Posts
August 31, 2007
The Sarcasm Report
Since gold is a particular precious metal but stocks are actually a collection, wouldn't it make more sense to say the following? Gold (a particular precious metal) is simply following Jones Soda (a particular stock) higher because of the Bush bailout.
Nevermind. I know the answer to that already. Jones Soda actually went down today. That doesn't work.
...
By the way, I did say I was a stagflationist. Right? I get all giddy inside when so many things get propped up by our sound fiscal policies. I just know everything's going to be just fine if everything is propped up simultaneously. Heck, how can we lose?
Anyone want to guess what Jones Soda did today?
March 11, 2008
Jones Soda Fizzles
Shares dropped $1.66, or 38.3%, to $2.68 in afternoon trading. Shares have dropped 84.4% over the past 12 months.
I'm still a stagflationist but I'm also having a strange feeling of deja vu. Go figure.
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Year-over-year in October
-
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Serious delinquencies hit
17-month high while foreclosure activity remains historically muted
• At 3.45% ...
3 hours ago
4 comments:
Stag,
I propose we institute a new Zero bound valuation system for investments. It would be similar to the Kelvin temperature scale in that no investment returns would ever be negative even though the actual investments themselves could decline.
The proposed Zero bound system is uniquely suited to accrue and distribute (socialize) current and future mortgage losses in accordance with the immutable transient properties of the Zeroth law of thermodynamics.
After yesterday's Fed actions, the above sarcasm is not too far from the truth.
Is this a faith based luck system?
MAB,
Let's call it "Homeward Bound" with zero being the home! I do love puns!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6K8wfyzAJQ
And ev'ry stop is neatly planned...
My TIP fund lost ~1% yesterday as the Dow rose ~400 points. This makes sense. Investors piled into stocks. TIPS no longer looked attractive.
My TIP fund gained ~1% today as the Dow fell ~50 points. This makes sense. Investors stopped piling into stocks. TIPS looked attractive again.
I'm having a problem with the math though. Up 400 points loses me 1% but down 50 points gains it all back? Perhaps most investors do not yet realize the "gravity" of the situation. ;)
Stag,
I'm having a problem with the math though.
Same here. I've been having problems with the math for years.
A lot of people assume the top end of the housing market will hold up. I just don't see it. I actually know people with $20,000 per month mortgages. If wall street goes to pot for a few years, all these 3 million dollar homes around NYC are going to get crushed. It's not just yearly income that matters, it's also the sustainability of the yearly income.
I've seen the big brick mansions in the failed "good" neighborhoods of Trenton, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit, Bethlehem, Easton, etc. You can buy these places for peanuts today.
Here's a bear trap to avoid: buying real estate at historically high prices during a period of historically low interest rates. I think we should call it MIRACLE INVESTING.
Every era has its looms. Any guesses?
MAB,
Here's a bear trap to avoid: buying real estate at historically high prices during a period of historically low interest rates. I think we should call it MIRACLE INVESTING.
That's pretty much the same argument I was using on Capital One Financial's Yahoo message board a few years ago. The resident bull was pointing to the historically low unemployment rate as a reason to be bullish. My take on it was that it could therefore only get worse. The "miracle" did not occur. It got worse.
Post a Comment