Thursday, August 2, 2012

Initial Claims Danger v.8

Click to enlarge.

Let's zoom in again.

Click to enlarge.

At some point initial claims will start to spike higher again.

I have no crystal ball that shows when that will happen. That said, I'd guess somewhere in the ballpark of June 2013.

I don't necessarily think this is the big one but it could be.

I am not feeling lucky when I look at these charts. I am actually just waiting for the next shoe to drop. As seen over the last decade or so, we seem to have an infinite supply of them. I just wish they weren't all made in China. Sigh.

See Also:
Initial Claims Danger v.7

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims


Who Struck John said...

Looks like this is as good as it gets, until the government bubble bursts and we start the next leg down on the lazy W.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Who Struck John,

For what it is worth, I am comfortable holding long-term TIPS and I-Bonds to maturity. In theory, at least I don't require a greater fool to sell them to. Heck, I even own some EE Savings bonds and for all I know I'll be holding them to maturity as well. I'm already holding some of them longer than I would have initially guessed.

If it is a government bond bubble that you are referring to, then heaven help everyone else. I do not intend to pop alone! ;)

My tax preparer said that should give me little comfort. I agreed that it didn't.

I think things will eventually get worse before they get even worse. Call me a fake optimist.

Who Struck John said...

I was referring to the government spending bubble, not a bond bubble. Can't keep spending 10% of GDP we don't have year after year. That will end, one way or another.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Who Struck John,

I hear that. All exponential trends eventually fail. Government spending will be no exception.

fried said...

Missed the chance to buy TIPS. but have i-bonds from 2001 on and now EE bonds as well (though I keep that quiet) and yes I have no intention of selling any. I watched algos gone wild yesterday, courtesy of Knight, and am glad for everything that I don't have in the market. Still have some stuff I would like to unload, but am waiting for another QE.
And yes, the data says we are enjoying an anemic recovery of sorts, in specific areas, but globally we are watching a slow grind down. and the fat lady in Germany hasn't even sung yet.