Thursday, January 3, 2013

Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.30

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

One trend, two trend, red trend, blue trend
Red trend, blue trend, old trend, new trend

See Also:
Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.29
One Fish Two Fish Red Fish Blue Fish

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims


Stagflationary Mark said...

For 30 weeks I've been watching initial claims deviate from the red trend line.

In my opinion, the most likely way we'll deviate from the blue trend line is in the up direction. Sigh.

TJandTheBear said...

I'll second that.

Mr Slippery said...

Trends can be friends
Trends can have bends
You can follow the trends
All the way to the ends

Rob Dawg said...

We've been running out of people who even qualify for initial clais. They haven't been employed long enough to qualify.

dd said...

Watched IRobot yet again last night. It becomes more reality with each viewing.

Rob Dawg said...

Worst screen adaptation ever. Decent movie but total abrogation of the stories and their lessons.

Fatboy said...

Approx. 6 million less covered employees, those eligible to file an initial claim, currently than in Jan. 2009. Plus, lets take the lowball figure of 1.2 million new entrants into the work force per year, 09 thru 12 equals another 4.8 million. Doesnt this skew your chart, long term trend?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,


The more they pretend! Ascend!
The more they extend! Suspend!
The more we depend! Descend!
Overlend! Overspend! Downtrend!

Stagflationary Mark said...


Stop trying to turn my "optimistic" chart into something greatly depressing! ;)

Once iRobots are here in force we can definitely get initial claims way down. Agreed! I just don't want to be a party pooper. Speaking of gallows humor, the employment numbers are out. As expected, we managed another wimpy 155k during an expansion. Wonderful!

All we need to do is just stay on the "new normal" path indefinitely and hope we NEVER have another economic contraction. How hard can that be? The Fed's solved everything! Hurray!