1929 Style Quote of the Day: "This 2 percent to 3 percent growth range number just feels like it's kind of perpetual."

December 3, 2014
2% to 3% growth feels perpetual: Wal-Mart CEO

"This 2 percent to 3 percent growth range number just feels like it's kind of perpetual," he said on " Squawk Box " from the Business Roundtable meeting in Washington, D.C. "We're kind of like we were last year year. And as I look ahead to next year, it feels like more of the same."

You know, it just feels, you know, kind of perpetual, and stuff.

I didn't watch the video. Perhaps someone could tell me if he was asked what would happen when the unemployment rate drops to 0%, because maybe, just maybe, this relatively weak growth during an expansion would feel kind of less perpetual at that point.

Peak Human Compensation (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 1-year moving average of real compensation per hour in the nonfarm business sector.


Click to enlarge.

Should the trend hold, we're roughly 10% off the ultimate peak.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Compensation Per Hour

Mount Gaseous Plentifulness

The following chart shows the 1000-trading-day average of the natural gas spot price.


Click to enlarge.

Ever get the feeling that our monetary leaders are running a grand experiment and have no idea how it will all turn out? Yeah, me too.

Perhaps Switzerland knows.

August 14, 2014
Swiss Deflate the Deflation Theory

For more than four years, consumer prices in Switzerland have risen at an annual pace well below 1 percent. In 2012 and 2013, the country even experienced deflation. Yet its economy has grown at a steady pace, and is expected to expand by 2 percent this year. The unemployment rate is a low 3.2 percent.

We should be so lucky. Perhaps they should too. Over the long-term, their real GDP growth is slowing relentlessly (as is quite evident when using the log scale).

Wow! I managed to make it through this deflationary post without mentioning Japan. Well, almost.

Source Data:
EIA: Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices (NYMEX)

Parabolic Gasoline Trend Failures (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 104-week (~2 years) moving average of the US regular conventional gas price.


Click to enlarge.



Mirror, mirror
Just spottin' trends in tanks of gas
Two failed parabolas
Of the hyperinflation task

Mirror, mirror
US bonds lyin' in my hands
I'm the fool, mother f***er
No risk asset lover
That's for all the others

Take a look into my chart
Tell me what you see
Take a look into my chart
Tell me is it true?
Take a look into my chart
Oh, do I have a clue?
Take a look into my chart
Does risk look risk free?
When should I believe?

Mirror, mirror
Deflation is what I see
The inflation
"Experts" lookin' so sly and so sleazy

Mirror, mirror
CNBC with that crack, "A strong buy!"
They make them stumble, make them blind
Time after time and lie by lie

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: US Regular Conventional Gas Price

Quote of the Day: “The reason rates should be higher have been in place for a long time..."

December 2, 2014
Treasuries Drop for Second Day Amid Record Corporate Debt Sales

“The reason rates should be higher have been in place for a long time, and the Treasury market hasn’t seen a significant back-up,” Lyngen said. “And every time we do have a significant back-up, overseas investors come in and buy the market.”

What reason has been in place for a long time? Seriously. I'd love to know.

It sure as heck isn't the deposit glut.

November 27, 2014
Banks Continue to Disbelieve the Rising Interest Rate Story

Commercial banks now have more than $32,000 in deposits for every man, woman, and child in this country. Why would they need to raise interest rates when so much money is being deposited at low interest rates? Does anyone really believe banks are running a charity service?

Light Weight Vehicle Sales Prediction for 2040

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of light weight vehicle sales (millions of units).


Click to enlarge.

31 million units!

This is five years of solid "sure thing" parabolic growth science.

Now that the Fed has permanently put an end to all future recessions, there's just no denying it.



Don't let the clown horn fool you. Prosperity, baby. That's what I'm talking about.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos & Light Trucks

Parabolic Trend Failure of the Day: Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies

The following chart shows the 104-week (~2 years) moving average of the commercial paper of nonfinancial companies.


Click to enlarge.

The "sure thing" trend in blue failed. That's water under the bridge.

The "sure thing" trend in red shall never fail! Mwuhahaha!

What does this mean? Although we're repeatedly told that companies are flush with cash, some companies apparently feel the need to continually borrow more of it. Go figure.

FRB: Commercial Paper

Commercial paper (CP) consists of short-term, promissory notes issued primarily by corporations. Maturities range up to 270 days but average about 30 days. Many companies use CP to raise cash needed for current transactions, and many find it to be a lower-cost alternative to bank loans.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Commercial Paper of Nonfinancial Companies

Some Perspective on Today's "Strong" Construction Spending Report

The following chart shows the annual change in real total construction spending per capita.


Click to enlarge.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart