Tuesday, April 7, 2009

We Must Be Turning Japanese!

Oh oh. Ben Stein finally likes gold. My itchy stagflationary trigger finger just went limp. This is extremely embarrassing. It's like Groundhog Day. Just when you think he's going to see his shadow and deflationary winter will end soon, the sunny optimism pops out from behind the clouds and you're virtually guaranteed six more years of deflation.

April 6, 2009

Stocks and Housing: Are They Putting in a Bottom?

We might also want to diverge from our standard portfolio to put about 10 per cent into gold, the funds taken equally from stocks and bonds. I normally dislike the yellow metal as an investment because of its extreme volatility and long-term poor price performance. But if we have inflation as the result of the immensely aggressive actions of the Fed, gold may be a haven. But bear in mind that, adjusted for inflation, gold is still barely half of what it was in 1979.

Forgive me for saying this, but that "long-term poor price performance" concept can be reduced to some degree if you buy things when they are cheaper. Since you offer "expert" financial advice, I'll assume you were buying gold when it was $300 in 2000.

I love following the stock market. In the very long run it's a beautiful thing, at least in the postwar world, and I hope it doesn't turn around and bite my head off the way it did in the tech crash. - Ben Stein, September 4, 2007

To compensate for gold being half of what it was in 1979, adjusted for inflation, here's something that's probably at least twice as big as similar tools from the year 1776, adjusted for "Oh my God! That thing is so frickin' huge!"

Topic: Large mining equipment


Now I know these type of vehicles (ie, massive tracked excavation vehicles) exist as semi-mobile mining equipment, but I'm not at all convinced that this is real - it looks way to big, and I don't think these are supposed to cross roads.

It's real. No joke.

Bagger 288 - Gigantic Excavator

The Bagger 288 (Excavator 288) is a bucket-wheel excavator, the largest in the world.

It sure beats the heck out of a pickaxe , although I suppose a billion pickaxes in the hands of a billion Chinese would be an even more impressive sight to see (perhaps even from space).

Oh how I dislike heckling stagflation when I have it in my name, but fair is fair. I'm having more and more deflationary moments lately. Let's just say the trips to Costco have been less frequent. It's mostly because I've simply run out of ideas.

If the savers are done spending (because they are done stockpiling) and the spenders are done spending (because they are tapped out), then who is left to buy goods at the malls? This assumes the government spends its money on nicer roads to the malls in the name of improved infrastructure of course, and doesn't actually buy stuff within the malls.

6 comments:

AllanF said...

Oh man, I SOOOO didn't need to know Ben Stein was buying gold. <sigh> Fortunately the Sept calls I bought last Friday were a small position.

OK, looking on the bright side, this lets me rest a little easier over my vastly larger fixed income position.

Stagflationary Mark said...

AllanF,

Oh man, I SOOOO didn't need to know Ben Stein was buying gold.

There is some hope for you.

1. He said we "might" want to consider it.

2. It could be that he iwants to buy YOUR gold, but only when the price goes high enough to make it obvious that he should be buying it.

3. He hasn't said that he loves following the gold market yet.

mab said...

Stag,

I can't think of anything more deflationary than excessive/unpayable debt.

Be it inflation, deflation or stagflation, this nightmare will not end well.

Personally, I don't see inflation as real estate is over-built and over-valued. Worse still, incomes & employment are being crushed by billions of Asians that are willing to work for ~ 2.5% of American wages.

But who knows for sure, the fed & government are profoundly capable of really idiotic behavior. No bunker is fully resistant to the stupidity.

At a minimum, the system is royally broken and in need of a major overhaul. It could even be totalled!

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

I can't think of anything more deflationary than excessive/unpayable debt.

We do seem to be destroying credit far faster than credit and/or money is being created.

BofA to Raise Interest Rates
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123922365800702453.html

That will no doubt help the situation. Not! Let the turnip squeezing continue.

dearieme said...

How are you for cat food?

Stagflationary Mark said...

dearieme,

How are you for cat food?

It would depend on how many cats you need to feed I guess.

I'm trying to be modest here, but I'd no doubt make better than average cat food if the global economy completely fell apart. I'm 6'3" tall.

On the other hand, there's something to be said for the quality of the food source too, and my "good taste" is now extremely questionable, lol. ;)