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I adjusted the U.S. season-average price based on monthly prices weighted by monthly marketings by the CPI in December of that year's season (June-May). Close enough for government work I'd guess.
It doesn't imply that the CPI is grossly out of whack but it does imply that food prices are indeed volatile. Is wheat a bargain right now? Or not? I'm probably the wrong person to ask but it looks somewhat fairly valued to me (in the grand scheme of things). In any event, I own more than my fair share of durum spaghetti. It certainly keeps well.
UPDATE 2-Hungry world to get record wheat, rice crops
"This ought to take the edge off commodity prices" and make it easier for poor people to buy enough food, said private consultant John Schnittker.
That's the best news I've heard in a long time. Perhaps the hoarding rice stories at Costco were a sign of the top. As you might be aware, I'm rather neutral on inflation in the short-term (as seen in the upper left corner of my blog). I continue to believe we're walking the tightrope between vast deflationary forces and vast inflationary forces.
I was inspired to do more digging when I noticed wheat futures coming down.
TradingCharts.com: Wheat (W, CBOT)
See Also:
Spaghetti Hoarders Unite!
United States Selected Crops
Source Data:
USDA: Historical Wheat Prices
BLS: Historical Consumer Price Index
2 comments:
Mark, Wheat is a weed it is also a lot cheaper to produce the corn, unfortunately corn is what is used to feed livestock not wheat. The weather where I am is causing a delay in corn planting and looking at Iowa it looks like they may be having the same problem. Hope you don't want any meat to go with that pasta. I buy whaet in 25# bags to make my own bread with cost less then a dollar a loaf but this man does not live on bread alone.
Anonymous,
My short-term optimism is quite limited as you can probably guess and you have inspired the title of my next post.
...but this man does not live on bread alone.
Let them eat steak!
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