39.6 Million Missing Jobs

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Let's zoom in.


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Oh oh.

Who would have guessed that so much information could be packed into just one data series?



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm

Quote of the Day (Musical Tribute)

May 2, 2012
Execs: Sears strong financially

"We’re not just sitting here thinking that things will magically get better." - Eddie Lampert



See Also:
Our Pillars of Retail Strength

Younger Worker Employment vs. Treasury Yields

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Shiranu ga hotoke.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Japanese Proverbs

Real Money Supply Growth vs. Recessions

The following chart shows inflation adjusted MZM money stock growth per capita (as a year over year percentage).


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The chart above suggests that we might want to start bracing for another recession at some point.


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In sharp contrast, this chart suggests that a recession is virtually impossible.

You want scary? What will happen to confidence if the impossible occurs?

"May you live in interesting times."

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: MZM Custom Chart
St. Louis Fed: Federal Funds Rate

The Illusion of the Corporate Cash Hoard

January 30, 2012
Analysis: Corporate cash hoard screams "buy" for investors

"In the coming decade, rather than U.S. companies being absorbers of capital we expect them to be sources of capital," said Richard Vigilante, director of selected research at hedge fund Whitebox Advisors in Minneapolis.

That's if they use the cash wisely.

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What are corporations going to do with that hoard of cash? Just look at it grow!


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Here's a crazy idea. They could use their hoard of cash to pay off their hoard of corporate bonds. Well, sort of. As seen in the chart below, they'd come up more than a bit short.


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I guess there's a reason there are so few AAA rated companies left in the S&P 500, cash hoards notwithstanding.

You want really scary though? What if the companies with the most debt are the ones with the least cash? Didn't we already do this once? It was called a subprime housing bubble. Everything seemed fine on average. Unfortunately, the averages hid a nasty surprise.

Fortunately, I've been assured by the powers that be that nasty surprises are a thing of the past [decade].

Illusion is the first of all pleasures. - Oscar Wilde

Note: The financial data comes from "B.102 Balance Sheet of Nonfinancial Corporate Business" as seen in the Federal Reserve Board's Flow of Funds reports.

Source Data:
FRB: Flow of Funds
St. Louis Fed: Population
St. Louis Fed: CPI

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day

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May 1, 2012
Bank Of America Keeps Getting Leaner, 2000 More Jobs Cut

Brian Moynihan wasn’t kidding last year when he promised to transform Bank of America into a “leaner” company.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Sarcasm Report v.158

May 1, 2012
'Octomom' Nadya Suleman eyes an 'empire' -- but first, bankruptcy

This article makes me wonder if there is some validity to the notion that a single mom with 14 kids and no steady income might have difficulty paying the bills.

“Octomom” Nadya Suleman filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy on Monday in Orange County, suggesting there’s some validity to the notion that for a single mom with 14 kids and no steady job, it can be difficult to pay the bills.

Oh oh. There's a snark glut forming. I'm either going to have to up my game or cut the price of my free service just to compete.

She rose to fame in January 2009 as “Octomom” when she gave birth to octuplets, who joined the six kids she already had. All of the children were conceived via in vitro fertilization.

We need to encourage more of this. That's 14 more homes that must be sold someday! Everyone needs a place to live and they just aren't making any more land!

As an added bonus, that's 14 more people who will also someday help pay for my Social Security!

What's the worst that could happen?

Savings Bond Rates Announced

I-Bond Rates & Terms

0.0% Fixed Rate

2.20% Composite Rate

I predicted 0.0% and 2.21%. In my defense, who would have guessed that 2.206% rounded down?

EE Savings Bond Rates & Terms

0.6% Fixed Rate

20 Year Original Maturity

I predicted 0.5% and expected the government to switch to a 25 year original maturity. By keeping the original maturity at 20 years, one can still earn 3.53% over the 20 year period (since the bond is guaranteed to double in price). That's 0.77% more than a comparable 20-year nominal treasury. Praise be to the government savings bond interest rate setting Gods!

As seen in the charts within the links offered below, my interest rate predictions were based on the premise that we were still in crisis mode. These new interest rates therefore mean:

1. We *are* still in crisis mode!
2. The savers continue to be bandersnatched!

O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!

See Also:
I-Bond Rate Prediction for May 1st, 2012
I-Bond Prediction Update for May 1, 2012
EE Savings Bond Rate Prediction for May 1, 2012