Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Investment Advice Insanity

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory investment advice employee minutes worked per capita.

Click to enlarge.

As seen in the long-term trend, the "expert" advice is spewing exponentially. It's as if the floodgates have been opened. That said, it looks like we're starting to run out of greater fools again though. Oh oh.

The next chart shows the 12-month moving average of how much these financial "experts" are paid per hour in inflation adjusted terms.

Click to enlarge.

Is it any wonder they are so optimistic? Stocks for the long run, blah, blah, blah. Now cough up $38.20 (February's recent peak) or forever be priced out!

As a side note, who really believes the advice is nearly twice as good as it was in 1991? We might need to hedonically adjust that advice inflation to factor in dotcom bubbles, housing bubbles, subprime fiascos, debt crises, higher unemployment, $100 oil, perma-ZIRP, and what not. Few "experts" could have seen that coming! Can't blame them for the perfect despair storm. The view out the rear view mirror looked fantastic!

This is not investment advice.


After further review, I noticed that the first chart's data was per capita and not per 1,000 people. That's been fixed.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: CPI
St. Louis Fed: Population

No comments: