"Everything Is Bigger in Texas"

The last post turned my attention to Texas. I was curious to know more.

The following chart shows the population of Texas as a percentage of the United States.


Click to enlarge.

Parabolic, huh? Nice.

I've often thought that humans act as locusts on this planet. That includes myself. I'm not attempting to be preachy here.

That said, is there a point when a single locust turns to the others and says, "Hey, have you noticed our dwindling resource situation?"

November 5, 2014
Rubinstein: Texas at front of water issues

Of course, everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes our future population. We continue to grow every day, and it is estimated that the population will increase 82 percent in the next 50 years. That translates to approximately 1,000 people moving to Texas per day — and none of them are bringing water with them. We also know that in that same 50-year period, we will need an additional 8.3 million acre-feet of water.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Where's the Beef?

The following chart shows the 5-year moving average of the consumer price index for uncooked ground beef.


Click to enlarge.

When it comes to parabolic growth failures, ground beef appears to be one of the last holdouts.

What can't go on forever, won't. That said, ground beef prices are currently growing at about a 6% annual rate (using the recent annual change in the 5-year moving average). The parabola is slowly accelerating that growth though. Who can say for sure how many more years it can continue? In theory, I could be dead and buried by the time this trend fails.

Fortunately, I like chicken. I have no problem substituting. If your life revolves around a good burger or steak though, well, sorry about that. I would advise crossing your fingers that this trend fails soon.

December 1, 2014
Beef prices soar upward

Blame a rebounding economy, which tends to push prices higher.

As seen in the chart, that's roughly 14 years of rebound! Shame on you rebounding economy!

“Everybody is getting their drought or series of droughts,” he said.

As seen in the chart, that's roughly 14 years of drought! Let them eat cake!

“The people that would slaughter the cows, who needed those cows to keep those plants open, would pay more for the declining number of cows,” he said. “The same principal applies with gold and diamonds or oil.”

In theory, higher prices should eventually fix the declining number of cows problem, especially now that the price of oil has fallen again. In practice, a little rain wouldn't hurt. Seriously.

November 9, 2014
4 years of drought: Texas dry spell unfaltering, experts say

The plans start with voluntary limits on use, such as irrigating lawns only once every five days and taking showers instead of baths, but can incrementally become mandatory when conditions warrant stricter limits on use.

Perhaps lawns in potential drought areas aren't really a good idea in general. Just a thought.

“In general, (Texas usually) has barely enough water to meet our needs, and it’s one of those things that once we use it — it’s gone,” Huckaby said.

So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

Source Data:
BLS: CPI Databases

Recreational Deflation: Making Sure "It" Happens Here

The following chart shows the 5-year moving average of the CPI for recreation.


Click to enlarge.

The next chart shows the 5-year moving average of amusements, gambling, and recreation employment.


Click to enlarge.

Unless I was mistaken, wasn't this the sort of discretionary leisurely thing our strong and resilient service economy was supposed to excel at? You know, while the rest of the world was making goods for us, we'd be amusing ourselves, gambling, and recreating?

November 21, 2002
Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here

But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

But consumers have a technology, called dog playtime (or, today, our dogs Honey and Cocoa equivalent), that allows consumers to produce as many DHOF (dog-hours-of-fun) as they wish at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of DHOF in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, consumers can increase the value of DHOF in terms of recreational services, which is equivalent to lowering the prices in DHOF of those recreational services. We conclude that, under a best-things-in-life-are-often-free system, determined consumers can always generate lower recreational spending and hence positive deflation.

November 30, 2014
Cyber Weekend Madness: Honey vs. Thingamabob



And don't even get me started on VGHOF (video-game-hours-of-fun). That's just right off the charts. In fact, there is one game I still enjoy playing on the Playstation 2! I kid you not.

Source Data:
CPI: Recreation
BLS: CES Databases

Carol of the Parabolas (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 3-year moving average of annualized private lodging construction per capita (September 2014 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

Woohoo! 3 parabolas in a row!

Hey! Where's the next parabola? Don't tell me it's different this time.



Chart of the bells
Oh, bloody hell
It seems to say,
"Just stay away."
The guests aren't here
Drinking our beer
Too young and old
We too shall fold

Things, wrong, things, wrong
This is our song
Telephone rings
Expenses sting
One came so near
But ran in fear
So much despair
Caught in crosshairs

Problems compound
It so confounds
They still downscale
Like a folktale
Some try spending
Mostly on bling
As the rich sneer,
"Christmas is here!"

"Merry, merry, merry, merry Christmas!"
"Merry, merry, merry, merry Christmas!"

Why won't they spend?
On without end?
They cannot own
Their foreclosed homes

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Mount Fed More

The following chart shows the 522-week moving average (~10 years) of the effective federal funds rate.


Click to enlarge.

As seen in the chart, there was an exponential trend in blue. It failed.

Fortunately, the Fed was able to replace it with a similar exponential trend in red. If this isn't a sign of the rising long-term interest rate environment that many believe we find ourselves in, then I don't know what is.

Retail Sales Soar, Making a Rate Rise by the Fed More Likely

''We've got consumers on a tear,'' said L. Douglas Lee, economist at HSBC Securities in Washington. ''They're spending what they're earning.''

Woohoo!

'Growth is far more than people thought,'' said Debbie Jansen, senior economist at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago. This will make the Fed ''more nervous,'' she added, and therefore ''raises the odds that they're going to tighten'' monetary policy to keep inflation under control.

There's no denying that the economy is growing again.

The economy, now six years from the end of the latest recession, has recently been growing faster than what most experts believe is its long-term potential.

Has it really been six years since the end of the latest recession? The recession ended in June of 2009. Let's call it 5 1/2 years. There's no reason to exaggerate.

''There's been a much stronger tendency of consumers to splurge'' because of the bull market, he argued.

I find it hard to argue with that logic.

Still other reports today showed that first-time applications for unemployment insurance fell an additional 5,000 last week, to 307,000, reflecting a very strong job market.

Hold on a minute. The initial claims report is issued on Thursdays. This is not Thursday. What's going on? Oh, I see the problem. I really must apologize. This article is from 1997. I should have probably looked harder to find something more current.

November 27, 2014
Abe Tested by Weak Retail Sales as Japan Election Looms: Economy

He said last week the BOJ’s inflation gauge may fall below 1 percent, backtracking on his prediction in July that there was no such chance.

Japan? Sorry. I did it again. I should have probably looked harder to find retail sales in a country closer to us. You know, one that isn't stuck in ZIRP yet. I'll make one more attempt but that's it!

December 1, 2014
Stocks sink after retail sales slip, China slows

NEW YORK - Signs of weakness in China's economy and a weak start to the holiday shopping season knocked the stock market lower on Monday.

Oh, yes. That's much better. I am filled with optimism!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Effective Federal Funds Rate

Wage Growth: Dead Cat Parabola

The following chart shows the 6-month moving average of the annual hourly earnings growth of production and nonsupervisory private service providing employees.


Click to enlarge.

Conventional wisdom says, "As the unemployment rate falls, hourly earnings growth must rise. Companies will be forced to pay more to attract quality workers."

Unconventional wisdom says, "Service employment glut. With so many service providing workers out there competing with each other, how can any individual service worker expect to get ahead?"

Let's hope conventional wisdom finally has it right this time, or our service economy risks getting seriously "serviced" yet again.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Quote of the Day: "It's made the job a lot easier."

December 1, 2014
Amazon's new robot army is ready to ship

"It's made the job a lot easier."

Despair.com: Motivation

If a pretty poster and a cute saying are all it takes to motivate you, you probably have a very easy job. The kind robots will be doing soon.

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day: Real Unemployment Benefits per Unemployed

The following chart shows the 6-month moving average of real annualized unemployment benefits per unemployed (October 2014 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

New record low! It would seem that many of the unemployed are no longer getting unemployment benefits. Shocking. Surely this is a sign of future prosperity.

This is in sharp contrast with the new record high set just a few years ago. That was a time when nearly every unemployed was getting benefits. As you may recall, it was an unhappy period filled with financial innovation and unhappiness.

Now that the Fed has permanently put a stop to all future recessions, it seems unlikely that we'll even need much unemployment insurance from here on out. How cool is that?

Growing economic stability and sarcasm, baby. That's what I'm talking about.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart