Tuesday, September 13, 2022

Food at Home

The following chart shows the natural log of the consumer price index for food at home. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added a long-term trend channel in green, a steeper short-term trend line in blue (heading into the Great Recession), and an even steeper short-term channel in red (our current trajectory).


The stock market sure doesn't like it. Not one bit. Isn't feeling all that confident about a soft landing. Starting to wonder why the captain's warning of "some pain" while wearing a parachute?

It's not all bad news. Hey, at least we're sitting in the middle of the long-term trend channel. Small comfort, I know.

17 comments:

Who Struck John said...

Next year's chart is simpler: do you have food (Y/N)?

Stagflationary Mark said...

https://www.theonion.com/how-to-make-slow-cooked-russet-potatoes-that-fall-right-1849434830

Who Struck John said...

Spuds are great for staving off famine, until they get a blight and become a black watery inedible mess.

Stagflationary Mark said...

I don’t think the bag of potatoes I tried to buy about a month ago would have staved off famine. My choices consisted of small mostly rotten ones or rotten ones that were mostly small. Slim pickings at QFC (Kroger). I opted to pass.

Fortunately, had much better luck last week. While small, at least they weren’t rotten.

Stagflationary Mark said...

https://hoosieragtoday.com/is-there-a-us-potato-shortage/

Was bad, but apparently getting better.

Who Struck John said...

We in the Northwest are generally graced with a higher quality spud than you find in other locales. Potatoes out of the southern US are not very good.

Stagflationary Mark said...

We are also generally graced with higher quality gardens. ;)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mbBbFH9fAg&feature=share&si=ELPmzJkDCLju2KnD5oyZMQ

Anonymous said...

Potatoes are actually quite easy to grow. I know because I once tried to root some grape vines in potatoes. I got lots of potatoes, but no grape vines. Just make sure you get the potatoes from a farmer rather than the superMARKet. The superMARKet ones have growth inhibitors to delay rooting.

Stagflationary Mark said...

We’ve had great success with dandelions this year. Those things grow like weeds. No matter how much I “harvest” them with a weed-whacker, they just keep coming right back up. Very resilient, lol. ;)

Anonymous said...

Yeah. Those things are a pain. The only thing I’ve found that works is to take a hori knife and decapitate them at the soil level. Then use a small art brush to paint the tap root(s) with Roundup. They generally don’t come back from that. I know that seems insane, but my late mom used to really hate them… so you do whet you have to do.

Of course, you need a fair amount of time and a good back to do that. It also helps if you don’t care that the neighbors know you’re crazy.

Stagflationary Mark said...

I’m pretty sure that ship sailed decades ago. Lived in this house since 1997. Hard to hide my craziness that long. Doesn’t help that I wear shorts, t-shirts, and flip-flops all year long.

I have nothing against dandelions personally. In a perfect world, they’re just pretty flowers. Unfortunately, my neighbors and homeowner association strongly disagree with my vision of a perfect world. And so, I weed-whack them. The dandelions, not the neighbors. I’m not THAT crazy, lol.

My back is another story though. The years are catching up to me. Pretty sure I should not have been carrying around heavy textbooks in a backpack in college on just one shoulder. If I could go back in time to offer advice to a younger me, that would be near the top of the list.

Stagflationary Mark said...

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1570873451514306560?s=20&t=jDG4cpc3y_SladN89rjB_A

Most. Amusing. Chart. Ever. Hahaha! :)

Who Struck John said...

Homeowners associations can never overcome their greatest flaw: there is always some Karen in the neighborhood who will decide that you are not living her best life.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Unfortunately, our Karen is our neighbor. We’re not living his best life. It’s a life apparently consisting of shamelessly displaying a severely tattered and faded American flag wrapped with neglect around his flagpole all year long while complaining endlessly about the state of yards and boats temporarily parked in driveways.

Karens make their own hells. You can’t tell me it’s possible to be generally happy when your mind is filled with endless complaints. Live and let live.

My ex-wife had a lot of Karen in her. In the brief time we were married, she mailed three hateful letters. Surprisingly, she never sent one to me. The wedding photographer, her father, and the best man (my best friend) all got one for unrelated trivial reasons, but yet I was somehow spared. Well, from a letter anyway. Got plenty of verbal reprimands I assure you. ;)

Karens. Go figure.

Who Struck John said...

Maybe gift him a Canadian flag and suggest that if he's going to moan and complain about everybody else's business, he should move to a jurisdiction where that behavior is encouraged?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Oh, Canada… has Karens too, lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiI_Sc-YxdM&feature=share&si=ELPmzJkDCLju2KnD5oyZMQ

Stagflationary Mark said...

https://twitter.com/mariana057/status/1566244746661711873?s=20&t=oxC3GzExHgXQWwAcV7YDPg

Yes!! Hahaha! :)