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I can't speak for others, but I started buying a lot more stuff when the pandemic hit. Stuck at home, not much else to do. Some of that is seen in the chart and was directly responsible for the higher inflation rate in goods. Currently trying to wean myself off of this new temporary behavior.
There's something else going on too though, as seen in the upward slope of the red trend line channel. Here's one theory.
January 22, 2024
Study shows how social media fuels unhappiness and materialism
Clothes, cars, travel, followers: People with a materialistic mindset always want more and, above all, more than others. Social media provides them with ideal opportunities to compare themselves with others, which makes them susceptible to passive and addictive user behavior. This stresses them out and, ultimately, leads to low life satisfaction. This downward spiral, which turns materialists into less happy people, was identified by researchers from Bochum in an online survey of over 1,200 participants. They published their findings in the journal Telematics and Informatics Reports from January, 8, 2024.
18 comments:
The pandemic led a lot of people to review their life situations and make drastic changes. Remote work meant moves to more suburban locations, and remodels for home offices. Many changed career fields, so some services (auto repair, for example) are hard to get. Not surprised to see the ratio so badly out of whack.
If my neighbors are any indication, landscaping services are doing okay. What was once a quiet suburban neighborhood, now has very loud heavy industrial gas-powered mowers and leaf blowers throughout the week, even in the winter when snow is on the ground. Progress, I guess. Sigh.
Out of college, money spent
See no future, pay no rent
All the money's gone
Nowhere to go
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1skg6
employment growth vs. population
it's my thesis that the +14M boomers flooding into the workforce in the late 70s was a large driver of the stagflation era that Volcker tried to fight.
Once they put Greenspan in they just decided to live with inflation + growth.
The only systemic risk I can see at this point, other than the 1% having all the money now, is US fiscal picture blowing up somehow, since we're entirely addicted to eye-watering %/GDP deficits now and it's only going to get worse as the boomers start drawing down the SSTF $2T+.
Are you like me and now scrambling for all the long-duration issues you can find ??
You put me onto TLT with your previous mention, I suck at investing so hadn't even thought of bonds like that.
I regret going to Japan last October man, I could have used that money to buy TLT at the low!
Still all in on TLT in my IRA. Hasn’t been a great investment for me until this year though. Bought too early. No desire to change course now.
So much talk about inflation, but only inflated balloons can pop. Deflated balloons just sit there.
Not suggesting that deflation is a given, of course. However, can’t imagine the price of my home can have that much upside left, at least at these interest rates.
Back around 2006 when CR turned me onto following Fed stuff, I remember seeing the tables of how many 18% 30 year bonds were still around and wishing I had some of those : ) Somebody on CR also mentioned the 'uncallable' WFC-PL and BAC-PL, these are still around but like putting your money in the bank pre-FDIC LOL . . .
On FRED, graphing corporate profits on a log scale does give one pause. I kinda think everything is perfectly priced now, more or less. Buying TLT this past month seems like easy money, but nothing is certain!
I also bought some TLT in December and got out a few months later with a small loss. I had some bonds mature last week and I put all of it and more into VGLT. I am back in the deep end of the pool now.
I am becoming less certain as time goes on, but perhaps for good reason. Entropy increases with time.
Our political and economic systems both seem much more chaotic since I started this blog in 2007, a time when I was also very concerned that too many assets were priced for perfection.
TLT certainly isn’t priced for perfection now. In hindsight, that happened in July of 2020 @ $171 per share.
Doesn’t mean, at its current price of just $101, that it can’t still get a whole lot more imperfect from here.
I hope not though.
1. My IRA is filled with it.
2. Million dollar homes and ever-rising mortgage rates are not at all compatible. Can’t imagine the damage that would do to our economy.
"May You Live In Interesting Times"
The multiverse may be real and we may be living in a parallel reality many might not consider optimal. *shrug*
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BIrN
so many fun FRED charts to talk about. It saddens me that we lost CR as a forum for this kind of stuff.
The worst map/chart I’ve seen lately was the outage map from Puget Sound Energy. It told me all I needed to know about the odds I’d be needing to throw out all the food from our fridge and garage freezer. And sure enough, that’s exactly what did happen.
Worst power outage for us since I moved into this house in 1997. On a brighter note, feels a bit cathartic to be able to deep clean the garage freezer. It’s 25+ years old and at some point its defrost cycle drainage got clogged with seemingly permanent ice. Been living with that for years. It’s sitting empty and off right now though, with the door wide open, until its completely thawed and bone dry.
…until IT’S completely thawed… Ugh. *shrug*
After power dropped here for 4 hours, I picked up two 1kWh LiFePO power stations, one for each fridge/freezer . . . my 40kWh Nissan LEAF could provide 120V for days but I have to be home for that, plus I sold it this year . . .
I noticed the latest Corporate Profits number is now in FRED:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BP0I
YouTube investment advisors are telling people to expect 8% CAGR over the next 30 years, taking the S&P 500 to 60,000 in 2035.
Then again the S&P is up 12X since 1994. Heck, Revised Dual Lands (when I got into the game) go for $500 - $800 now.
One share of AAPL is up ~1000X since 1994 LOL.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BP2v
shows corporate tax rate at 12% is half it was in the 1990s. Easy way to double the market, sigh.
Trying to go through the next 4 years without making an unnecessary purchase LOL. Bring on the storm!
So long my December DRIPs, nice to have had them : (
I wish I had a thesis going into this year. With split government I was expecting a total fiscal s-show, but my only feeling now is expecting a total fiscal clown show.
TLT would have been good in the former case but maybe not so good now...
I’m definitely bracing for a total clown show.
Half of my brain continues to hold TLT but the other half of my brain is holding TIPS and inflation protected savings bonds, purchasing things made in other countries that might have tariffs placed on them next year, and simultaneously stocking up on things made in the USA that undocumented workers help produce, like food.
I have this uneasy feeling that stagflationary could be making a comeback soon, or worse. Hard to accurately predict the actions of clowns. *shrug*
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