Friday: No Major Economic Releases
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Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, *University of Michig...
10 hours ago
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Hppy Thanksgiving to Mark and all the regulars. Enjoy the holiday and watch some football.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Happy Thanksgiving!
Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving yesterday.
Just a couple of thoughts, I heard this morning that 73% of consumers were expecting to spend less this year and also retailers did not order as much inventory for this Christmas.
After hearing this it came to my mind about a post that I had read over at the 'Market Ticker' awhile back saying basically the same thing (about the retailers not ordering as much inventory).
My take of KD's post was that we couldn't have a better than expected Christmas season even if we wanted to because we simply don't have the goods here to sell this year.
So Mark, you could be correct on your take of a deflation event or something of that sort after this Christmas season.
On a side note, I just came back from the mall and WallyWorld (yeah, I'm nuts to be out in that mess but I just HAD to have some tire cleaner) and from my past experience it was considerably less busy than in other years.
They used to have to park on the grass because the parking lot was full, not today though, plenty of parking spaces left.
Ominious omen or just a fluke?
I think the former.
There is no way I am going out to the stores today, so I cannot offer the observations that Watchtower has. Last year I would have bet big bucks that sales were going to be terrible, but they were pretty good. I imagine this year will be the same. Americans just cannot stop spending money they don't have.
GYSC said:
"There is no way I am going out to the stores today"
You're obviously not out of tire cleaner : )
watchtower,
I'm going to guess that stores have ample inventory on everything except the bait-and-switch doorbuster items. It's just a guess though. While it is true that inventories are down from last year, that really doesn't tell us all that much. What really matters will be how the reduced sales match up to the reduced inventories.
I also won't be reading much into this weekend's sales activity and mall traffic. If desperate shoppers need a bargain, sitting overnight in a tent to get a good price on the kid's toys isn't bad work if you don't have a job or think you might not. It doesn't mean you'll be paying full price for a big screen TV though, especially if you already have one and you still owe money on it.
It will be interesting what happens once this weekend is over. Then what?
All that said, I think today's stock and oil market downside activity adds to your "Ominious omen" theory. If nothing else, those planning to visit the malls this weekend now have something deflationary to ponder. Talk about bad timing for what the experts kept telling us was a sure thing.
I was told today's mini-crash was a good thing though. It showed how resilient the market is that it wasn't even worse. Like we've never heard that before!
GYSC,
"Americans just cannot stop spending money they don't have."
And cannot stop investing money they don't even have (other people's money). Think real estate.
And cannot stop getting paid for jobs they don't even have (unemployment, China). Picture my girlfriend.
Prosperity, baby. Lick it up! Lick... it... up.
(The lick it up comment is a movie quote. Hint: Winona Ryder.)
Mark,
too easy it was one of my favorite films:
"Heathers"
I think KISS also has a song tilted lick it up as well.
Yeah, I really liked Heathers too. It wasn't a completely accurate quote. I think I moved baby to the prosperity sentence but I figured you'd probably get it. ;)
Mark,
"Heathers" made Friday night entertainment!
Stag,
Another Fed gem from the past:
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2002/el2002-09.html
The author is an absolute idiot(that's not hyperbole either). He's a koolaide drinker. His focus on our gross savings rather than our net savings reveals the blind spot in current eCONomic thought. Namely, it ignores the cost of "growth" (the DEBT!). While gross national savings had not dropped precipitously at the time of the articles publishing, net national savings had plummeted. Current eCONomic thought also ignores distribution - another big mistake.
From the link:
To the extent that these factors are important, the current low personal saving rate would not represent a problem that is overhanging the U.S. economy, but is instead a manifestation of a more efficient deployment of the economy's resources.
That statement really makes one appreciate the "efficient" allocation of the eCONomy's resources into high yield/high ROI granite counter tops. Price does not equal value, the Fed needs to learn this.
Debt was the driving force underpinning all these increased "wealth" metrics. Why couldn't/can't they see it?
mab,
From your link...
"Had the stock market appreciation of the 1990s been the sole reason for the low personal saving rate, its decline would also portend weaker consumption."
Hello weaker consumption.
In order to do the deadpan humor justice, we should all probably turn to face the camera now.
"Who Writes This Crap"
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/WhoWritesThisCrap
From Top Secret:
Nick Rivers: Listen to me Hillary. I'm not the first guy who fell in love with a woman that he met at a restaurant who turned out to be the daughter of a kidnapped scientist only to lose her to her childhood lover who she last saw on a deserted island who then turned out fifteen years later to be the leader of the French underground.
Hillary Flammond: I know. It all sounds like some bad movie.
(Long pause. Both look at camera)
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