Solutions to All of Our Problems! v.8

How do we solve the unemployment problem? We turn to a state with extra experience and follow their lead!


Click to enlarge.

Note the uptick.

August 5, 2012
New York says: Breast-feed or else

If you want to use infant formula in the hospital, you will have to ask a nurse for it. The nurse will be required to deliver a grim lecture on why you are making a mistake. If you persist, the formula will be taken from its locked location, but the staff will have to sign it out, keep records on its distribution and forward the information to the Health Department. It may be easier to get marijuana.

Genius! What? You don't see the genius of first banning big gulps and then requiring breast milk? Here, let me explain the concept with the following labor-intensive food service meal idea.

The Snarky Meal

* One Micro Burger
* One Individually Wrapped French Fry
* One Shot Glass of Breast Milk
* Served in a Small Reusable Latex Bag

It is a very labor-intensive meal to create (per calorie served). This should put many Americans back to work. Still don't see it?

Dairy farming

This article is missing information about animals other than cows.

Indeed it is!

February 24, 2011
Breast milk ice cream goes on sale in Covent Garden

Mrs Hiley, who gets £15 for every 10 ounces of milk she donates to the company, said it was a great "recession beater".

Genius!



See Also:
Solutions to All of Our Problems!
Solutions to All of Our Problems! v.2
Solutions to All of Our Problems! v.3
Solutions to All of Our Problems! v.4
Solutions to All of Our Problems! v.5
Solutions to All of Our Problems! v.6
Solutions to All of Our Problems! v.7 (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Unemployment Rate in New York

More Evidence That the Party Ended in 2000

Click to enlarge.

As seen in the chart, we tried to start a new party in 2004. In hindsight, it failed miserably.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Not in Labor Force / Population

Job Openings per Unemployed

Click to enlarge.

Note that the slope of the red trend line is only half as steep as the blue trend line. We're hobbling along like a wounded animal. At the current rate, we will not make it back to 0.7 job openings per unemployed until the year 2021. No joke. Of course, that would end up making this economic expansion the longest in recorded history (by a wide margin). Good luck on that theory!

As seen in the chart, the timing of my blog's creation almost feels like cheating. If you are planning to start your own financial doomsday blog, then perhaps you could wait until we fall off the red trend line? Patience!

Then again, if one must panic then at least panic first. Since 2000, there's something to be said for that plan. Stick with what works. Sigh.

Update:

I added the point at which I turned permabearish to show that I really am a believer in the panicking first theory. It wasn't until 2007 that I went into "You've got to be kidding me. Seriously?" mode and opted to start a blog.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Job Openings per Unemployed

Apologies to the World

Click to enlarge.

This chart shows the number of barrels of oil that the world could theoretically purchase each month (in millions) using the proceeds of our U.S. trade deficit. For comparison purposes, we averaged 570 million barrels ourselves each month over the last year.

Sorry world. Our party ended in 2000. Perhaps we should have sent a memo. I hope you weren't counting on us for unlimited prosperity.

I also offer my country's sincerest condolences for providing you with that head fake in 2008/2009. Ben Bernanke plugged that hole the instant it was spotted. $39 oil will not be tolerated! We need high oil prices in order for our country to prosper! That's the theory anyway. I guess. You tell me and we'll both know.

And lastly, I want to assure you that we have not lost interest in filling our landfills with your cheap goods. Please continue to send them and we will continue to send you dollars in exchange. We've got $11 trillion looking for a new home. And when I say new home, I don't mean vacant home. We've already got plenty of those. In fact, they are clogging our school bus routes. Sigh.

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

40.3 Million Missing Jobs

Long-Term


Click to enlarge.

@#$%!


Click to enlarge.

@#$%!


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@#$%!

Short-Term


Click to enlarge.

@#$%!


Click to enlarge.

@#$%!


Click to enlarge.

@#$%!

I watched CNBC this morning. Just before the numbers came out, Mark Zandi claimed that employment growth was averaging about 150k per month for the past 2 years (which would have been June 2010 to June 2012 based on when he said it). This statistic was repeated more than once by those who were listening to him. Being the natural skeptic, I opted to double-check his numbers. This is what I saw.

2010-06-01: 130,021,000
2012-06-01: 133,088,000 (as originally reported in July)
Net Change: 3,067,000
Average Change per Month: 127,792

I could understand rounding it to 130,000 per month. It takes seriously rose-colored glasses with a 4x optical zoom to round it to 150,000 per month though. That said, I'm fairly sure that he has a pair. How else can one explain the following?

January 4, 2011
The Wisdom of Mark Zandi

As long as we make those adjustments within the next few years, Zandi says, we'll work our way back to a sustainable position in 5-7 years. - January 4, 2011

It's been over a year and a half. How are we doing?

"I caught the falling knife," Zandi said of his recent home purchase. - October 25, 2007

In hindsight, it would appear that his Vero Beach knife got roughly 50% cheaper over the next 4 years.

Vero Beach Zillow Home Value Index

Vero Beach Home Values - Interactive chart

And lastly, I would love to ask Mark Zandi the following question.

If this is the best job growth we can get during an economic expansion then what will it be during the next economic contraction?

Perhaps he would claim that the tide will never go out again. Wouldn't that be a hoot.

August 3, 2012
MaxedOutMama: Well, Dang

In short, I suspect the tide is going out and that there are some missing Speedos under the water.

See Also:
40.2 Million Missing Jobs

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm

Initial Claims Danger v.8

Click to enlarge.

Let's zoom in again.


Click to enlarge.



At some point initial claims will start to spike higher again.

I have no crystal ball that shows when that will happen. That said, I'd guess somewhere in the ballpark of June 2013.

I don't necessarily think this is the big one but it could be.

I am not feeling lucky when I look at these charts. I am actually just waiting for the next shoe to drop. As seen over the last decade or so, we seem to have an infinite supply of them. I just wish they weren't all made in China. Sigh.

See Also:
Initial Claims Danger v.7

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims

Fracaso de Tendencia Exponencial!

Here's the exponential trend failure of the day. Spanish style!


Click to enlarge.

It looks like Spain's party ended about the same time ours did. Shocking!

See Also:
Mish: Problems in Spain: Revenues Collapse, State Spends Nearly Twice as Much as Revenues Collected in First Half

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Passenger Car Registrations in Spain

Waste Not Want Not

July 2012
GMO: Welcome to Dystopia!

We are five years into a severe global food crisis that is very unlikely to go away. It will threaten poor countries with increased malnutrition and starvation and even collapse. Resource squabbles and waves of food-induced migration will threaten global stability and global growth. This threat is badly underestimated by almost everybody and all institutions with the possible exception of some military establishments.

Waste Not Want Not

The Waste Not Want Not poster from World War I was published by the Canada Food Board to encourage Canadian women to preserve perishable foods.

File:Waste not want not WWI poster.jpg

While we are on the topic of waste, here is a chart of real sewage and waste disposal construction spending per capita (June 2012 dollars).



While we are on the topic of construction spending, here is a chart of real religious construction spending per capita (June 2012 dollars).



July 5, 2012
Vatican reports worst deficit in years: $18.4 million

The effects of the euro zone debt crisis has reached into some of the holiest of halls, pushing the Vatican into one of its worst budget deficits in years.

Quotes about Religion

Religion: keeping the poor from killing the rich for 2000 years. - Bumper sticker

Oh oh.

This post inspired by a friend who sent me the link to the GMO article.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2