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February Job Losses: Have We Hit Bottom?
The 651,000 jobs lost in February was not as bad as some feared, but it turns out December and January were worse than first thought
Let's work with what we know.
As seen in the charts above, the long-term unemployment trends are bad.
December was first thought to be bad. Upon second thought, December was actually worse than that.
January was first thought to be bad. Upon second thought, January was actually worse than that.
February is first thought to be bad. We have have not been provided with second thoughts for February yet.
See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Civilian Unemployment Rate
St. Louis Fed: Median Duration of Unemployment
4 comments:
Stag,
I've been thinking about the unemployment trends (higher rates and longer durations).
I imagine Donald Luskin and his ilk would attribute it to our massive accumulated wealth. You know the thinking - we're so rich as a country we no longer need to work as much.
It's a plausible argument if (big IF) you only look at the asset side of the balance sheet.
Less is more.
mab,
I have no more financial heroes. I watched Buffett talk for a few hours earlier this morning.
It made me sigh more than once. My first sigh came from seeing that the interview was held in a furniture store. I paraphrase from memory...
1. We have the potential of inflation worse than the 1970s.
2. Our children will have it better than we will and our grandchildren will have it better than our children.
In my opinion (from a programmer's perspective), if ONE then NOT TWO.
Further, I'm already a big believer in NOT TWO for the masses.
A. Middle and lower income wages have not been keeping up with inflation for a LONG time.
B. Middle and lower income jobs are competing with billions of global workers who will work for peanuts. We have reached the painful part of the exponential parabola.
C. Middle and lower income educational costs have been skyrocketing and yet a college degree is the new high school degree. The average person now needs more than that to compete. Some would say that a college degree isn't needed if one is smart enough. I would agree. However, by definition the average person cannot be smarter than the average person. The average person therefore needs more education than the average person? That doesn't work either of course.
D. Middle and lower income workers are one paycheck away from finding out what no medical insurance can do to one's entire way of life. Based on what I am seeing, that even applies to those WITH medical insurance. Medical bills devastate my girlfriend's finances.
E. Middle and lower income retirement funds are keeping up... with the Titanic.
F. Middle and lower income debt is astronomical. One doesn't need to even look at the data. All it takes is a gut and a brain that can watch a television debt consolidation commercial or two to see what is being peddled and/or a brain that can count the number of payday loan stores on the way to the nearest supermall. Of course, Warren Buffett doesn't have debt, nor do many other fairly well-off people (myself included). Unfortunately, the well-off not having debt just skews the averages and makes things look better than they really are. I'm a big believer in income inequality pain and debt inequality pain. It can be shared with the pessimists and the optimists alike.
G. Middle and lower income workers were sold an illusion of prosperity. This illusion allowed them to spend more than they actually had to make up for the differences as listed above. Unfortunately, the realty debt illusion has been replaced by a reality of debt reality.
I chuckled when I saw what someone had written in Calculated Risk's comments last night though. I paraphrase it too from memory.
It's not just Charles Ponzi. It's his sister Rosie Scenario.
I see that his sister kicked @$$ again today, especially over at the Nasdaq.
Stag,
I have no more financial heroes. I watched Buffett talk for a few hours earlier this morning.
Between the lines, Buffett has been begging for inflation. Our wealthiest individual is looking for bailouts and financial theft via inflation. Disgraceful.
As I've repeatedly stated at CR for many months now, I've lost all respect for Buffett. It started with his repeated vanity appearances on the financial propaganda network, CNBC. Shamefully inappropriate validation and vanity imo.
Buffett's "Tarp" investing in GS & GE was also offensive - capitalist my @ss. Kleptocrat is more apt.
Buffett's op-ed pumping stocks when the S&P 500 was at 941 was the final straw. Call me a skeptic, but Buffett never, ever was an acquirer of stocks at those levels. He made his fortune buying stocks at much lower valuations - generally at least 50% lower valuations. Only after Buffett was primarily a stock (bag)holder, rather than a stock acquirer did Buffett urge people to buy and/or hold. Shameless. Boo on Buffett.
Sadly, your comments are spot on imo. And that only makes the bailouts for the wealthy more offensive.
I'm sorry to hear about your girl friends insurance travails. Maybe this helps: On numerous occasions myself and my extended family have challenged medical insurance companies on payment issues. Generally, you get nowhere until you exhaust the in-company reviews and appeal the claim to the state review board. The insurance companies fight a war of attrition. They expect you to give up. The prospect of a State review forces them to treat you fairly.
One more thing. If you are not successful with the insurance company, negotiate aggressively with the care provider. The rates are all over the map - huge differences in charges for services exist. I've always felt I was entitled to the lowest rate. When those bastards threaten me with collections, I threaten them with a law suit for damaging my credit standing. It's a war. Sometimes you have to fight fire with fire.
mab,
My girlfriend works in human resources at not-for-profit health & services organization. Her problem is that she's got a chronic condition that's expensive.
That being said, she also gets to hear the harder luck stories of others. Take the single mom who recently passed out on the job due to starvation because she makes roughly minimum wage and was using her paycheck to feed her kids instead of herself.
I suppose Buffett is right on that. Her kids ARE going to have it better than her. Well, until they have to feed their kids that is. Sigh.
Between the lines, Buffett has been begging for inflation.
Seeing the interview inside a furniture store really turned me off. It wasn't just the furniture though.
Take See's Candy. It was mention five times and that last mention really makes your point.
http://everythingwarrenbuffett.blogspot.com/2009/03/full-cnbc-squawk-box-transcript-video.html
1. We own See's Candy.
2. So we have bought and hold See's Candy since 1972.
3. Yeah, well, I--in terms of our businesses, the ones we buy, like See's Candy or those, we really do plan to hold them forever.
4. Well, the answer is I won't give you a number, but I will tell you, for example, that here's See's Candy that we bought in 1972 and we paid $25 million for it.
5. You know, if the dollar becomes way--worth way less, we will sell See's Candy for more money.
I would argue that if the dollar becomes way--worth way less in the coming years, there will be fewer people who can actually afford overpriced chocolate.
http://www.sees.com/
Traditional favorites and best selling assorted chocolates starting at $15.60 per pound.
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