Wednesday, February 3, 2010

William Pesek Spots the Bubble Elephant in the Room

Biggest Bubble in History Is Growing Every Day: William Pesek

The reserve bubble is actually an Asia-wide phenomenon. And we should stop viewing this monetary arms race as a source of strength. Here are three reasons why it’s fast becoming a bigger liability than policy makers say publicly.

One, it’s a massive and growing pyramid scheme. The issue has reached new levels of absurdity with traders buzzing about crisis-plagued Greece seeking a Chinese bailout. After all, if economies were for sale, China could use the $453 billion of reserves it amassed last year to buy Greece and Vietnam and have enough left over for Mongolia.


Oh crap. That's only one of the three reasons. I now remember why I only lean towards deflation short-term while simultaneously hoarding toilet paper.

Think about how Dubai shook the global economy, or how the mere hint that Chinese growth may dip below 8 percent inspires panic. These disappointments pale in comparison with the turbulence that may come from Asia’s biggest bubble popping.

As usual, he makes a good point. This global economy is seriously messed up and grows more unstable by the year.

On a lighter note, I feel better about my stagflationary name long-term. Sigh.

2 comments:

Who Struck John said...

First they have to fall off the cliff, then they can stagnate at the bottom.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Who Struck John,

That would certainly match my expectations. It wouldn't be an ideal situation for bottom feeders.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bottom_feeder

Other bottom feeders may feed on other bottom feeders, and thus are carnivores.

Goldman Sachs might do well though. I think they are carnivores.

Goldman: January Chinese Loan Growth 'Excessive', Tightening Is Too Little Too Late

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-chinas-excessive-credit-growth-keeps-surging-2010-2