Monday, May 19, 2008

Signs of Buffett's Rippling

UPI NewsTrack Business

DETROIT, May 19 (UPI) -- A collapsing market in large used vehicles is rippling through the U.S. automobile, industry observers said.

"Consumers will be less able to use their current used vehicles as currency," Nesvold said.


DEVELOPMENT: Food Crisis Rippling Out Like a "Tsunami"

At a forum on the world food crisis held at the United Nations Friday, civil society groups stressed that over 800 million people are now at risk of starvation, while 100 million have joined the ranks of the extremely poor in just the last few months and are now living on less than a dollar a day.

Sagging economy cutting into plastic surgery business

Vanity doesn't stand a chance against a bad economy.

The notion of having to postpone a nose reshaping or skipping eyelid surgery may not elicit a lot of empathy from consumers who are struggling financially after losing a job. Yet, plastic surgery is another business being hurt because consumers are worried about their shrinking discretionary incomes, which means it serves as another barometer of the rippling consequences of an economic downturn.


Layoffs rise 68 percent in April vs March: survey

Going forward, the fallout from record oil prices may result in more layoffs than the housing slump, John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

"The impact of high gasoline prices is rippling through the economy much faster than the housing collapse ever did or will," Challenger said in a statement.


Of course, high gasoline prices and the housing collapse might just be related (attempting to devalue our way to prosperity).

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is more regarding inflation expectations, but that post is kind of old, and you've said no comments are off-topic, so...

I saw today Kazakhstan, the 14th largest exporter has banned oil exports. I'd like to say they are just trying to jaw up the price of oil so they'll get more for selling it, but with it rising faster than I can count, I don't see much need to jaw-bone it up. Indeed, why risk jinxing it, just sit quietly and count your money coming in faster than you can count like some sort of Columbian drug lord.

Then again, maybe the Kazak's aren't all that smart if they are going to outright ban their exports. As the old saw goes: oil is largely worthless to the oil producers, they have to sell it to get money for the things they really need.

All this is a long way of leading up to, doesn't this sound indicative of inflation expecations getting at least a little bit uncontained? Wasn't it not that long ago that Pakistan banned rice exports? At least rice has value for the entire local population.

Stagflationary Mark said...

AllanF,

All this is a long way of leading up to, doesn't this sound indicative of inflation expecations getting at least a little bit uncontained?

In my opinion, yes. Inflation expectations are about as contained as the subprime fiasco was.

Hoarding begets more hoarding. Speaking of Pakistan...

Pakistan offers rewards for tips on wheat hoarding
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Agflation/idUSISL27965520080519

He did not say what rewards informers would get.

I'm going to go way out on the limb here and assume the informers won't be paid in wheat.

Anonymous said...

OK, I did a little follow-up. The export controls apply to refined product, not crude.

This is not as stupefying. Ill-investment in these oil-exporter kleptocracies is an old story.

Now if they were really stopping export of crude, that I think would be so non-sensical as to suggest some sort of top.

All in all, I don't think it changes the point that this story is indicative of inflation expectations not being contained.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Thanks for the update.

By the way, I cringe every time I see the word "contained" these days.

Anonymous said...

Oh, but home sales are up in my neck of the woods so EVERYTHING is going to be OK now http://www.venturacountystar.com/news/2008/may/20/home-sales-are-up-in-april/

The article doesn't say it, but I read elsewhere of "clear signs" that current sales show that a bottom is "in" in housing. I suspect bottom feeders are starting to show up but I doubt that's a good sign.

Stagflationary Mark said...

kwark,

There are a lot of amusing quotes in that link.

This April was much better than last, which she said was "dead and stagnant."

Who needs H.P. Lovecraft when you can just read the news?

"There is a blue-light special taking effect," he said.

The jury is still out. It might return a blue-pill verdict instead. Who knows?

"It's not that big a deal, but in a market like this, you take what you can get," Watkins said.

Hey, that's exactly how I feel on my savings and TIPS yields these days.