Wednesday, May 18, 2011

"No Reason to Panic" Deja Vu

May 17, 2011
No rush to sell commodities

"Ask yourself why you got into commodities in the first place," said Jeff Tjornehoj, senior research analyst for Lipper. "If you bought in because you felt your portfolio was not capturing the full market of securities, then you should have known that there is no free lunch and that the run would not go on forever. Backing away now would just reopen that hole in your portfolio. And if you have commodities in their proper place -- so that they are a smaller portion of your overall holdings -- there's just no reason to panic."

August 9, 2007
Stock Market Roller Coaster: No Reason to Panic

It's basic economic human nature to get frightened when the stock market drops as much as did Thursday. And with 11 of the past 15 sessions ending in a triple-digit loss or gain, investors should be wondering what's going on. But most experts agree there is no reason to panic.

December 3, 2006
Decline in some home prices no reason to panic

How bad is that? Not a lot, but it's still important: Median-price decreases have been unusual in recent years. They signal that something negative is under way in the marketplace. But given the unprecedented run-ups in real estate prices during the boom years, plus near-record low mortgage rates fueling those fires, who is really shocked by a 1.2 percent decline?

February 21, 2001
Small investors told not to panic

Small investors are being urged by financial advisors to ride out the storm on the London Stock Exchange.

...

Richard Smith, an independent financial advisor with the IFS Group, based in Crawley, west Sussex, said: "There is no reason to panic. I think yesterday (Tuesday) was an overreaction, there's been a mortgage war for the last two years. This is a cyclical market place and it will correct itself."


October 17, 1989
Stock antics no reason to panic, analysts say

If we do see a recession in 1990, I don't think it would be a result of this market drop. - David Resler, Economist, Nomura Securities International

November 28, 1977
Trade Deficit Hits Record

Treasury Secretary Michael Blumenthal acknowledged two weeks ago that the deficit was "worrisome" and added that it "certainly cannot be allowed to persist forever."

However, he said, there is "no reason to panic and no excuse for reactions in ways that could jeopardize the overall health of the U.S. economy or that adversely affect world recovery in general.

7 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

I'm a firm believer in the saying...

If one must panic, at least panic first.

I know I am prey. I spook easy and it hasn't exactly hurt me much.

The predators continually tell the prey what the prey wants to hear though. No need to panic! Don't run! Everything is going to work out great!

Put another way, who really thinks that they can outsmart Goldman Sachs by spending a few hours learning free online trading strategies from their broker? Or by investing in hot trends that everyone already knows about?

getyourselfconnected said...

There is a saying by Alaskan fishing guides; I don't have to outrun a grizzly bear, just my clients! Good fit.

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

Home prices are falling again and we finally have an economic theory that may explain exactly why they are.

Why home prices are falling -- again

Too few buyers with too many homes for sale depresses prices.

Based on the complexity of the question, I expected the answer to be 42. Boy do I feel stupid! ;)

Troy said...

"and still-favorable long-term demographics, as the United States is one of the few wealthy nations set to enjoy an expanding workforce in the years to come -- unlike Japan and most of Europe"

ah aha aha ha.

Higher taxes
Lower government wage incomes
Commodity inflation

Pick 2, if we're lucky.

Wage level 6X higher than Chindia. Ol' Perot was right back in 1992. I didn't bother to vote in the 1990s but I'd sure vote for him now.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

and still-favorable long-term demographics, as the United States is one of the few wealthy nations set to enjoy an expanding workforce in the years to come -- unlike Japan and most of Europe

Please don't stop heckling there! The next paragraph is juicy too.

And over the medium term, household formations are set to bounce back from 50-year lows as young adults realize that living with Mom and Dad to save on rent loses its appeal pretty quickly.

Let's just carry that logic one step further.

May 19, 2011
Officials meet over homelessness

PARKERSBURG - Nearly a hundred people, representing government, churches and social, medical and charitable services, gathered at the City Building Wednesday to discuss the area's growing homeless population and find ways to deal with the problem.

Household formations are set to bounce back once the homeless realize that living on the streets loses its appeal pretty quickly!

Jazzbumpa said...

I paniced in 2004.

Cheers!
JzB

Stagflationary Mark said...

Jazzbumpa,

I did too! It was the fall of 2004. There were just way too many insane mortgage offers in my mail box. It didn't help that Citigroup had grown to become one of my top holdings.

I knew I no longer wanted to own stocks but since interest rates were so low I didn't feel all that comfortable just sitting in cash either. I put a third of my nest egg in gold and silver (but sold during the first parabola in 2006).

Had I been able to embrace the panic for 7 years, I clearly would have done even better. I sold when silver was just over $10 for a 50% profit. The mind boggles at its current price.