Yardeni Research

Today, I wished to see an historical chart of the S&P 500’s earning yields vs. the 10-year treasury yields. I found that chart at Yardeni Reasearch. Dr. Edward Yardeni has a blog (Dr. Ed’s Blog) and I have added it to my blog list.

It’s like reading the optimist version of John Hussman. Both are clearly very intelligent individuals, but only one has offered consistently better investment advice.

Hussman’s Strategic Growth Fund has an average annual total return of just 0.5% since its inception on July 24, 2000 to October 31, 2020. Investors would have been much better off just passively buying I-Bonds purchased that year. Not only would they have locked in 3.4% in interest each year (like I did), but the bonds would have also received inflationary gains (and interest on those inflationary gains). And further, that will continue for another 10 years until they mature in 2030.

It is not my intent to bash Hussman. I do read what he writes and he does offer much to think about, even if I don’t always agree with his conclusions.

I do intend to read all of Dr. Ed’s older posts in the coming weeks. I think there’s a lot of good information to be found there. Here’s a teaser to help get you interested. Dr. Yardeni continues to believe, as I do, that interest rates will remain low for a very long time. Welcome to Japan. There’s so much more to read though, and it’s all very thought provoking.

This brings “the glass is more than half full” blogs in my blog list to 2. Calculated Risk is no longer alone.

Of course, I’m still very concerned about our country’s long-term future. That’s not going to change. However, Rome did not fall in a day. I can’t preserve my standard of living betting on things that may happen long after I’m dead. I have to plan for what is most likely while I’m still alive. Can’t say for sure if my plan to load up on utility stocks in my retirement account is a good one. Hopefully, hindsight will be kind to me. I can say that I’m sleeping better since I did it though, which is a pleasant surprise.