Thursday, February 25, 2010

The Pipe Dreams of Exponential Growth



April 10, 2008
Letter: Pipe dreams

With almost every problem, one wants to look at what represents some kind of rising or declining exponential growth curve.



See Also:
FAIL Blog
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks

19 comments:

G.H. said...

"Letter: Pipe dreams"

Man, that is just one whacked out viewpoint.

IMO, it should be disclaimed with something to the effect this BS has absolutely nothing to do with the ideas, subject matter, subconscious, or in any ways otherwise of this blog.

JMHO...

Stagflationary Mark said...

G.H.,

It's radical. Some is BS. However, consider...

I've never done drugs and only recently even drank alcohol, but I do think prison population growth and "the land of the free" don't seem all that compatible. Something's clearly not working.

I've posted prison data in the past and called it our new growth industry. The fact that we actually debated whether waterboarding is considered torture or not also concerns me. The "Patriot Act" concerns me. I wish more were concerned every time we lose any freedom, because we seldom if ever get it back.

G.H. said...

Stag, consider the initial appeal:

"Canada spends more than twice as much money per person in the Canadian prisons as the USA.

Thus, American prisons are more than twice as bad.
"


Who are we supposed to be sympathetic to, the prisoners, or the People who pony up for them?

IMO, Canada needs to bring their per prisoner $$ in line with "twice as bad" if in fact that is market reality.

But based on this article, with absolutely no links to factual evidence, who knows?

Stagflationary Mark said...

G.H.,

It's mostly just an opinion no doubt, much like yours or mine.

dearieme said...

"I wish more were concerned every time we lose any freedom, because we seldom if ever get it back." Didn't President Harding return quite a bit of the freedom that had been filched by the loathsome Wilson? See - it happens about once every two hundred years.

mab said...

Legalized marihuana runs counter to exponential growth (FIRE eCONomy) and a military industrial complex state.

Marihhuana was first partially criminalized in the U.S. in 1937. Remember, 1937 was a period when exponential growth had failed and the world was heading towards war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marihuana_Tax_Act_of_1937

Under presidents Johnson and Nixon, between 1967 and 1970, marihuana became completely illegal, despite its increased usage and growing popularity. Again, in the late 1960s, economic growth was waning, the Vietnam war was accelerating and the military industrial complex was being viewed in an increasingly skeptical manner by the U.S. public.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act

Coincidences? Perhaps. But I'm hoarding 2 ply tinfoil nonetheless! ;)

watchtower said...

^^^

Classic Mab!

Stagflationary Mark said...

dearieme,

You do make a good point. Perhaps I was a bit harsh regarding the long-term freedom trend. Perhaps there is hope.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

Prohibition was removed during The Great Depression. Perhaps "they" were getting nervous!

Pass me a 2-ply hat! ;)

mab said...

Stag,

Alcohol makes many people unruly. Ganja mellows pretty much everyone.

The FIRE eCONomy and the military industrial complex push booze, but "they" can't tolerate weed. A zoned out populace just can't get behind a war or the trumped up need to get credit (aka debt) flowing.

It's amazing how "they" have manipulated the laws and sheeple for decades. I'm telling you, RFID's for sheeple are in the offing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rfid#Animal_identification

Think about it. They've even made earings gender neutral so that when the time comes, there will be even less resistance.

Remember, when it come to tinfoil hats, shiney side out for both plys!

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

Remember, when it come to tinfoil hats, shiney side out for both plys!

LOL! :)

watchtower said...

This is kind of unsettling:

http://tinyurl.com/y8k8za8

Stagflationary Mark said...

watchtower,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Andromeda_Strain

EconomicDisconnect said...

Hello! I just got electricity back after being out since Thursday night! Now I am convinced I will never survive and all out collapse, I NEED power!!!

Trying to catch up,
G.H. from previous thread,
stops are a traders best friend. I also only play macro long term trades but I was just noting the one week beacuse we had discussed it.

Drugs and alcohol? I did go to college so a big Yuppers to both. No drugs anymore, and I don't drink anymore, of course I don't drink any less! HA! Pot should be legalized and taxed, just my 2 cents.

"Better Off Dead"; a film of many classic scenes and lines like:
"It's Christmas; I could be at home drinking this killer egg nogg my brother makes with lighter fluid!"

John Cusak in "High Fidelity" with Jack Black is also chock full of goodies.

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

On the one hand, I can clean a fish and/or a weapon if push comes to shove. I've done both plenty of times in my life.

On the other hand, if I can't clean myself then I'm fairly miserable (bath or a shower). That's the worst part of a power outage to me.

At 10 cents per kilowatt-hour, we pretty much take power for granted in this country. Let's hope we always can!

January 2010 Issue: The Costs of Taking Energy for Granted

http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=227:energyforgranted&catid=101:fromtheeditor&Itemid=355

Energy and its availability cannot be taken for granted even in the best of times. This issue of the Journal of Energy Security reflects this reality on a multitude of fronts. We often take for granted those things best known to us. In the energy sphere this includes the relationship of the United States with Mexico as its third largest supplier of oil. The ability of Mexico to deliver ever increasing volumes of this liquid hydrocarbon to the US market is being thrown into jeopardy due to a variety of factors: geologic exhaustion, technical inefficiencies, managerial ineptness, and corruption which is often the bane of resource-rich nations.

EconomicDisconnect said...

Mark,
you are right indeed. I am convinced that when oil runs out, say on a tuesday, on thursday they will unveil fusion power and we all are saved except for all the money we spent on oil!!

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

A Future for Fusion?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704107204575039330758722368.html

Supporters say it isn't a question of if, but when

Thursday!! Now if we could just figure out which one. :)

Anonymous said...

Mark - I like the first graph, but can't puzzle out the rest of the post....

-jus me

Stagflationary Mark said...

jus me,

It was sort of an exponential growth theme. Nothing more.

The video was just my attempt to show the exponential growth of paperboys. "Better Off Dead" is also a favorite of mine.