New Year's Resolutions for 2014

1. Climb more stairs.
2. Eat more food.

Hey, I'm just trying to be realistic! If I really go all out on #1 then #2 is going to happen anyway. ;)

2013 was a rough year for me. For two straight years I stuck to the plan. I climbed a minimum of 20 extra flights of stairs each and every day. Our cat died in the spring of 2013 and some weight started going back on. Like many, I eat more when I'm feeling down. I stuck to the plan just the same though.

In July of 2013, I seriously sprained my ankle. It happened at a rest stop 250 miles from home. I drove the rest of the way and then went straight to the emergency room. Based on its current condition and the swelling, they gave me the talk about how fractures aren't so bad. Fortunately, it wasn't fractured. It was an extremely bad sprain though. It prevented me from doing any climbing at all for months (unless one counts hobbling around the house on crutches), which completely took out the entire summer's hiking season. The lack of activity also put a nail in my weight loss coffin. Needless to say, I was feeling down. Sigh.

Speaking of injuries, our dog Honey has been through many surgeries in the past year or so (to the tune of $12,000+ in various vet bills, liver surgery being the biggest). Her most recent surgery was to have several teeth removed. That was just a few weeks ago. They broke while she was playing with her soft toys. Yeah, soft. Even the vet can't understand how she did that. She said her teeth were really strong and hard to extract, what was left of them anyway. It's a mystery within a conundrum. She's doing excellent right now though and if asked, she'd definitely say the medical attention was worth it. They believe she can live out her normal lifespan.

So anyway, hopefully much of that bad news is now behind me. I've got some pent-up climbing demand and I intend to put it to work. I've been planning to make 2014 a banner year. Midlife crisis? I don't think it is but I would not swear to it in court, lol. I was a bit discouraged recently because my ankle still isn't back to 100% (nearly 6 months later). I slowed down my pace considerably in recent weeks and my ankle is doing pretty well in response. Surprisingly, my legs are holding up great. I did several marathon sessions recently as a test. The forced rest has not hampered my leg strength to a noticeable degree.



The past few months were spent climbing enough to reset the time on the stair climber to a nice starting point in preparation for 2014 (much of it at 50 feet per minute in 5 minute sprints). That's 0 months, 18 days, 0 hours, and 0 minutes of climbing since I purchased it roughly 14 years ago (minus a trivial amount of time that was on it when I bought it new).

I'm going to climb at a consistent 25 feet per minute in 2014. It's a leisurely pace that I can maintain fairly indefinitely. I would have set the pace higher if not for my ankle, but it will be plenty sufficient for what I intend to do. It's definitely enough to make me sweat, especially at the one hour mark (700+ calories per hour at my present weight).

50 miles of vertical is my minimum goal. It will take me 10,560 minutes. That's exactly 7 days and 8 hours of exercise. I'll need to average roughly 30 minutes per day (slightly more than that to cover when I'm potentially sick or out of town of course).

0:25:08:00

Or bust! That's the minimum time I wish to see a year from now. You won't be getting any updates between now and December 31, 2014. No record keeping this time. I'm letting the climber do the work. I promise to make every effort to post its time on that day (the exception being anything outside of my control), and that should be reason enough to keep me motivated. I like games and this is definitely a game now. This game starts at midnight! This is in addition to any hiking/climbing I do in the real world next summer (and I plan to do plenty).

As a side note, I would not consider doing this had I not turned climbing 20 flights of stairs each and every day into a nearly permanent habit (ankle injury notwithstanding) several years ago. Baby steps for the win.

It is also my intent to make climbing 20 flights of stairs each and every day a permanent habit again. Seems odd to use the "again" word, but it is the best I can do. Would you believe that I actually asked the nurse in the emergency room if I could simply scoot up the stairs on my butt 20 times per day just to keep the habit going? She told me no! The ankle needs to remain elevated and get rest! Seriously. (I'm fairly sure she thought I was nuts for asking. I just really didn't want to end the streak! Hahaha!)

And lastly, Happy New Year!! May prosperity flow like warm slop to pigs on a cold frosty morning! Bliss! Or something like that anyway. Feel free to come up with a better analogy. ;)

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.023

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I went 13 straight days at 211. I made an attempt to hold the line once 210 was breached. Some might argue that the seasonal peak is in. Others might argue that my girlfriend made a batch of brownies a few days ago though and they are all gone now. You'll see that damage in May's chart. Oops. :)


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I'm not at all worried about the long-term trend. That's all that really matters to me. I'm confident it is still down, especially if this is factored in. Further, hiking season is officially here. I intend to do some this weekend. The weather is predicted to be fantastic.

May 3, 2013
No school due to great weather: Seattle principal gives students rare ‘sun day’ off

“In a world that’s got a lot hard things going, its’ fun to create a moment joy,” Sampson said.

No joke.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

40:57

December 31, 2012
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.019

On the 5th of December, I set what I think is a new all-time personal best of 44 minutes and 57 seconds to climb 200 flights of stairs.

The stars aligned. I got a good night's sleep (which is rare since I am an insomniac most nights). The sun was out. I mowed the backyard and weeded the front yard to some degree. I was therefore in good spirits. I worked out to the second episode of the first season of Alias. It was apparently motivating enough to knock exactly 4 minutes off my best time. It took me just 40 minutes and 57 seconds to climb 200 flights today.

It is not a coincidence that the time ended in 57 seconds again. Call it a 3 second safety buffer. I started off at a 50 feet per minute pace. At first I thought I could get down under 45 minutes (with the intent of slowing down at some point). That's how long the episode was (no commercials, Comcast On Demand). 44 minutes started looking doable. I then started shooting for 43 minutes. Hope rose that I could do it under 42 minutes. And lastly, I really pushed near the end to make it just under 41 minutes. My pace varied from 47 feet per minute to 53 feet per minute (the final push at the end). I averaged 48.8 feet per minute.

Under 40 minutes was right out. First, I weigh about 6 pounds more than the last time I made a serious attempt. Second, I was alone in the house (my girlfriend had errands to run). Third, there is no phone in the room with the stair climber (to call an ambulance in theory, lol). Fourth, I don't have health insurance at the moment.

I managed to give myself a temporary dehydration headache. I drank a 12 ounce glass of Gatorade before I started. I drank another 12 ounces as I was climbing. I followed it up with yet another 12 ounces after I was done. That was definitely not enough liquids. Once I realized that I was on a record pace, I didn't want to stop to get more fluids though.



I felt like Ted Stryker attempting to land a plane. Let's just say that I don't think I'll ever get over Macho Grande. ;)

Niesen

Alongside the path of the Niesenbahn is the longest stairway in the world with 11,674 steps. It is open only once a year to the public for a stair run.

Holy mother of...

Spring has finally sprung. It hasn't shown up in my weight yet, but I've been exercising a lot more over the past week. The day before yesterday I watched the first episode of the first season of Alias while working out (at a much slower pace). There are a LOT more episodes to go! It is very likely that I'll be climbing well more than the minimum 20 flights per day in the coming months. Once again, 20 flights remains my minimum though. It keeps me in the game and allows me to climb as many as I like whenever I like. Over the past few months, I've only been doing the minimum. It was clearly enough exercise if today is any indicator.

There was very little pain (other than the slight dehydration headache which was entirely preventable). My legs are not sore right now. The limiting factor was my cardiovascular system. It was the air I could breathe in and how fast my heart was beating that mostly decided my speed. I'm definitely not a believer in the no pain, no gain theories, especially when it comes to exercise. All it takes is modest and consistent exercise each and every day to make a huge impact overall. Baby steps! 20 flights a day seemed like a chore when I started. Now they seem trivial. It takes just 4 minutes now (or 5 minutes if I'm feeling especially lazy).

Give it a try. You might like it. Walk up the street once a day. Climb some stairs. Just do something that you think you can do each and every day for the rest of your life, even if it seems trivial. You will not regret it. I sure haven't. Anything is better than nothing.

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.022

I continue to climb at least 20 extra flights of stairs each and every day.


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It doesn't look that great but... I gained weight last March too. I guess that's just par for the [seasonally adjusted] course.


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I'm down 7 pounds since this time last year. The long-term trend works for me. I originally expected it to take "3-4 years to get down to my goal". Still seems plenty doable. No pain. No gain. (Not sure that's how they intended me to view it, lol.)

I mowed the yard yesterday (first time this season). I also did some weeding today. The seasonal effects should now start working in my favor. June is when the effects really kick in though (if the last two years are any indicator).

I'm also zipping through the 20 flights of stairs. Some days I use the physical stairs (2 sessions of 10 flights each) and some I just go 4 minutes continuously on the stair-stepper (50 feet per minute). It also keeps me in good enough shape so that I can climb [nearly] as many stairs as I like without giving it a second thought. :)

I'm very much looking forward to hiking season this year. It has nothing to do with weight loss. That will just be a bonus.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.021

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It has not been a good month, but you could have probably guessed that from my posting activity. That said, I continue to climb at least 20 flights of stairs each and every day. It is definitely a permanent habit now. Today I climbed 100. What motivated me? The incredibly uplifting Alice in Chains of course, lol.

Dirt (Alice in Chains album)

The songs on the album focused on depression, anger, anti-social behavior, drug use, war, death, and other emotionally charged topics.

Oops! ;)

In all seriousness, that's a great album. Pretty dark though!


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The death of our pet cat near the end of January marks the turning point. I think it was a trigger for allowing winter's doldrums to take center stage. Let's just say summer can't get here fast enough.

On a lighter note, I'm roughly 7 pounds lighter than I was on February 28, 2012. This is pretty much in line with what I would have predicted at this time last year. The path to get here was not nearly so predictable.

I'm also seeing a pretty substantial improvement in my ability to play scales on the guitar. I played pretty much every day in February. Seeing improvement is a great motivator. It doesn't burn many calories though. Go figure.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.020

I continue to climb at least 20 flights of extra stairs each day.


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I thought I had a handle on winter's seasonal effects this year but the death of our pet cat on the 21st altered my mood to the downside. I tend to eat more when I'm feeling down. I think the turning point is fairly visible in the chart. It's not all bad. Tigger nearly made it to the age of 18. He also went fairly peacefully.

I'm not starting February off all that well. My weight is already back to 206. I walked 7 miles yesterday and also climbed 300 flights of stairs as a rare conscious attempt to compensate. I'm not sure it helped all that much though. My appetite picked up as well.


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This too shall pass. The long-term trend in blue is all that really matters to me. I have no reason to believe that it isn't sustainable. As of today, I'm right on trend (not seen in the chart). Those expecting me to get into the blue zone well ahead of schedule (perhaps myself included) might take comfort in the wisdom of the Man in Black.

Get used to disappointment.

In other news, I will be posting another missing jobs report soon. I may not be fully back from my break, but I feel somewhat obligated to share that bit of sarcastic joy. Oh yeah, I'm feeling winter's effects today. There's no denying it.

And lastly, in January I made my I-Bond and EE-Bond purchases. So ends my trading for the year.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.019

All things considered, it's been a pretty good month. I continue to climb a minimum of 20 extra flights of stairs each day.


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I started the month off at 204, which is my lowest weight in years. I ended at that same weight. Go figure.

I can really feel the seasonal effects. For the most part I managed to offset them (either consciously or subconsciously, not exactly sure which).

On the one hand, my girlfriend made 6 pies since Thanksgiving. Since there are just two of us, I think it would be safe to say that roughly 3 of them went into me, lol. The Tillamook ice cream sales this month at the local grocery stores did some damage as well. I'm particularly fond of chocolate and peanut butter with chocolate syrup on top. As I've said from the beginning, this is not a diet plan. I eat what I want and when I want. In my opinion, life's too short to be eating rice cakes.

On the other hand, I walked more than 150 miles outside. Just like last month! It was very enjoyable. Our dog would strongly agree. I also did 3 marathon sessions on the indoor stair climber. On the 5th of December, I set what I think is a new all-time personal best of 44 minutes and 57 seconds to climb 200 flights of stairs. As far as my legs and cardiovascular system go, I consider myself to be in relatively good shape right now.


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I walked outside a minimum of 1.5 miles each and every day since November 1st (averaging about 5 miles per day). I thought it was just a November thing, but I can't seem to stop. Maybe it's turning into a new habit too. Exercise begets exercise.

Once again, it all started with baby steps.

Here's a fun fact. It takes about a minute to climb up and down 5 flights of stairs. I have never regretted doing it afterwards. Something is still better than nothing. Give it a try sometime. You might like how you feel. You've got nothing to lose (except excess weight).

I'll consider jogging if I ever see a jogger smiling. - Joan Rivers

Considering walking! In the rain! With an umbrella! It apparently works for me. I may not be singing in the rain, but I'm smiling more often than not. :)

And lastly...

Happy New Year!

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

Stair Climbing Study

December 13, 2012
The cheat's guide to exercise: Taking the stairs one at a time burns MORE calories than leaping up them

Lead researcher Rodney Kennedy said: 'Given that such improvement resulted from less than 30 minutes per week of moderate exercise, stair climbing in the workplace should be promoted as a health-enhancing physical activity.'

I'm a believer in "baby step" theories. Doing something is definitely better than doing nothing. It doesn't take much of a behavior change to make a big difference if one just sticks to it.

Starting in June of 2011, I have been climbing at least 20 flights of extra stairs each and every day. These days, I generally break it into 4 sets of 5 flights. Now that I'm in relatively good shape, they take about a minute each. That's roughly 28 minutes per week. No big deal!

It took so little to feel so much better. I'm about 20 pounds lighter than when I started. I'm generally doing a lot more activity per day than just 20 flights of stairs though. Exercise begets exercise. 20 flights is still my minimum. It's enough to keep me in the game, so to speak. Some days I just do the bare minimum. No big deal!

No stress. No eating rice cakes. No pain, no pain. I've been doing a lot of walking around the neighborhood in recent months. And I mean a lot! I honestly enjoy it. Rain? Shine? It's all good. That's what umbrellas are for. It all started with baby steps on the stairway.

“Focus on the journey, not the destination. Joy is found not in finishing an activity but in doing it.” - Greg Anderson

That's the difference this time. I'm doing what I think I can do every day for the rest of my life, and not because I feel the need to do it. I do it because I enjoy how it makes me feel.

And on that note, I'm off to walk a 1.5 mile loop around the neighborhood. It's a beautiful night. The air is crisp. I won't have to ask my dog to join me more than once. Dogs somehow inherently know that walking can be fun. And yet it is we humans that need to be trained? Go figure! :)

Thanks to Rik in the comments of this post for bringing the article to my attention.

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.018

I continue to climb a minimum of an extra 20 flights of stairs each day. This month it was pretty much the bare minimum every day.


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It was a good month, especially compared to last November.

Here's the long-term chart.


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Thanksgiving definitely worked against me. You can see the blip in the first chart quite clearly (23rd and 24th). My girlfriend and I have eaten two pumpkin pies since then and are half way through an apple pie. That doesn't even count all the ham I ate. Serious seasonal effect!

So what worked? Well, I had some pent-up walking demand from catching a cold in October. I also had a new pair of waterproof hiking shoes thanks to the recommendation of Mr Slippery (a hiker and blogger). As seen in the following chart, what started off as baby steps just kept growing.


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That's 164.5 miles of outdoor walking. No blisters. Hurray!

That said, hello exponential trend failure. Livin' the dream! Let's call the 29th the point of failure since it is raining hard today and the wind is a bit gusty. I was curious how many miles I could comfortably walk in a month. I might try it again at some point. Our dog certainly loved it.

And lastly, let's assume I could double the distance I walk each month and keep doing it every month. That's pretty much the trend in the chart. How far would I need to walk 32 months from now?

164.5*2^32 = 706,522,120,192 miles

Let's assume I walked 24 hours per day. How fast would I need to be moving?

706,522,120,192 miles per 30-day month = 272,578 miles per second

Let's just say that seems more than a bit unlikely. No, sir. Let's just call it an exponential trend failure today and get it over with.



See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.017

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If you had asked me how it was going on the 17th, I would have said I was roughly on track to repeat last October's weight loss success.

That's not the way it worked out though. I managed to give myself two blisters on my feet (new hiking shoes and pushing my luck with a 6 mile walk) on the 15th. It doesn't end there though. Several days later I caught a head cold that pretty much shut me down entirely for the next 10 days (3 bottles of NyQuil). You can certainly see the effect in the chart. Feed a cold, starve a fever.


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The good news is that even when sick (with blisters on both feet no less), I still managed to climb the extra 20 flights per day. The habit is permanent. There's not a doubt in my mind. When broken into 4 climbs of 5 flights of stairs each, they are trivial to do and fit well within a TV commercial break. I tend to do far more than the minimum of 20. This once again confirms to me that 20 makes a good minimum though. There were certainly many days in October that I did the bare minimum.

I'm directly on the long-term trend lines and I can't complain. I'm hopeful that I won't gain weight like I did last winter. I walked 9 miles over the previous 3 days. It rained every day. My new hiking shoes combined with actual hiking socks has made walking around in Puget Sound's fall weather a lot more enjoyable. I assume it will carry into winter as well. Hat tip to Mr. Slippery for suggesting the change in footwear.

I gave a gluten free diet a chance for the first 4 weeks of October. I saw some initial success in the first few days (placebo?), but there didn't seem to be any follow-through. I do not appear to be gluten sensitive and am therefore back to eating whatever I like. Hey, at least now I know.

On the one hand, I had hoped to see a huge improvement. No such luck. On the other hand, I enjoy many foods with gluten in them. For example, my girlfriend made pound cake a few days ago. That's really hard to pass up.

I think November is getting off to an excellent start. There's leftover Halloween candy but I don't really have much of a candy appetite. I ate about a dozen PayDay candy bars in October. What can I say? They're gluten free! I'm kind of burned out though, and that's a good thing more than likely.

The head cold gave me some cabin fever and I'm therefore looking forward to walking outside a lot more in the next few weeks. I might even try doing an actual hike soon. I'd like to try out the new shoes on something other than pavement. I just need to break them in a bit more first.

And lastly, I'm only a few pounds lighter than I was this time last year. However, I really do think some of it is increased muscle mass. My legs are in much better shape than they were last year. Put another way, perhaps I should have been measuring inches around the midsection instead of pounds on the bathroom scale. In any event, I am confident that the long-term weight trend is in the right direction.

I just keep plugging away each month. There's no hurry. It's a long-term change. All it took to get me started was baby steps. Literally.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.016

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Two steps forward, one step back. Well, sort of. It's not as bad as it looks. I was extremely active in the month of September. I definitely had an appetite to match (this is NOT a diet plan). That said, at least some of this might actually be muscle gain. I can really feel it in my legs.

I knew it was going to be an active month so I actually tracked it. Here's the summary.

* 11,475 vertical feet of physical stairs (1,275 flights at 9' each)
* 9,000 vertical feet on the stair stepper (900 flights at 10' each)
* 13 hours of high intensity yard work (mostly manual thatching)
* 2 1/2 hours walking around the neighborhood
* 2,850 vertical feet of hiking (Little Si and Poo Poo Point)
* 480 vertical feet walking down to the river near my house (2 trips)

That's 4.5 miles of vertical climbing. This is far more activity than I did last September. It completely blew out my minimum 20 flights of stairs per day minimum goal. I did just the minimum on 5 of the days though. It was nice not to feel pressured to do more. Some days I'm just not that into it.

8,000 vertical feet on the stair stepper was actually done in two 4,000 feet marathon sessions. I watched Serenity (again) during one of them and Rise of the Planet of the Apes during the other. That marks the 3rd time in my life that I have done 400 flights on the stair stepper in one day. The last was a record time (just 108 minutes). It's definitely getting easier.

I did two marathon sessions (at a much, much slower pace) last September while watching two movies. How weird is that? September must be marathon movie month. Go figure.

The past two nights I did a bit of a marathon. On Wednesday, I watched the movie Devil while climbing. On Thursday, I watched The Green Hornet. It was a leisurely pace but that did add up to an extra 200 flights each day. Once again, I would not have had the desire (or ability) to do that had I not been climbing the 20 flights each day. As a side note, neither movie was particularly good.

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I'm right on the trend lines. All things considered, I'm actually feeling pretty good about it. I lost a lot of weight last October. It will be interesting to see what happens this year. Is it seasonal? Or not? If it is seasonal, then I may have a secret weapon this winter. I now feel that I am in good enough shape to enjoy ice skating again, I own hockey skates (not that I've ever played hockey on ice), there is an ice rink just 2 miles from my house, and I have a 20-session skate card with 15 left on it. I can't say for sure if I'll find the motivation, but the stars seem aligned.

And lastly, my diet changed a few days ago. It has nothing to do with losing weight. I have had gluten sensitivity symptoms for years and am curious if that's the cause. This will be the 4th consecutive day that I haven't eaten any gluten. The results so far are encouraging. I'm going to avoid gluten for the next few weeks to see if the trend continues.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.015

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I was extremely active this month. The weather's been great. I climbed to Poo Poo Point 4 times in just 6 days (1650' elevation gain each time). That's in addition to this plan's 20 extra flights of stairs each day. I took our dog on one of the trips. I would have taken her more but her feet needed time to recover.

I climbed to Poo Poo Point in just 56 minutes and 30 seconds the last time I tried. I *really* pushed myself. That was nearly 12 minutes off my fastest time (just 6 days previously). I was rewarded with one of these, big time.

I've also been climbing more than the minimum 20 flights of stairs on most days. I've been tending to do five at a time during TV commercial breaks. The doesn't mean I'm going to change the plan though. There are days when I only do 20 and I like having the bar set so low. There's no pressure to do more.

One would think that I would have lost more weight this month being so active. I think the extra exercise went straight to my appetite. I ate big meals after climbing to Poo Poo Point. Out of curiosity, I looked back to August of last year to see what I wrote.

August 31, 2011
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.003

Since I believe this has become a habit, I felt comfortable doing a couple of marathon runs this month (without the risk of burning out on the stair stepper). Last night I watched the movie Wasabi (subtitled) while stair climbing. That was good for over 200 flights (in addition to the 20 flights I did earlier in the day). It was a fairly leisurely pace. It made me hungry. I ate a large meal afterwards so I'm not sure I lost even an ounce overall, lol. That said, I was doing it as an alternative to just sitting on the couch while I watched the movie.

Fall appears to be the time of maximum exercise for me. It makes sense. My allergies tend to get me in the spring. Summer's too hot. Winter's too cold.

Here's the bottom line. This has definitely become a permanent habit. I'm very pleased with the results so far. I expect to eventually get to the blue zone and stay there. It will happen when it happens. Baby steps!

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

Source Data:
SunriseSunset: Sunrise Sunset Calendar

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.014

I continue to climb at least 20 extra flights of stairs each day. I've been tending to do the stairs 5 flights at a time using the stairway in my front hallway. It takes me well less than a minute to do each set. I just run them. This makes them perfect for commercial breaks on the television. Two birds, one stone. It also gets my heart rate up significantly at least 4 times per day. Three birds?


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It's been a good month. I wouldn't read too much into these last two days. I was not making a huge push to improve the charts (nor would I consciously). In sharp contrast, I ate something that didn't agree with me and paid the price. What can I say? Life happens.


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I originally estimated that I was gaining about 3 pounds per year. I figured that if I burned an extra 10 pounds per year then it would take me 3-4 years to get back down to a healthy weight. Although the data is very noisy, I appear to be on track.

I am 8 pounds lighter than I was one year ago today. Is it the pure math of the extra calories I'm expending? Is it being conscious of my weight each and every day? Is it posting these charts for others to see (subconscious peer pressure)? Do I really care? It's working and there has been absolutely no hunger involved. That's all that matters. A trivial change in my behavior is apparently all it takes over the long-term.


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As seen in the chart above, I definitely seem to be swayed by the sun. It's not a perfect match. One reason for the discrepancy may be that the month of maximum daylight is not the month of maximum heat. There's a lag. There's also probably a lag between my mood and the seasons. Fall may be my favorite season. Halloween is a fun holiday. Knowing that yard work season is finally over can't hurt either.

Unfortunately, the end of yard work means that I don't burn as many calories doing yard work (or hiking or doing a variety of other outdoor activities). Combine that with leftover Halloween candy and what do you have? The chart! If it happens again, then I'll make it up next year. No big deal. This is a long-term plan. That said, there's a chance the effect won't be as big this year. Will my behavior subconsciously change now that I've seen the effect? Who knows!

Perhaps I'll alter my plan in the future (once I am in the blue zone in the first two charts) to adjust for these seasonal effects. More stairs in the winter and less in the summer? I'm in no hurry though. It is such a low priority to me. First things first.

And lastly, the weather is not the only thing that affects my mood and/or stress level. I'm not a moody person, but I am easily stressed. That's especially true when I think about our country's long-term economic future. I'm doing that each and every day too. Sigh.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

Source Data:
SunriseSunset: Sunrise Sunset Calendar

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.013

I continue to climb at least 20 extra flights of stairs per day. I also continue to drink at least one extra glass of water. That's it. It takes about 4-5 minutes to do the bare minimum.


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It was a good month. Seasonal effects now appear to be offering a tailwind.


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I am satisfied with the long-term trend. I am 8 pounds lighter than I was a year ago. I have done nothing consciously to limit food intake. Hunger is not a part of this plan.

The trend in red is a basic exponential trend line. It has a flaw though. I know for sure that my weight will not reach zero pounds. I will stabilize at a lower weight that is yet to be determined.

The trend in blue assumes that my weight will stabilize at 190 pounds. This is just a crude guess. I won't know for sure until more data comes in. I tried to estimate it using the data I have so far. It's too noisy. The best fit was the one that said my weight was going to zero. I really don't think that's going to happen, lol.

The following chart shows why the system is working and why I think it will continue to work.


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The chart shows what a 10 calories per day (equivalent to roughly 1/25th of a Twix candy bar) surplus does to a person's weight over time. The tiniest of changes in one's behavior can have huge effects over the long-term. By climbing 20 extra flights, I'm theoretically burning about 70 extra calories each day. I'm probably eating a bit more to compensate, but apparently not enough to matter. Further, by climbing the 20 extra flights of stairs per day I'm also more likely to want to do other things that burn calories. For example, last night I went on a 25 minute walk. The key here is that I wanted to do it. I did not feel obligated.

I'm heading across the state to spend time with my family tomorrow. I'll be there about a week. This will probably be my last post until I get back. Have a great 4th of July! :)

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.012

I'm still counting on seasonal effects to reverse winter's upward trend. In support of that theory, my weight was stable this month and I have just slipped below the 90 day moving average.

It is tempting to set my new goal to be the S&P 500 divided by 6. That would put my current weight target at 213 (1278 / 6). It is certainly doable in the short-term. I could fast this weekend and get there no problem. There are a couple of downsides though.

1. I'd have to change the name to The Hexed Rubicon Weight Loss Plan.
2. I'd be at risk of losing too much weight if the stock market continues to decline.
3. If the S&P 500 miraculously rose to 1500, then I'd have to glutton myself on all that new prosperity.

No, I think I'll just continue to climb 20 extra flights of stairs every day and let nature take its course. It's probably more sustainable over the long-term.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.011

I continue to climb 20 extra flights of stairs each and every day.


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The chart was flat this month.


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It has been my goal to be within the blue zone within the time frame of this chart and to do so with the least amount of effort possible. It's a long-term lazy person's approach.

I've never actually tracked my weight over this long of a time period. I therefore don't yet know how strong the seasonal effects are. All I really know is that I am more active in the summer and tend to eat differently when it is hot.

In theory, the seasonal effects should put me in tailwind mode for the next 6 months. The low point on the chart was hit around Halloween.

June is where the real action begins. That's when I'll finally start to see year over year results. That data should therefore be entirely free of seasonal effects. I suspect that the seasonal effects are strong, but probably not as strong as this chart implies. Some of the decline in the first few months could have easily been a subconscious desire to lose extra weight. In the past, the first few pounds always seemed the easiest to lose.

In any event, it is a permanent habit now.

335 days x 200 feet (20 flights) = 12.7 miles

It does add up. Although it is just a few minutes per day, I can feel it in my legs.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.010

I continue to climb the extra 20 flights of stairs each and every day as a long-term plan. It's been 10 months so far. I'm absolutely convinced that it is a permanent habit now.

The good news is that I'm down about 9 pounds from when I started. The bad news isn't hard to spot.


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Same story as last month. I'm making no additional effort to adapt. Hopefully I'll turn the corner once the sun starts coming out on a regular basis and the momentum will carry me through the summer again. I have no proof. Although I am not a religious person, I guess you could say I'm working on faith.


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Winter was brutal. Spring is officially here.

The Weather Channel: 10 Day Weather Forecast


Woo-Frickin-Hoo. Sigh.

In all seriousness, the summers are wonderful in the Seattle area. We get our fair share of sun. The winters make you appreciate them all that much more. I intend on going on a lot more hikes than last year (willingly) and I think my legs can now handle it. In theory, that should help.

I'm reminded of a time I was standing in line behind two people who had recently moved up from California. It was early fall if I recall. They were complaining because there had been a few cloudy days in a row. I secretly laughed to myself and thought, "You haven't seen anything yet!" That was roughly two decades ago. Their conversation had quite the impact on me. How did they ever survive the winter? Hahaha!

I actually don't mind the rain or I wouldn't live here. That doesn't mean I want to take long hikes or do yard work in the mud though. So what do I do instead? Sit on the couch and play video games? Yeah, pretty much. Sit at my desk and blog? Okay, got me there. Deep down there is a lazy person within me who's clearly struggling to get out. And when I say struggling, I may actually mean capitulating, lol.

Fortunately, I am a goal-oriented lazy person. It was my intention to eventually get to the blue zone (in the charts) with the least possible effort. I was originally thinking that it might take up to 5 years. I don't have enough information yet to know if the path I am currently on will get me there. Is this mostly seasonal or not? I think it is, but once again I have no proof.

In any event, I have climbed an extra 6,100 floors since I started. That's roughly 11.5 miles straight up. It certainly hasn't hurt me. My legs actually feel pretty good. I'm going to keep doing it as long as I am physically able. There is no end point where I say I'm done. This is my modest plan and I'm sticking with it.

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.009

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Although you cannot see it in the chart, I continue to climb an extra 20 flights each and every day. It's been 9 months so far. Perhaps I'm having a baby. D'oh!

I set a personal best today. I went all out and managed to climb them in 2 minutes and 56 seconds. Surprisingly, I didn't even keel over afterwards (but my legs sure burned).


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Winter continues to take its toll. I flirt with seasonal affective disorder. I had not realized just how much until doing these charts.

Check out this weather report. I can expect one day of partial sun in the next 10 days. I probably won't receive any weight loss, but I will receive total consciousness. So I've got that going for me, which is nice, lol. Sigh.

So we finish the eighteenth and he's gonna stiff me. And I say, "Hey, Lama, hey, how about a little something, you know, for the effort, you know." And he says, "Oh, uh, there won't be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness." So I got that goin' for me, which is nice. - Carl Spackler, Caddyshack (1980)

In all seriousness, I expect things to greatly improve once the sun comes out on a regular basis again. It isn't so bad. At least the summers here feel vibrant and alive by comparison.

In any event, this is all I'm doing long-term. It either works or it doesn't. At worst, it will do no harm. For what it is worth, I am down 10 pounds from when I started. One can only imagine what my weight would be now had I done nothing.

Doing nothing is easy. Just look at our political leaders. All of them talk about change. Other than the tens of thousands of lines of tax code offering loopholes to every special interest "fat cat" that can fog a mirror, what really changes?

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The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.008

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The Santa Claus rally is over. Is it time to short me? Let's see what the stock strategists would say.

April 27, 2011
Sell in May and go away? Stock strategists not so sure

Some reasons behind this theory: People tend to feed their retirement accounts and invest bonuses early in the year.

This winter was a feeding frenzy. What could possibly go wrong? As always, the government wants big fat money flowing into riskier asses. It will no doubt end well again.

Oops. Did I say asses? I meant assets! Freudian slip I assure you. ;)

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The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000

The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.007

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I've risen above the 90-day moving average. Time to buy the dip?

Trust me on this one. 212 pounds is not a good entry point for long-term buy and hold investors. There's no value here. The chart is luring you in. Don't fall for the technical analysis!

In all seriousness, I climb 20 additional flights of stairs each and every day and will continue to do so well into the distant future. The holiday season is now in the rear view mirror. The days are starting to get longer again. I think the long-term weight trend can therefore still be safely assumed to be down. It is only a matter of time.

I've never tracked my weight like this before. The seasonal effects are more than I would have guessed. December wasn't as bad as November. I'm fascinated to see what January brings.

In any event, this plan is simply a lazy person's attempt to do the absolute least needed to attain and maintain a healthy weight. From where I sit, there's a fine line between the sin of laziness and the virtue of patience. As always, I intend to ride that line! ;)

See Also:
The "Free Lunch" Weight Loss Plan v.000