Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Dividend vs. Wage Stability

Click to enlarge.

Eight sigma events are totally sustainable. Don't let the naysayers tell you different.

This is not investment advice. It has been infused with sarcasm for your viewing pleasure though.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


mab said...

I'll see your eight sigma event and raise it:

“We are seeing things that were 25-standard deviation events, several days in a row," --- David Viniar, Goldman Sach’s chief financial officer (during the 2008 financial crisis).

25 sigma events day after freakin day????

Makes you wonder why he didn't just state the obvious and admit that their models were junk!

Stagflationary Mark said...


I don't know what went wrong with our models. They worked great on the weather.

We picked a nice sunny summer day to test them. Every millisecond we sampled the rain gauges. Once we had a few million samples we analyzed the data and formed a climate model.

The model worked like a charm but then one day, out of nowhere, we got a massive number of infinite sigma readings. Makes no sense! Where did all that water come from?

It was decided that our model was correct once we threw out the anomalies, which we did. Every now and then the anomalies would reappear, but that could be attributed to many factors outside of our control. We refuse to taint our model with strings of bad luck. And in all honesty, who really wants to check the rain gauges in the rain anyway?

Over the past month, one of our more brilliant analysts provided a solution that has eliminated all of the anomalies. He's going to get one heck of a bonus this year for suggesting that we move the rain gauges indoors when dark clouds appear. We still don't know why his trick works, but it definitely does!

mab said...

but that could be attributed to many factors outside of our control.

Funny that Goldman's models didn't account for the fraud as Goldman was in on the fraud.

(im)Plausible deniability!

Of course Goldman did account for the fraud via the greater fools at AIG. And then we had the even greater fools at the Fed and Treasury. All backed up by the biggest fools of all in the U.S. Congress.

Representative Gov't! Bah!

Stagflationary Mark said...


Never more to go astray!

The jig is up, the news is out they finally found me
The renegade who had it made retrieved for a bounty
Never more to go astray
This'll be the end today of the wanted man, the wanted man