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In conclusion, I expect (and could be wrong) that toilet paper will keep up with inflation long-term and possibly even do a bit better.
Let's see where we are now.
It looks to me like we're a few deflation speeches shy of a full load. As of November of 2009, I lean deflationary.
In any event, toilet paper for the win! It was a fun ride while it lasted! Woohoo! Sigh.
See Also:
Toilet Paper Economics
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
BLS: Inflation & Prices
St. Louis Fed: CPI-U
15 comments:
As a side note, in my original chart I adjusted the household paper products (not seasonally adjusted) by the CPI (seasonally adjusted).
In this latest chart I have used the CPI that is not seasonally adjusted. I think it could be argued either way since household paper products probably don't have much seasonal variation to them. In any event, it is a minor difference.
I would think winter usage, especially around the holidays, would get a "mound" of more paper use. Maybe you should "smooth" the data for that fact?
GYSC,
If there are seasonal factors at play here, they are still quite small in comparison to the larger swings seen in the chart.
Stag,
Wow, I did not know that Bernanke had quantitatively (dis)eased the price of toilet paper. It went vertical.
You are definitely on a two ply roll! This proves there is no need for risky ass..eh hem..sets even when the eCONomy is circling the drain.
Well played!
Mark - one would expect toilet paper to be quite "sticky" in pricing, even in the face of generally falling prices for most goods.
It is classed as an essential.
One interesting note - over the last year, couponage for the major name brands has increased.
mab & MOM,
I have no way to lock in my gains but I do take comfort that I will also never need to pay capital gains tax on my profits. These inflationary gains will find their way into my septic tank eventually.
I would back the "sticky" idea. I have never seen toilet paper prices decline at Costco. There have been periods where they didn't go up for long periods though. I think we may have just entered such a period.
As a side note, after months of patience I was finally able to reenter a regular grocery store again. I bought 12 Tony's pizzas for $12, 4 jars of 24 ounce Prego for $6, and 4 cans of 26 ounce Hunt's Spaghetti sauce for $4. It almost feels like 2004 again.
I bought 12 Tony's pizzas for $12, 4 jars of 24 ounce Prego for $6, and 4 cans of 26 ounce Hunt's Spaghetti sauce for $4. It almost feels like 2004 again.
Geez, Mark, that stuff's gonna to kill you. Though I see your dilemma. Spend like you'll live to 90 and you'll die by 60. Spend like you'll die at 60 and you'll live to 90.
We've been stocking up with "loo rolls" in the belief that the Chilean earthquake shook up some pulp mills.
AllanF,
That is not representative of my daily diet. The pizzas have no trans fats. It will take 6 months to eat them.
Boneless skinless chicken breasts and rice are my favorites. Fresh bananas are a must. I could eat more vegies though.
"Spend like you'll live to 90 and you'll die by 60. Spend like you'll die at 60 and you'll live to 90."
I'm shootin' for 80, lol.
dearieme,
I'm watching HBO's Pacific miniseries (WW2).
The items of highest importance... ammunition, water, food, cigarettes, and toilet paper.
and Yamashita's gold.
GYSC,
I saw no mention of that so far but I will say that one marine went after Japanese gold teeth. So you've got that going for you.
Ouchie!
If they go to Luzon in the Phillipines it may come up.
I'm of the Taubes persuasion myself. Sat fat is good for you, seed oils -- not so much.
AllanF,
For what it is worth, I eat butter and have been eating butter since I was old enough to buy my own food.
I'm reminded of Conan O'Brien joking when the studies came out showing how bad partially hyrdrogenated oils were.
He said something along the lines of "I Can't Believe It's Not Butter" was forced to change their name to "I Can't Believe This Crap I've Been Eating Isn't Butter", lol.
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