Taking a Break (Musical Tribute)

Sorry I haven't been posting much lately.

Let's just say that I've been taking a break from my computer. As a night person, I somehow managed to get on a morning schedule. On the one hand, it allows me to see the sun. That's a good thing I guess. On the other hand, it allows me to see the sun! ;)

I'm fairly sure it is just temporary. I shall return with more charts in the not too distant future. I can't define exactly when that will be but if I'm still on a morning schedule several weeks from now I may need serious medical attention, lol.

And on that note, I shall leave you with something to remember me by.



I played a bit of Rocksmith today, but not at anywhere near this level. Not even the same ballpark!

Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.31 (Musical Tribute)

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On and on we rode the storm. The flame has died, and the fire has gone.



Is anybody out there? Anybody there? Does anybody wonder? Anybody care?

See Also:
Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.30

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims

Nonfinancial Business Debt

Maria Bartiromo of CNBC assures us yet again that American businesses are flush with cash. This is great news!

The following chart shows nonfinancial corporate business debt (in red) and nonfarm nonfinancial nonfarm noncorporate business debt (in blue) as a combined percentage of GDP (stacked chart).


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If businesses are truly flush with cash, then that must mean that they can afford to pay off a small portion of their $12+ trillion debt! As seen in blue, note that the noncorporate businesses are certainly trying. The corporate world can't get enough debt though. No amount is too much! To infinity and beyond!

Put another way, it would seem that companies are generally flush with borrowed cash. That might explain why less than 1% of the companies in the S&P 500 currently have an AAA credit rating. Go figure.

More and more, in fact, companies have found that a AAA credit rating is not something worth aspiring to if a more conservative approach means lower profits.

Please note that this doesn't even include the financial industry. We all know how rock solid that is though. Nothing to fear there. No sir!

Too much sarcasm? It seems excessive this time. Oh, what the hell. In for a penny, in for a pound.



See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Exponential Trend of the Day

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Hey! I actually found an exponential trend chart that hasn't ended in abject failure yet. Although we did get a bit ahead of ourselves in recent years, we're pretty much right on trend!

This is why professional money managers are no doubt paid the big bucks. Sure, as retail investors we could park the money directly in money funds ourselves. Or better still we could also just buy short-term treasury bills directly from the government and hold to maturity. At least there aren't any fees! That would cut out the parasitic institutional middle man though. Where's the fun in that?

Money Market Funds - Risks and Benefits

Why Would I Use Money Market Funds?

Investors who want a decent return from a relatively safe investment use money market funds.

Decent return? Relatively safe? Seriously?

The investments are typically liquid, meaning you can usually get your money out within a few business days.

And do what with it? Buy stocks AFTER they have doubled yet again? Seriously?

You can also take advantage of rising interest rates by keeping your money in an investment that will adjust to the markets.

Take advantage of rising interest rates? Seriously?



See Also:
Weighing the Consequences of a Money Fund Overhaul

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Cliff Diving Chart of the Day

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Let me guess. In the name of prosperity, we've outsourced this to China too? Or perhaps this is proof that our recovery has solid [bicycle tire] traction?

Hey, just theories!

Special thanks to the person who sent me a private email that included a link to this refiner data. It is his believe that bicycle tires might be a good investment. It is not an idea that I can readily discount, lol. Sigh.

See Also:
Global Transportation Rebalancing Underway
CMCTABIFA!

Source Data:
EIA: U.S. Total Gasoline Retail Sales by Refiners
St. Louis Fed: Population

41.1 Million Missing Jobs

Long-Term


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@#$%!


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@#$%!


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@#$%!

Short-Term


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@#$%!


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@#$%!


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@#$%!

Let's take it back to 1984 yet again.


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@#$%!

Those who miraculously can't believe in "new normal" theories ought to at least brace for the old normal theories. As seen in the chart above, we're at the top of the old normal's frickin' channel. It therefore seems incredibly unlikely that the job market is on the verge of spewing candy mountain goodness.

Put another way, got kidney? I believe with every fiber of my being that we will not see 4% year over year payroll growth again in my lifetime. In fact, I'd be pleasantly surprised if we ever hit 2% again (unless we got there through a massive employment crash first of course).

As a side note, what kind of denial drug must one be taking to not believe in new normal theories? And how did I miss out? I can't say it would help my financial health but perhaps I'd at least be sleeping better. They say ignorance is bliss!

I dare the optimists to come up with one reasonable scenario which returns us to the long-term employment trend that spans from 1939 to 2000. It's just not mathematically possible without incredible leaps of irrational faith. A quadrillion in national debt *and* cheap energy? Not reasonable. Each worker has two jobs in an increasingly automated world? Not reasonable. The Fed has permanently put a stop to recessions? Not reasonable.

The old normal theories are about as provably dead as anything in economics could possibly be. Over the long-term, we cannot grow like we once did. In fact, we can barely grow during this economic expansion. How much will the next economic contraction undo? I suspect it will be more than most are willing to believe. And let's not even talk about our massive trade deficit and the sucking sound it is making. Sigh.

See Also:
41.0 Million Missing Jobs

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm

Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.30

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One trend, two trend, red trend, blue trend
Red trend, blue trend, old trend, new trend

See Also:
Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.29
One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims