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This is yet another exponential trend failure.
September 23, 2011
Analysis: Fed's twist moves hurts company pension plans
Further damage from lower rates is likely despite the fact that some closely watched rates, like the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, are already at historically low levels.
See Also
Pension Fund Hell
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Pension Fund Reserves
St. Louis Fed: Civilian Employment
St. Louis Fed: CPI
23 comments:
Mark,
Per the earlier discussion of Coke as a company, an FT piece in which strategic investment is in China, a "one-stop shop" that is "well-managed", says its CEO.
Also criticized, the "antiquated" US policy that taxes repatriated overseas profits.
So, how long until Coke moves its' headquarters out of the US?
Still thirsting for a coke?
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/071f902c-e636-11e0-960c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Z9N7htS1
fried,
From your link...
“There’s too much comfort. We need more needles to stick in politicians.”
May we live in interesting (dangerous) times.
You should do a round up post of all the exponential failures since 2000. Your own EFSF (Exponential Failure of a Stable Future).
It's true. A lot of these moves are plainly deflationary past a few months.
Mr Slippery,
All the exponential trend failures have been inconceivable! Due to the collection's unusual size I'm not sure I could fit them all in one post.
ETFOUS!
(Exponential Trend Failures Of Unusual Size)
Hmmm. That's interesting.
ETF = Exchange-Traded Fund
ETF = Exponential Trend Failure
The market sure has a sense of humor.
MaxedOutMama,
Improvisational Monetary Policy
Once you've shaken a stick at something, you can rarely get it back to the way it was before.
"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."
– Kenneth E. Boulding
JzB
WV: begooft. I believe this is old West Saxon for WASF
You need a "place" to see all your "broken exponential trends" graphs in one place.
Jazzbumpa,
I would suggest that a better quote might be madman "AND/OR" an economist, lol.
NOTaREALmerican,
I'll add an "exponential trend failure" tag to my posts at some point. That will at least make it easier to find them all.
The tag has been added. I think I got most of them by searching for "exponential" and tacking on a few "port" searches.
Speaking of exponential trend failures, I saw this post from Angry Karl today and it occurred to me Snarky Mark has a chance to get out in front of events with a healthcare spending curve.
I was at a cancer clinic Tuesday evening (no cancer, just using one of their conference rooms for a community org mtg). From the looks of things around the facility, it certainly didn't seem like Medicare & Medicaid spending had fallen off any exponential trend curves.
It's September 29th. Are we going to make it through the month without any actual failures in the news? What I mean is, the month has been full of dire predictions in the national media: Greece defaulting, US gov't shutdown, bank failures. Are we saving all the punch lines for later in the year, or next year?
Just a rhetorical question.
It's been a quiet day.
AllanF,
I was at a cancer clinic Tuesday evening (no cancer, just using one of their conference rooms for a community org mtg). From the looks of things around the facility, it certainly didn't seem like Medicare & Medicaid spending had fallen off any exponential trend curves.
On Monday I was dealing with a broken crown. It will cost me over $2000 when all is said and done. (Sutures were involved.)
The lobby has a huge fish tank and 3 TVs!
That said, what are my choices? My last dentist wasn't all that good. The new one seems to really know what he's doing.
I will spend more fixing this one tooth than I spend on food in a typical year. No joke.
Audrey,
I'll answer your rhetorical question with a theatrical observation!
40 more points until the next Rubicon crossing!
Can't you just feel the excitement in the air? It's going to be a celebration!
Go S&P!
We need a Rubicon for this rally before it fizzles.
Whew!
Audrey,
No pain, no gain
Industry need not wish, as Poor Richard says, and he that lives upon hope will die fasting. There are no gains, without pains... — as reprinted in his The Way to Wealth (1758)
This is great news for those of us who have lost all hope, lol. Sigh.
Much pain!
No gains!
Feel the burn!
Rubicon, Shubicon. Tell me when we get to the Berezina.
I will spend more fixing this one tooth than I spend on food in a typical year. No joke.
Wait, are you saying that you spend less than 200 a month on food, excluding dog food? Do you live on a farm? How do you manage that?
AllanF,
Today's stock market was a Berezina kind of day!
fried,
The last year was not typical because I ate out a LOT relative to what I usually do. I spent $370 at restaurants in the one week my girlfriend's family was in town. (I figured that since they were flying all the way across the country I better show them a good time. ;))
I spent $1973 on food for myself + $592 at restaurants. That works out to $213 per month. If it had been a typical year it would have been under $200 for sure.
Once a month I hit Costco and Sam's Club for the bulk of the food and once a week I take advantage of the sales at my local grocery stores.
It also helps that I prefer cheaper foods apparently. Frozen boneless chicken breasts are just over $2 per pound at Costco. I also love rice and spaghetti (both are very inexpensive per serving).
I also love bananas. They tend to cost about 20 cents each. Go figure.
Another belated non-SPAM comment: isn't this E.T.F. due to the demise of pensions (rise of 401ks) rather than anything else? Real pension reserves could drop off simply because fewer people are being offered pensions, not because those with pension promises are getting stiffed (though of course that is also a serious issue)...
I also support the idea of doing a compilation of Trend Failure charts in a single jumbo post; that issue should get a lot of attention. The "new normal" isn't here yet. It may not be any more sustainable than the old normal was, but it can't be less sustainable.
Wisdom Seeker,
Real pension reserves could drop off simply because fewer people are being offered pensions, not because those with pension promises are getting stiffed (though of course that is also a serious issue)...
Absolutely. However, one has to question the timing of the trend failure. I doubt it is a coincidence that it happened when the stock market's trend failure occurred.
As for the compilation of trend failures, there is now a special "exponential trend failure" label at the bottom of each trend failure post that at least allows one to find them easier.
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