Monday, August 16, 2010

The Sarcasm Report v.57

Explaining Gold’s Appeal in a Deflationary Environment

Interest earned on 90-day Treasury bills below the inflation rate is a signal for governments to try to stop deflation and reflate the economy. When this happens, gold becomes attractive. We are in such an environment now.

That's really good to know. So if interest earned on 90-day Treasury bills is 10% but the inflation rate is 12% then that will be a signal for governments to try to stop deflation and reflate the economy. No wonder the 1970s were so awesome for gold. The government spent nearly the entire decade successfully fighting deflation. Who knew?

The twin engines of negative real interest rates and government deficits tend to make gold a very attractive investment. Recent research supports our historical findings on what drives gold.

So deflationary environments are known for their negative real interest rates? I mistakenly thought that was a stagflationary environment. I stand corrected!

The Federal Reserve’s main interest rate is near zero and inflation is a little over 1 percent, so we now find ourselves in a negative real interest rate situation.

So if inflation is a little over 1 percent, then this would still count as a deflationary environment? It's like everything I ever thought I knew was wrong.

I'm almost convinced. I'm earning a little over 1 percent in my ING Direct savings account and inflation is a little over 1 percent. I clearly wouldn't want to lose too much of my purchasing power by continuing to do that. Perhaps I should move money into something that's risen 400% over the last decade just to be completely safe. Hey, maybe I can even borrow money at these incredibly low interest rates and leverage up my bet. It sounds like a sure thing.

I still need to know why gold's price fell in late 2008 as oil crashed in a spectacular way and housing crumbled though. That part is still confusing to me. If that wasn't a deflationary environment, then what was it?


As I look to his charts for more insight, I see that the low gold prices of the 1990s eventually led to cuts in exploration, which led to falling production, which led to higher gold prices. That will be especially good to know if I ever find myself back in the 1990s again.

I thank CEO Frank Holmes for his unbiased gold insights and hope that his World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) and his Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) do well for both him and his company.


I now understand why investors love gold in inflationary environments, deflationary environments, and at any price. It all makes sense now.

10 comments:

mab said...

Stag,

PreCONceived CONclusions demand CONtorted reasoning.

The never ending demand for "expert" advice amazes me. I guess anything is better than thinking for yourself.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

If he would have argued that gold can do well in mildly stagflationary environments known for their mildly negative real interest rates then I would have had far less to heckle. Of course, that would have done little to support his deflationary premise.

Still waiting for a valid reason not to hold cash if we were to slide into an ongoing deflationary environment.

mab said...

Stag,

Gold has already done far better than it should have. The anticipated inflation never arrived. In fact, anti-inflation arrived instead with a vengeance. Fittingly, the gold bugs CONjure up some CONtorted reasoning about how gold does well during deflation.

Absent sky high inflation or a financial collapse, gold looks like a loser from here to me. But it could easily double before reality sets in.

It's NOT more money, it's more debt! Why can't they understand this?

As the "all knowing" markets grasp reality, asset prices (including gold) will adjust accordingly. Fed or no Fed.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

This was a popular trading strategy for the die hard inflationists too.

TBT and TIP

Go ultra short long-term treasuries while simultaneously going long the inflation protected treasuries.

Just one problem. I didn't buy TIP because I KNEW inflation was coming. I bought it because I felt it could do a decent job protecting my purchasing power, especially if interest rates kept falling. I had no desire to place a LEVERAGED bet in the OTHER direction though!!! In hindsight, good thing!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Here's yet another reason I like CNBC's Rick Santelli.

Joe Kernan teased him that sarcasm was the domain of losers. Rick said that a government official probably thought that up. Rick loves sarcasm! Hahaha!

As a side note, I like Joe and the other early morning commentators too. A good sense of humor goes a long way for me. Doesn't mean I take much on face value though.

I can't stand Cramer though. I think my blood pressure rises 5 points per minute. I'd rather be tortured with never ending Monex commercials over that! And that's saying something, lol.

mab said...

Stag,

Joe Kernan teased him that sarcasm was the domain of losers.

Many years ago, my mom commented on my sarcasm. She said something to the effect that sarcasm shows a sense of humor and intelligence. Initially, I enjoyed the "compliment". It was later that I wondered if she was being sarcastic. As you can imagine, I'm still wondering. I haven't been the same since, lol.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

For all I know you are doing exactly what your mother did! To me! Hahaha!!

I'm somewhere between feeling complimented and deeply insulted, depending on your current level of sarcasm, lol.

Just to play it *safe*, I am *totally* rolling my eyes right now as a defense! Count on it! It's a *sure thing*!! ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...

Quote of the day...

Kyle Bass: Given My Outlook On The World, I Don't Know How You Can Be Long Stocks

He makes a better deflationary case for gold by the way. I watched him speak on CNBC. He thinks Japan is past the tipping point.

Stagflationary Mark said...

One more thought. I was very impressed by what he had to say in response to their questions. If he's wrong, it won't be because he's dumb.

His best response, and I paraphrase...

Have any problems ever gotten smaller by kicking the can down the road?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Satellites Capture Public Images to Sell as Macro Market Data

Digital Globe is a company which relies on an extraterrestrial advantage to gather its data. The company uses satellites to take pictures of busy ports and parking lots, which can later be analyzed into real market information.  And other companies are willing to shell out big bucks for information Digital Globe has harvested.

Meanwhile... the little guy is being trained to use stale rear view mirror technical analysis based day trading strategies. Everybody wins!

Oops. More sarcasm. Sorry.