food has been delivered. Third, we have not been as price conscious. Taking advantage of sales hasn't been nearly as important to us over the past year. All of these things will soon reverse once we are vaccinated.

There is a disturbing fourth reason that food expenditures are up for others.

March 11, 2021
One year later, a new wave of pandemic health concerns

Weight change is a common symptom when people are having difficulty coping with mental health challenges. A majority of adults (61%) reported experiencing undesired weight changes, since the start of the pandemic, with more than 2 in 5 (42%) saying they gained more weight than they intended. Of this group, adults reported gaining an average of 29 pounds (with a median gain of 15 pounds), and 1 in 10 (10%) said they gained more than 50 pounds. For the 18% of Americans who said they lost more weight than they wanted to, the average amount of weight lost was 26 pounds (median of 12 pounds).

50 pounds is a lot to gain in one year, and a surprisingly large number of people managed to do it. Ouch.

For what it is worth, I intentionally lost about 10 pounds. It wasn't from eating less. I chose to walk more. I've averaged 6.7 miles per day during the pandemic. Trying to make a permanent habit out of both walking and cycling. Bought a bicycle late last year and will soon be riding it again. I'm optimistic that even more weight will be lost this summer.

I'm more optimistic in general. I do think inflation will be transitory. I do think interest rates will remain low. If true, I'm not even that concerned about debt. I don't currently see a stock market bubble or a housing bubble (although I do see pockets of great excess). Like Japan, it won't be a great era for savers, but that's okay. There are worse things than ZIRP. Not expecting the roaring twenties, but perhaps the meowing twenties? Could that be a thing?

I'm basing my optimism on a reversion to the mean, or lack thereof. We are continually told that when interest rates normalize, blah, blah, blah. I am arguing that rates have been normalized. They've been decaying exponentially for 40 years. That's what has been normal. Unless someone can give me a good reason why rates will soon stop decaying then I'm going to continue to believe that they will continue to decay. More money deposited in banks certainly won't lead to higher interest rates. Any counterargument based purely on excess money makes no sense to me at all. And man, has there ever been more excess money than right now?

This is not investment advice. My optimism is tempered. A friendly reminder that this is still an Illusion of Prosperity blog. The meowing twenties could easily become the hissing thirties. Sustainable and stable is not the long-term path we find ourselves on. Each economic crisis has been worse than the last.

New York City Restaurant Employment

The exponential growth trend failed in 2015, the Fed started raising rates in 2016, and then the pandemic hit in 2020. What's next? Meteor?



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality: Full-Service Restaurants in New York City, NY

Thoughts on CPI and Food

Yawn. What about food?

Yawn. What about producer prices for food?

Yawn.

Can't promise that I won't be screaming in abject terror at some point in the future though, especially if I am wrong about the future of ZIRP, inflation, and/or long-term interest rates.

My Long-Term Inflation Expectations Remain Well-Anchored

 

This is a can of petite diced tomatoes. Target will currently sell it to us for 49 cents. It’s not on sale. That’s the normal price.

If we spend $35, they will ship it to us for free. If we buy 72 cans, that would cost us $35.28. Each 14.5oz can weighs almost exactly 1 pound (due to the extra weight of the empty can). That means the total shipment weighs a whopping 72 pounds (expect some dented cans).

At the beginning of the pandemic, we also paid 49 cents for these cans at Target. How is it that pandemic hoarding, intermittent shortages, and massive monetary stimulus have not caused the price to go up? How can Target continue to ship us goods this cheap even as online shipping demand has skyrocketed?

It’s not just petite diced tomatoes. I’m only using this as an example. It’s pretty much everything we’ve stocked up on from Target, Costco, Walmart, and Amazon since the beginning of the pandemic.

In related news, it’s not too late to read the 2008 Hyperinflation Special Report on Shadowstats. For what it is worth, I’m personally waiting until their $175 subscription price starts inflating. I need to see them put their money where their mouth is. Even a token one cent increase to $175.01 would attract my attention. Is it too much to ask? It’s been the same price for more than a decade. In my opinion, it’s very difficult to sell a hyperinflation story without at least one subscription price increase in 12+ years!

Our government is definitely taking a “shock and awe” approach to thwarting deflation. Will it be enough to counter the increased pace of automation due to a pandemic though? Robots don’t get sick, nor do they require living wages. Based on Japan’s “success” at thwarting deflation, my long-term bet is on the robots. Their present seems to be our future.

January 1, 2021
NHK World - Japan: Autonomous delivery robots hit Japanese streets

A robot knocks on your door to deliver a freshly brewed cup of coffee, which you ordered just minutes earlier with one tap on your smartphone. This vision of the future could soon turn into reality as Japanese companies have started testing autonomous delivery robots on public streets. This comes as the need for social distancing amid the coronavirus pandemic has pushed up demand for autonomous delivery services.

It Burns

It burns. Hahaha!!! :)

The One Flaw in My Thanksgiving Day Plan

How To Look Like Gerard Butler in the Movie 300

To build muscle, cut body fat, and have enough energy to train for six hours a day, he had to eat:

* Insane amounts of protein (which can be found in eggs, grilled chicken, tuna and other fish, steak, protein shakes, and protein bars),

I naturally assumed that eating insane amounts of protein would be the hardest part and that training for six hours a day would therefore be relatively easier.

Turns out, in hindsight, that eating insane amounts of turkey was a lot easier than it looked. The more I ate, the more confident in the plan I became!

Unfortunately, six hours of physical training became nearly impossible once the completely unexpected napping began. Blindsided by a 25-sigma event black swan!!

Live and learn! :)

Don't Cook That Turkey!

I just got this email from Yelp. Seemed very important, what with the exclamation point and all. Thought I better pass it along ASAP!!

Don't Cook That Turkey!

Whew! Hopefully, Yelp and I saved many lives this holiday. It isn't all about us though. It's about giving back to our community on Thanksgiving. I hope everyone has a very special day, free from gastrointestinal emergency room visits.

Not sure which part of the cooking process is bad. I deleted the email before I had a chance to gloss over any new scientific research related to their dire warning. I think it is safe to say that raw turkey is finally safe to eat again though. I suspect that there have been many advancements in food sterility in the aftermath of the Chipotle disaster, but who can really say for sure?

Shame on me. Bad Mark. Bad! Bad! ;)

Disclaimer: This is NOT lack of cooking advice. For the love of all that is holy, cook the bejesus out of the frickin' turkey!!

Dead Squirrel Beer

November 20, 2016
The $20,000 Rare Craft Beer That Comes Packaged in a Squirrel

“I absolutely love the beautiful, yet disturbing nature of taxidermy, so packaging our most evocative beer in such an unconventional, BrewDog way made sense,” says Watt. “Beer is art. Art is also art.”

I'm trying to figure out which turns my stomach more. Drinking this particular beer straight from the bottle? Or paying $20,000 for the privilege to do so?

Election 2016: I Am Very Optimistic!

November 5, 2016
NBC News: Election Chaos Fears Have Preppers Stockpiling Survival Food

Reddie predicts a Trump win that has the urban poor revolting across the nation and the imposition of martial law to quell riots and the burning of businesses.

But he's also getting ready for the possibility of a Clinton victory that he says could lead to conflict with Russia and "World War 3 in 2017."

Either way, Freddy's ready - with both supplies and a word of advice.

Wow! On a relative basis, I am very optimistic. My plans involve sharing a bowl of popcorn on election night and playing with our dog (to help ease the traumatic election pain).

He has to use a pseudonym to protect his supply from any future hungry neighbors, he told NBC News.

I've been keeping extra supplies on hand as well, but mainly because I think they've been out performing treasury bills on an inflation adjusted basis. I also tend to stock up when things are cheap. Take this week for instance. Del Monte tomatoes are just 49 cents per can at QFC when bought in multiples of 10. Um, yes please!!

I really don't think an "I'm sorry, but we're fresh out of food." will cut it if mobs of angry disenfranchised starving masses show up at our door in his vision of the election apocalypse. I say this because about 200 scary looking children begging for food showed up on the last day of October this year. We managed to appease them with mini chocolate candy bars and Dum Dums. So yes, there is a precedence. ;)

The Sarcasm Report v.264

November 2, 2016
My Cat Is Sick, Expensive, and Keeping Me in Debt. Is It Time to … You Know?

Here’s the major issue: I have an elderly cat whom I love very, very much. She’s quite happy, but her medical care for a number of chronic illnesses runs about $600 to $700 a month for specialized food, prescription medicines, quarterly vet visits, and other needs. This is quite a burden. And if it wasn’t for this expense, which has been going on for four years now, I could—at least mathematically—not only be out of debt but have a cool $10,000 in savings.

You and your husband earn a combined $160,000 per year (a mere three times the median household income). Your gross income is only $13,333 per month. At $650 per month, your cat's current expenses add up to 5% of your combined gross income. Oh, yes. It is definitely your beloved cat that is keeping you in debt. Shame on her!

You have my permission to kill your happy cat that you love very, very much. Once that burden is removed, think how much happier you all will be. And remember, you are never obliged to pay for those you love, no matter how much they might depend on you or how much you might love them. It's all purely discretionary. Further, she is not actually your child. You did not give birth to her! You aren't even the stepmother. You should have opted for the "cool $10,000 in savings" years ago! Think how many younger and cuter kittens you could have had with that!

But pets are not children. We may refer to ourselves as pet mommies, but we aren’t obliged to pay for their medical care. While being an animal-lover feels necessary to you and me, it is all but the definition of discretionary spending.

See? I am not alone in my thinking. We animal-lovers need to stick together.

In all seriousness, our pets are our kids. We do feel obliged to pay for their medical care. If you cannot afford to pay 5% of your annual gross income to keep beloved happy pets alive in their elderly years, then perhaps you should not have pets in the first place.

Live and let live.

Seriously, if you really love your cat and your cat is indeed happy, then let her live.

The Sarcasm Report v.263

October 20, 2016
USA Today: Your groceries may be cheaper, but farmers and supermarkets feel the pain

Christopher says many shoppers are using the savings to buy more groceries.

This is great news. Market forces are finally tackling the widespread problem of shrinking waistlines in America, says my secret source, an anonymous executive of a for-profit statin drug manufacturer.

Michelle Morris, 45, of Canton, Mich., estimates her family is saving $10 to $20 a week at the grocery store. As a result, they’re eating out less frequently...

More great news. Now that food prices have fallen, people can finally afford to eat at home instead of dining out. There's nothing quite like anecdotal evidence to support a questionable implied theory.

The Sarcasm Report v.262

October 13, 2016
TheStreet: How to Protect Yourself From a 15% Correction in the Stock Market

Though Bartenstein did not make any specific recommendations, he was positive on consumer discretionary, healthcare, energy and financial sectors.

It is a little known fact that the best way to protect yourself from a 15% stock market correction is to buy stocks. Zig when others say to zag. That's what I say.

Next up: learn how to protect yourself from Diabetes this Halloween by eating all the candy all at once. It is a little known fact that once you've gorged on all the candy, you won't be tempted to eat any more.

Candy, it's what's for dinner.

A Modest Proposal?

Wikipedia: A Modest Proposal

Swift suggests that the impoverished Irish might ease their economic troubles by selling their children as food for rich gentlemen and ladies. This satirical hyperbole mocks heartless attitudes towards the poor, as well as British policy toward the Irish in general.

Although child-care costs are soaring since 2009, tuition and fees at 4-year public schools are up 71% in the last decade, and real median household income has generally been falling since 1999, that sort of satirical "modest proposal" hyperbole could never happen in America!

As seen at Whole Foods:

Facebook: "Boneless Skinless Children's Thighs"

From the comments:

A Modest Proposal?

D'oh! I stand corrected. The rich gentlemen and ladies? Let them eat cake our children! ;)

The Sarcasm Report v.255

June 17, 2016
Yahoo Finance: America's hidden epidemic: food addiction

We hide it so well!



That's it. I'm ending my food addiction.

I went cold turkey today, with mayonnaise, three sliced olives, a slice of Swiss cheese, and two slices of whole wheat bread. Seriously. Ending an addiction has never been so easy!



What can I say? I'm addicted to the craziest things. Food, water, oxygen, and video games! Ridiculous!

In all seriousness, I don't think we can end our food addiction. We actually do NEED food. It's not like gambling, debt, cigarettes, or cocaine. I think we can all agree that many of us, myself included, would be doing better if we ate less though.

Eat fewer calories. Burn more calories.

This isn't exactly rocket science. My optimal diet book still needs more work though. There are 20% more words than needed.

Calories? Eat fewer. Burn more.

Much better! Needs a title. Hey, why don't I just move the contents to the title? That way the book won't need any pages! Think of the money that will be saved on printing costs! Genius!

Uh, oh. Did I type this in public? Don't you dare steal all five words of my optimal diet book! It could be worth millions! Hahaha! :)

Feasting on Our Prosperity

The optimists look at the markets and see wonderful things. Housing prices are rising. Stock prices are rising. Bond prices are rising. What's not to like? Everyone wins.

This is what I see.

December 16, 2015
The Fed's rate hike...in 2 minutes

5. Savers will finally make a little money: If you put money in your savings account, you will slowly start to earn interest over the next couple years as rates start climbing higher. Savers haven't earned any interest since 2008.

On that day, the 30-year inflation protected treasury bond yielded 1.34%. Today it yields just 0.78%. In the eyes of the bond market, there will be no future harvest for savers. The seed corn is continually being eaten.

We can prove this is true for treasury bonds. After taxes, a 30-year TIPS will not provide much real growth going forward, if any. We can't prove if it is true of housing and stocks. However, when there is a fat man gorging on steak at your dinner table, one might assume that he's also planning to gorge on the mashed potatoes and cheesecake, if he hasn't already.

So what do you do? You've got a choice. You can take the moral high ground and hope there will be some cheesecake left for you, or you can try to eat a bit faster.

The fat man has the advantage though. While he's gorging on cheesecake, he'll be telling you how to cheesecake-cost-average into the dessert. You know, take small bites every few minutes just in case better cheesecake magically appears.

When I see a bargain I never dollar-cost-average. I don't say to myself, "Hey, Coca-Cola is on sale. 4 12-packs for $11! Perhaps I should dollar-cost-average instead of backing up the truck." So why should I do it with my investments? Perhaps if I don't trust an investment to meet my needs or trust that an investment actually is a bargain, then I shouldn't be buying that investment in the first place. Just a theory.

The TIPS and I-Bonds I purchased in the past will more than likely meet my modest needs. That's good enough for me. Those who "need" 8% returns from real estate and/or stocks from here will more than likely be sadly disappointed. The fat man's been gorging on the seed corn. In other words, it's getting harder and harder to make easy money off of easy money.

This has definitely not been an environment that has rewarded procrastination. If you've been sitting on the sidelines for 7 years, watching your seed corn being eaten, then you're kind of out of luck now. Much of it is gone. Sorry about that. :(

This is not investment advice.