Friday, September 25, 2009

Consumer Confidence Up (Musical Tribute)

U.S. Michigan Sentiment Index Rose to 73.5 This Month (Update1)

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers rose this month to the highest level since January 2008 as the pace of job losses slowed and the economy started to pull out of the worst recession since the Great Depression.



I can't speak for the economy, but I know real prosperity when I see it. It's in the video!

6 comments:

mab said...

Stag,

Funny. That bird has better rhythm than I do. It also dances remarkably similar to the street dancers in the Ray Charles scene of the Blues Brothers movie.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30w3zsfakQE

Do the twist. Do the Fly. Do the swim. Do the Bird!

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"Funny. That bird has better rhythm than I do."

There are a lot of things birds can do better than us. For example, they've never launched a LAND war in Asia. Hahaha!

Bird Intelligence

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_intelligence

"A study on the Little Green Bee-eater suggests that these birds may be able to see from the point of view of a predator. Such an ability to see from the point of view of another individual had previously been attributed only to the great apes. Such abilities form the basis for empathy."

As such, no bird to the best of my knowledge has ever invested in a ponzi scheme. ;)

EconomicDisconnect said...

Mark,
My mom had a bird lie that one when she lived in California. It would not dance to music, but if you whistled it would start juking and jiving all over the place. Those things are hilarious! Any music requests for Friday night?

P.S,
after your thoughful missives on gold, I have the latest positions stops set at $975 (closed $990 today) so I should be protected should the bubble burst next week.

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

We'd all be far better off if gold was the asset that is in a bubble. I cringe at the thought it isn't. Once again, I only lean that way. I could be wrong of course.

That said, I'll offer you yet another grand conspiracy theory.

I'm not a fan of preset stops. It requires me to trust that someone doesn't use that information against me.

For example, let's say someone had access to everyone's stops. It wouldn't be all that hard to figure out how to abuse it.

Oh look. Everyone has set a $975 stop on gold. Let's take her down to $974, watch it crash, then buy it back at $900.

When I buy something, I only buy with the intention of holding it forever. If I don't feel that I can do that then I don't buy it at all.

I also have another rule that helps me take profits. Once I have bought something I continually ask myself this.

Would I buy it right now at today's prices? If my answer is no, then I'm likely to hold it anyway (to avoid a taxable event). If my answer is "hell no" though, then I must sell it. I put this rule in place because I once held onto a high flying stock solely because of tax reasons. I wanted to defer those capital gains. Big mistake.

Right or wrong, when gold was up 50% for me, it reached the "hell no" criteria.

That said, I have no crystal ball. I wouldn't dream of shorting gold even If I knew for sure it was in a bubble. There's just no telling what other investors will do. Unlike many investments, gold really is only worth what other people will pay for it. I don't want to rely on those other people.

When I buy TIPS, I can decide what I think they are worth and simply hold them until maturity. I do not require anyone else's input. That very much appeals to me. I could be wrong when I value them of course. But at least then I'd have no one to blame but myself.

Hey, just more thoughts.

Once again, if I was SURE that gold was in a bubble I'd short the heck out of it. Some are. I'm NOT that sure.

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_P/threadview?m=tm&bn=77973&tid=1529&mid=1529&tof=2&frt=2

It's a double short fund aiming at gold. Scary.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Mark,
I work all day and our company has an insane firewall that keeps me from email and any online banking ( and really any site at all!) so I have to use stops in case of a serious dislocation event.

Could be a fun night, my verification word is "hempo"

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

"I work all day and our company has an insane firewall that keeps me from email and any online banking ( and really any site at all!) so I have to use stops in case of a serious dislocation event."

Aha! That makes perfect sense. When I worked at my last job my employer did not have an insane firewall (and should have!). That said, my boss couldn't even get people to stop playing computer games (that didn't even require an internet connection). She came to me one day and asked what I thought could be done. I said that she could simply clamp down and say no game playing during work hours. Her response? But I play games during lunch!! Needless to say, nothing was ever done about it.

Forehead meet desk! *thwack*