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Mexico buys $1bn insurance policy against falling oil prices
"We want this as an insurance policy," said Agustín Carstens, Mexico's finance minister. "If we don't collect any resources from this transaction, it's OK with us." That would mean the oil price had remained above $57 a barrel, he added.
I own TIPS and I-Bonds as an insurance policy against higher inflation. If deflation appears and I don't collect any resources from the transaction, it's OK with me.
I also have fire insurance on my house. If my house doesn't burn and I don't collect any resources from the transaction, it's OK with me too.
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, PPI, Fed Chair Powell
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[image: Mortgage Rates] Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com
and are for top tier scenarios.
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The *initial weekly ...
6 hours ago
15 comments:
China Had ‘Good Reason’ to Depreciate Yuan, Zhu Says
http://tinyurl.com/ylbljts
What's that sucking sound?
LOL
Kevin
Kevin,
The decline in exports has put “tremendous pressure” on jobs and production in the world’s third-biggest economy, Zhu said. In that sense, there had been “good reason for China to depreciate the renminbi,” Zhu said.
It also takes "tremendous pressure" to create diamonds of unparalleled beauty and elegance of course. We mustn't forget that if investors someday clog the exits in blind panic. ;)
China's graduate glut grows
October 22, 2009
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/KJ22Cb03.html
Feng is at least employed. With a monthly salary of 1,400 yuan (US$205) and accommodation shared with her parents, she can continue to look for something better while earning a modest living. But many of her university friends are still without jobs, scouring job fairs and talent recruitment centers.
Back of envelope math... $205 per month, $2,500 per year, $25,000 per decade. You know, maybe that's enough math. General Motors, are you seeing this future demand?
Sciences (CASS) in September said earnings of graduates were now at par and even lower than those of migrant laborers. The news came as a blow to many high-aspiring parents and youngsters in a country that has for centuries prided itself on cultivating elite Confucian intelligentsia.
Gassed up
http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/cer/2009_12/Gassed_up.html
Car sales in China are booming, but gasoline consumption seems to be stuck in the slow lane. Skeptics point to this odd turn of events as evidence...
I would argue that it is evidence of "tremendous pressure". Maybe that's just me though.
Mish and I sure are on the same page today. I said...
"I could be wrong, but packaging up subprime crap and calling it something stable was tried once before.
Or have people already forgotten about structured investment vehicles?
At least the dollar's crap was at least partially priced in. Everyone already knows our currency is sitting over the septic tank."
Mish just said...
"I doubt the EU dissolves, but it clearly is not the safe haven have many think it is. Loans made to the Baltic states are in trouble, Greece itself is in serious trouble, and Spain is in serious trouble as is Ireland.
...
Meanwhile, the problems in the U.S. are very well understood by nearly everyone, and the dollar is despised by traders."
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/eu-ready-to-bailout-greece-debt.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
Yeah, what he said!
"I also have fire insurance on my house."
With all that Halo cash I can't believe your not self-insured.
McDonald's sales take hit from US joblessness
CHICAGO (AP) -- The supersized recession that was a boon for business last year caught up further with McDonald's Corp. in November, as high unemployment ate into sales.
http://tinyurl.com/yjw66r7
"It's all good!"
watchtower,
At precisely 1pm today the inflation trade got McSpanked!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TIP&t=1d
Stag,
At precisely 1pm today the inflation trade got McSpanked!
Didn't you get the memo? We all agreed it would start "spontaneously" at precisely 1pm.
mab,
I got the memo but a series of events "conspired" against me.
1. I was not sent the secret decoder ring! I did know the secret handshake but the memo didn't seem to care.
2. When the memo arrived it was the size of a TV lottery check, but it deflated as I put my glasses on.
3. And lastly, and most importantly, something altered my glasses. They are rose-colored now. Maybe I need to watch less CNBC?
Here's a fun read from October, especially as it relates to oil and my $80 ceiling theory.
Boom and Gloom
http://www.newsweek.com/id/220402
"These facts are hardly secret: they are well known to anyone who reads the mainstream financial press. Yet the craziness is back, following the familiar pattern of echo bubbles, which are now well documented both in the historical record and in economic lab experiments. In one recent study done by Smith, participants were asked to trade an imaginary security, of which the underlying real value was understood. The experimental traders started out underbidding the security but slowly bid it up into a bubble, which then burst. They were subsequently asked to trade the same security again, knowing full well what happened last time around. Nothing changed--except the velocity at which the bubble was created; it happened much faster in the second round. Only in the third round did some participants finally learn their lesson. "We think we can beat the crowd," says Smith with a laugh. "But we are the crowd." It's true not only for the little guy, but also for the world's most sophisticated investors. El-Erian attended a gathering of such people recently, and while the general sentiment about the state of the global economy was bearish, the market positions were decidedly bullish (PIMCO has been reducing risk in its own portfolio)."
Mark,
what if your neighbor, call him Goldy Sachman, took out default swaps on your fire insured house then lit it on fire and destroyed the fire hydrants. Unless you are TBTF, which you may well be after the whole Halo experience, you are screwed!
What kind of disaster insurance would you need for this light over Norway:
http://tinyurl.com/y8ctp7g
If not a photoshop deal, then I would appreciate any ideas what the heck it was!!?
GYSC,
If not a photoshop deal, then I would appreciate any ideas what the heck it was!!?
It's always nice to be able to draw on my physics background. There's only one thing I can think of that would create such an effect.
Follow the blue light down to hills in the first picture. See how it sort of comes to a point? I don't think that's just a coincidence. I believe something happened right there. That's the first part of the puzzle.
Also note that the pattern in the sky is a spiral. Something clearly needed to spin to cause that. That's the second piece of the puzzle.
If my theory is correct, then there's a decent chance we'll be able to see the following in the picture once it is digitally enhanced.
http://tinyurl.com/yaxas98
"I own TIPS and I..."
...don't know if I'm real happy about it. This chart does not have me sleeping as sound as I usually do:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIP&p=D&st=2009-08-20&id=p07618115048
As you can see I was tested only days after I bought this but patience paid off. Now I'm more ready by the moment to end this trade.
"Or have people already forgotten about structured investment vehicles?"
Here's someone who still has two unpleasant years to forget about that very thing, click here:
and just fill in Andrew Fastow and enjoy
G.H.,
"The Administrative Maximum (ADX) facility in Florence, Colorado, houses offenders requiring the tightest controls."
The guards are no doubt told to keep their wallets at home, lol.
I continue to think that TIP has a lot more downside potential than upside potential (even more now than when I sold).
Oil has fallen roughly 10% since I sold on November 16th but TIP has only fallen less than 1% (counting the recent distribution).
Just something to think about.
"The guards are no doubt told to keep their wallets at the place where they rent, lol."
Fixt...to represent circa 2009.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/12/rentership-society.html
G.H.,
That does seem to be the trend. Sigh.
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