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Let's start with something I said last month.
March 9, 2009
2nd Half of Year Recovery Postponed Again
2nd Half of 2007? Nope.
2nd Half of 2008? Nope.
2nd Half of 2009? Not likely.
Okay, now let's move to today's prediction for the electronics industry.
April 6, 2009
When will the recovery begin?
An improving global economic environment should enable the electronics industry to enter into a sustainable recovery in the second half of 2010, allowing a reacceleration in sales in 2011.
2nd Half of 2010? Likely.
Further, the analysts warned that while it is less likely, overall sustainable growth could be pushed into 2011.
2nd Half of 2011? Less likely.
The analysts believe that damage from the current industry recession will not be soon forgotten.
With so many blogs tracking potential 2nd half of year recoveries, I doubt the damage will ever be forgotten.
November 25, 1998
The net never forgets
Kahle says he launched his project because "we need to preserve our digital heritage. Unless we start saving it, every passing day we're losing the record of one of the great turning points in human history."
That was said back in 1998? I nominate that for the Understatement of the Millenium Award.
Q4 GDP Tracking: Mid 2% Range
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From Goldman:
We left our *Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4%
(quarter-over-quarter annualized)* but boosted our Q4 domestic final sales
forecas...
2 hours ago
4 comments:
Stag,
"we need to preserve our digital heritage. Unless we start saving it, every passing day we're losing the record of one of the great turning points in human history."
In the above, if you replace the word "digital" with "debt" you have a perfect descrition of our current eCONomic situation.
I really question the whole "recovery" meme. The last "recovery" put most of America in the poor house. Or perhaps I should say "out" of their house. I literally don't see how the majority can can afford another recovery.
I want to vomit every time I think about how the government is pledging my family's future work to preserve false wealth, especially bank bondholder value and banker bonuses.
mab,
I really question the whole "recovery" meme. The last "recovery" put most of America in the poor house. Or perhaps I should say "out" of their house. I literally don't see how the majority can can afford another recovery.
We just need to rework how we look at the majority's finances. Think EBITDA!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebitda
All interest, tax, depreciation and amortization entries in the Income Statement are reversed out from the bottom line Net Income. Whether it measures anything of value is debated.
Stag,
Think EBITDA!
Now THAT is the kind of creative thinking that will make us wealthier. Maybe we can even leverage the idea with a public/private partnership.
This movie was on the other night:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_a_mad_mad_mad_mad_world
I can't help but think that some wall street eCONomists watched the movie and decided that if people would go crazy over $350K, then senselessly adding trillions to the eCONomy would cause some really, really crazy behavior. A perfect environment for selling shams.
mab,
Now THAT is the kind of creative thinking that will make us wealthier. Maybe we can even leverage the idea with a public/private partnership.
If you only knew! EBITDA holds a special place in my heart/stomach. After the fraud hit Cendant and my stock options turned worthless, they decided to start a whole new type of bonus/compenstation scheme in my division based on EBITDA. It was a public/private (company/worker) partnership. No joke!
My first reaction was that I really wanted to vomit.
I can't help but think that some wall street eCONomists watched the movie and decided that if people would go crazy over $350K, then senselessly adding trillions to the eCONomy would cause some really, really crazy behavior. A perfect environment for selling shams.
I am so torn. The inflation finger on my right hand is twitching. The deflation finger on my left hand is clutching.
At what point am I actually going to be able to embrace stagflation again? I'm actually starting to buy into the idea that even though cash is being injected by the wheelbarrow, credit is being destroyed by the ton.
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