Monday, November 30, 2009

Copper Kettle Mania?

The copper price has been nearly fully re-inflated to pre-bubble popping levels. See here.

Copper kettle mania in China leads to massive jump in prices

As one commodities banker told me: "The Chinese traders assure me that demand for copper kettles from households has increased massively. They can't buy copper derivatives, but they can buy those."

...

This is not the Chinese government cleverly diversifying its way out of the dollar, as some retail commodities salesmen and advisers would have it. The Chinese state has declared purchases of just 235,000 tonnes this year, and has made it clear that it is unhappy with the rise in the copper price, and with private Chinese speculation.

Hell hath no fury like a Communist Central Bank's currency scorned?

What they plan to do about it, what they can do about it, and/or when they plan to do something about it are certainly topics open for discussion.

Perhaps the small Chinese investors have a savvy exit strategy all planned out. Then again, maybe they don't. Who knows?

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hoarding becomes a prime-time disorder
http://tinyurl.com/y9zyd4e

Mark, I don't know why I thought of you when I saw that headline.

LOL
Kevin

Stagflationary Mark said...

Kevin,

You'll be happy to know that my garbage can is full each week, I take it to the curb, AND it comes back empty. ;)

There's hope for me yet, lol.

Anonymous said...

Mark,
There is an elderly lady in her 90's in this town I live in and from what I here that fits her house to a tee, trials going into each room with crap stacked to the ceiling after years of accumulation. I wouldn't want to be her kids when she goes.

There was another one here and they put her in a rest home and the kids got one of those 30' dumpsters and filled it until it overflow and had it hauled to the dump, she had been married to a guy that worked at the dump who had passed away a few years before so I guess that was a good place for that crap.
Humans a weird animals:-)
Kevin

Stagflationary Mark said...

Kevin,

I've seen that hoarders show on TV and it's really amazing to see what people will hoard in their fridges.

You'd think there'd be at least some sort of self-preservation gene that always kicks in once perishables perish. Not the case apparently.

Anonymous said...

Mark,

"self-preservation gene that always kicks in once perishables perish"

I think I have one of those genes it's called a gag reflex:-) It must not come as standard equipment, maybe mom and dad had to pay extra for it. Don't know.

LOL
Kevin

Stagflationary Mark said...

Kevin,

I have a gag reflex right now. I'm simply thinking about what I saw on the TV. I'm also thankful that the TV only offers two of the five senses. I was mercifully denied the remaining sensations of touch, taste, and smell. Hahaha!

G.H. said...

"Perhaps the small Chinese investors have a savvy exit strategy all planned out. Then again, maybe they don't. Who knows?"

I can't help the Chinese investor specifically but I do have an exit stategy for small investors of any nationality.

PCU (Southern Copper Corp.) crossed its 195 day ma on 04/30 and on 07/10 its 195 turned upwards. This was buy time on an issue that has a fair dividend yield and excellent liquidity.

DBB (PowerShares DB Base Metals), with 40% of holdings in LME copper futures, lagged only slightly behind PCU showing the same trend characteristics.

In either case, if you're lucky enough to have bought either of these in the past 6 months so, protect your profits with a simple sell-stop strategy (7-9% off highs) for the day when this long-in-the-tooth rally fizzles.

Stagflationary Mark said...

G.H.,

That's some chart of PCU.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PCU&t=2y

It's like all wrongs were righted.

Or as the police might say... There's nothing to see here. Please disperse.

Just one problem. I'm still looking at the crime scene. What's up with all those chalk outlines?

G.H. said...

Are you sure that's chalk you see?

All I see is broken glass pieces from the Feds discount window.

Stagflationary Mark said...

G.H.,

LOL! Nice one.