Thursday, April 10, 2014

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day


Click to enlarge.

It is different this time.



Source Data:
FRB: Motor Vehicle Loans

18 comments:

Rob Dawg said...

Fifty million $20k loans. Eh, what could happen?

Troy said...

you can see the boomers emerge from their Carter-given repression in the mid-late 1980s in that graph.

Volcker was a very bad man.

but this:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=wQT

Fed Funds rate 1955 - 1982 is a very funny chart.

The faster you go, the more input you need I guess. One of the Zero's innovations was a flexible linkage between the control stick and the ailerons, this prevented the pilot from over-controlling the aircraft as airspeed increased.

From your link:

2013 Q4 1,225,647.16

$1.225T of mortgaged future in student loans!

At least with a car you have an actual investment in a nuts & bolts wealth-providing good -- something that transports you and your stuff around town pretty well.

$1300/yr for my education in the 80s was a no-brainer, $15,000 now would be a much tougher call.

Certainly the 20-odd CS / UD Math classes were in no way worth $3,000 apiece content-wise, though I suppose if a CS degree is required to get a $100,000+ CS job, then they are.


Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Fifty million $20k loans. Eh, what could happen?

Well...

A lot o' people don't realize what's really going on. They view life as a bunch o' unconnected incidents 'n things. They don't realize that there's this, like, lattice o' coincidence that lays on top o' everything. Give you an example; show you what I mean: suppose you're thinkin' about a plate o' shrimp. Suddenly someone'll say, like, plate, or shrimp, or plate o' shrimp out of the blue, no explanation. No point in lookin' for one, either. It's all part of a cosmic unconciousness. - Miller, Repo Man (1984)

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

$1.225T of mortgaged future in student loans!

Yeah, that's actually the data that I was originally looking for. No joke.

The motor vehicle data took precedence though. What can I say? I'm a sucker for long-term exponential trend failures. That's definitely one of the most impressive.

Luke The Debtor said...

Mark,

I think you and I may be at odds. I see signs pointing to a take-off in consumer spending, especially autos and consumer electronics.

The inventory/sales ratio is building up as total sales, reach the just-before-the-recession levels, and it is all available at a rather cheap price (thanks to the "No Creditor Left Behind Policy").

Perhaps I just need to see another exponential trend failure, and do get well!

Rob Dawg said...

$1.2T in UNDISCHAGEABLE student loans.

Rob Dawg said...

I think you and I may be at odds. I see signs pointing to a take-off in consumer spending, especially autos and consumer electronics.

Luke, you are correct in both cases however they are IMO special cases. Consumer electronics continues to track the economic equivalent of Moore's Law in delivering more value/performance for ever lower prices.

Autos are driven by long delayed replacement needs and low rates and truly horrific borrower qualifying credit scores.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Luke The Debtor,

We'll know more on Monday (the next retail sales report). I am not at all optimistic that the weather can solely explain this decline.

Based on the stock market performance this week, it would seem that I am not alone.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

and truly horrific borrower qualifying credit scores

Bull market in fogged mirrors!

Luke The Debtor said...

Rob and Mark,

My thinking is like this: if someone can't afford a house (or new apartment) then they buy a car; if they can't afford a new car they then buy a new phone/tablet; if they can't afford a new phone/tablet then they get another college degree. So, logically, if someone can't afford another college degree then they must be a homeowner.

Joking aside, I think the lack of housing demand is being funneled into consumer electronics and cars and trucks. Here in Texas, every month is truck month.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Luke The Debtor,

Saw an ad. Buy 4 tires and get a $70 prepaid VISA card.

It seemed a bit silly to not just knock $70 off the price of the tires, but perhaps some people really need that "extra" $70 ASAP. Sigh.

Rob Dawg said...

Prepaid ccards do not acrue interest, sometimes don't get used, provide valuable data.

Rebecca Zegstroo said...

Shingles, shingles go away.
I need my chart fix today!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rebecca,

Hahaha! Your poetry (in combination with my Shingles) brings a tear to my eye!

I just finished the 7 day prescription for the antiviral. Had to take it 5 times per day, which in my world is every 4 hours and 48 minutes. Didn't leave much room for deep slumber.

I should be able to muster up an ugly chart within the next day or so. There's a "euphoric" quarterly retail sales chart I'm dying to do (not literally I hope ;)).

Shingles, Shingles, still remains
I do believe it is my bane
Boosts GDP in many ways
But growth like that is most profane

dd said...

Shingles Shingles
at my door
oh the pain and the sores
But it will recede
and be nevermore
with a vaccine
that many ignore.
So, I got injected
and was very sore
in my arm where a lump arose
but at least there was
no roseola
and so they say I am safe
from its resurface
As a pox upon my soft surface
One hopes there is less pain
along the backside range
And that you will be better
and able to letter
a few more graphs
at which you are so apt.

Nathan said...

Interesting Bloomberg article on stay-at-home moms.


“Financially it didn’t make sense because my paycheck was going to basically be going straight to day care,” said Shannon Puri, 34, a suburban Chicago mother of two who in 2010 left her job as a middle school special education teacher.

After trying babysitters and daycare for a year, Puri and her husband, a dentist, decided to forgo her income and have her stay home full-time.

Stagflationary Mark said...

dd,

The vaccine works but half the time
Without some luck you will still cry
Merck has priced it most insane
But might still give a rashy pain

Painful Shingles Can Strike More Than Once

The shingles vaccine, known as Zostavax, doesn't eliminate all cases. Studies show that it cuts the risk of shingles by about half in people over age 60.

Zostavax, which ranges from $140 to $400, is one of the most expensive of adult vaccines, and only some Medicare Part D plans cover it.

Once people have compromised immune systems, they are no longer eligible, due to the risk that the vaccine could cause shingles rather than prevent it.

In theory, if you have a weakened immune system you are more likely to get Shingles. (I hadn't been sleeping well, which is probably why I got it.)

If you have a weakened immune system, the Shingles vaccine might give you Shingles.

Fantastic.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Nathan,

After trying babysitters and daycare for a year, Puri and her husband, a dentist, decided to forgo her income and have her stay home full-time.

That's a good way to kill GDP growth. Sigh.