I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
SM, a tad off topic but have you ever seen or made graphs of the initial vs revised employment and unemployment numbers? The initial figures have been getting to be more and more of a joke, but the revised numbers; and particularly the survey numbers; might tell an interesting story. Just wonderin'
Mark,I think deflation short term is spot on, in order to have inflation it will require people and businesses willing to take on even more debt and banks willing to lend. I just don't see that coming down the pipe for the next couple of years at least. Government is also somewhat limited on tax relief and even more fiscal stimulus although I'm sure they will do their very best to do just that. I see a bailout coming at some point no way around it I'm afraid.Labor force falling, retail sales falling, credit tightening, home prices falling, nothing in that spells inflation to me. Cash is king when you ain't got any and the bank won't lend any:-)Kevin
EEngineer,I haven't, although I did do a few charts showing the rise in the Not in Labor Force numbers. That certainly smells fishy (~2 million added since January).http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/09/not-in-labor-force-part-2.htmlI just hope that birth/death model isn't going to be the death of US(A) this go around.Kevin,I just don't see that coming down the pipe for the next couple of years at least.If nothing else, Bernanke can't fix a problem he doesn't seem to see. He keeps dismissing the idea that a recession might be coming. If he's wrong, he'll lose even more credibility (he lost some serious credibility during the "subprime markets seems likely to be contained" era, in my opinion). Of course, should that come to pass he'll be losing credibility while many lose credit ability!
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SM, a tad off topic but have you ever seen or made graphs of the initial vs revised employment and unemployment numbers? The initial figures have been getting to be more and more of a joke, but the revised numbers; and particularly the survey numbers; might tell an interesting story. Just wonderin'
Mark,
I think deflation short term is spot on, in order to have inflation it will require people and businesses willing to take on even more debt and banks willing to lend. I just don't see that coming down the pipe for the next couple of years at least. Government is also somewhat limited on tax relief and even more fiscal stimulus although I'm sure they will do their very best to do just that. I see a bailout coming at some point no way around it I'm afraid.
Labor force falling, retail sales falling, credit tightening, home prices falling, nothing in that spells inflation to me. Cash is king when you ain't got any and the bank won't lend any:-)
Kevin
EEngineer,
I haven't, although I did do a few charts showing the rise in the Not in Labor Force numbers. That certainly smells fishy (~2 million added since January).
http://illusionofprosperity.blogspot.com/2007/09/not-in-labor-force-part-2.html
I just hope that birth/death model isn't going to be the death of US(A) this go around.
Kevin,
I just don't see that coming down the pipe for the next couple of years at least.
If nothing else, Bernanke can't fix a problem he doesn't seem to see. He keeps dismissing the idea that a recession might be coming. If he's wrong, he'll lose even more credibility (he lost some serious credibility during the "subprime markets seems likely to be contained" era, in my opinion). Of course, should that come to pass he'll be losing credibility while many lose credit ability!
Deleted as SPAM. It isn't just for breakfast anymore! ;)
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