England, New England, and the Old Country

No end in sight for rising feed prices

“Canadians and Americans typically spend 7-10 per cent of their disposable income on food; in Europe, it’s about 22 per cent; in a third world country like Thailand, it’s 50 per cent.”

Area churches squeezed by high heating costs

As heating oil costs soar, area churches are paying a steeper price to keep large, historic houses of worship warm, even draining their bingo revenue.

St. Anthony of Padua Church on Acushnet Avenue in New Bedford normally spends about $80,000 on heating oil in the winter season. So far, the parish has spent more than $100,000, said the Rev. Roger J. Landry, the pastor.

Rising gas, food costs changing lifestyles

Now, their weekly "splurge" — dinner at Old Country Buffet — is on the chopping block. And Holley finds the price of gasoline so high that rather than drive a mile for groceries, she waits until her daughter goes shopping and rides with her. If a disabled friend who lives with them didn't help out, "we'd be out the door," she said.

Eating Out vs. Eating at Home v.3

This chart shows the retail sales at food service and drinking places as a percentage of sales made at food service and drinking places AND food and beverage stores. I think it is safe to say that upward trend is being seriously tested, again.

Is it a good time to open up a new restaurant? There sure are a lot of restaurant/chef shows on TV these days. However...

We live on a placid island of ignorance in the midst of black seas of infinity, and it was not meant that we should voyage far. - H.P. Lovecraft

Let's just hope people don't turn as bearish as I am and/or begin to question their ongoing prosperity. I'm down to around 10% on that chart. There's not one thing Bernanke can do to get me to change my behavior either. Sorry Ben! The more he tries, the more homecooked spaghetti I'll be eating. If you think pushing on a string is bad, try pushing on a wet noodle!

See Also:
Eating Out vs. Eating at Home v.2

Source Data:
Food Service and Drinking Places Sales
Food and Beverage Store Sales

Core Retail Sales

The above chart shows retail sales per capita adjusted for inflation. It excludes food and beverage stores, food service and drinking places, and gasoline station sales in order to strip out the ever popular "food and energy" that is all the rage these days. The trend line is a 4th order polynomial.

I need a quote to do the "core" justice. Perhaps a quote from a horror movie would work here, based on what I'm seeing in the chart.

All right, sweethearts, what are you waiting for? Breakfast in bed? Another glorious day in the corps! A day in the Marine Corps is like a day on the farm. Every meal's a banquet! Every paycheck a fortune! Every formation a parade! I love the corps! - Apone, Aliens (1986)

See Also:
Slowing Growth + Rising Inflation = Stagflation
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Consumer Price Index For All Urban Consumers: All Items
St. Louis Fed: Population: Mid-Month
U.S. Census Bureau: Monthly Retail Sales

Savvy Chinese Find Market Top!

November 6, 2007
Savvy Chinese Know Exactly When Bubble Will Burst!
All in until the Olympics! Then take profits! It is a cunning plan!

Note November, 2007 on the following chart.

Shanghai Composite Index (1 Year Chart)

Here's another look.

Shanghai Composite Index (5 Year Chart)

I'm especially amused by the comment AllanF left for me on this post in January. This is very much a gallows humor kind of day it seems (as I stroll down memory lane).

Sh*t!!! It's still January. Oh man. What am I gonna do!?! Oh man! Oh man! Oh man!!! My wife's gonna kill me. I told her it was all cool, we'd beat the rush and be all out by Memorial Day. - AllanF

The "rush" clearly intensified.

The Sarcasm Report v.17

Three sarcasm reports in one day? Somebody stop me!

Here's something that was written in gallows humor back in January of 2001. It does not seem so much like humor these days though, but instead a credible warning. Perhaps that means this isn't really sarcasm at all come to think of it.

Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over'

WASHINGTON, DC-Mere days from his inauguration, president-elect Bush vowed to undo the damage not done by the Clinton Administration.

I spotted this link over at the visible hand.

The Sarcasm Report v.16

Two sarcasm reports in the same day? What can it mean!

Goldman's Cohen Replaced as Chief S&P 500 Forecaster (Update5)
``I'm sure there are people out there who will feel a great sense of loss'' from Cohen no longer giving S&P 500 forecasts, said John Wilson, co-director of equity strategy at Morgan Keegan, which manages $120 billion in Memphis, Tennessee. ``More power to her. I'm sure she's looking forward to working on longer-term ideas.''

I'm sure there are people out there who had great losses.

Cohen, who was the top-ranked strategist in Institutional Investor magazine's surveys in 1998 and 1999, stayed bullish on computer-related stocks for too long as the S&P 500 suffered a bear market from March 2000 to October 2002. She said in October 2000 that technology shares would be a good investment in 2001. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index lost 26 percent that year.

Cue the clowns and dancing bears!

See Also:
Abby Joseph Cohen vs. Abby Joseph Cohen

It is a good day to be a bear, again.

Sick Economy? (Musical Tribute)

I'm So Sick - Flyleaf


I will break into your thoughts
With what's written on my heart
I will break
Break

I'm so sick
Infected with where I live
Let me live without this
Empty bliss
Selfishness
I'm so sick
I'm so sick

If you want more of this
We can push out, sell out, die out
So you'll shut up
And stay sleeping
With my screaming in your itching ears

The Sarcasm Report v.15

Yen May Extend Gain as Commodities Drop Fuels Carry-Trade Exit
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- The yen and Swiss franc may extend gains against major currencies as declines in gold and oil feed speculation investors are exiting purchases of commodities that were financed with cheap loans from Japan and Switzerland.

Investors, worried what excessive cheap loans (housing bubble) would do to our financial system, embraced cheap loans in an effort to protect themselves. Is that what I'm seeing? Further, in this era of excess stuff, buying more stuff was also embraced. That's probably me just being a bit extra (short-term) deflationary/paranoid these days though. Nevermind.

``There's massive deleveraging going on, forcing some of the fund community to cover the losses by unwinding trades in other markets,'' said Michael Malpede, a senior currency analyst in Chicago at Man Global Research. ``They are unwinding some of the one-way trades,'' including bets on euro-dollar. ``It triggered a domino effect.''

Toilet paper is/was a one-way trade for me. Then again, I'm fairly sure I didn't finance the purchase using a Japanese loan nor did I ever expect to resell the paper for fiat paper. If memory serves, that is.

The Fed on March 18 said ``inflation has been elevated, and some indicators of inflation expectations have risen.''

The comment helped ``to change things around in respect to commodity markets,'' said Hans-Guenter Redeker, global head of currency strategy in London at BNP Paribas SA, in an interview on Bloomberg radio. ``So we did see a lot of trends that had been in place over the past six to seven weeks being destroyed'' yesterday.

I would rank parabolic trends at the top of the list when it comes to trends most easily destroyed. Will the trends arise from the ashes (yet again for a variety of long-term reasons) like a Phoenix though? Maybe! Let's just say I'm still not willing to bury US Dollars in my backyard in hopes I'll be digging them back up in 20+ years thinking how well I did to hoard them. I may be crazy short-term, but I don't think I'm actually insane long-term. Time will tell though!

The Fed has cut rates 2 percentage points this year to restore confidence to financial markets and avert a recession. Banks are reeling from $195 billion in assets writedowns and credit losses since the start of 2007, according to Bloomberg data.

Nothing restores confidence like a good old-fashioned intermeeting rate cut panic!