Here's the evolution of the cartoon stimulus physics predictions and where we are now. The running gag continues!
In hindsight, I'm especially pleased that the cartoon physics model originally predicted a peak of 11,000 back in February. Who knew?
February 8, 2010
Stimulus was applied. Stocks rose into the air. Many seem convinced that stocks will keep going up. Who knows?
Please don't read too much into this. Almost anything can happen in a world filled with cartoon stimulus and/or cartoon physics.
March 25, 2010
May 14, 2010
May 24, 2010
June 24, 2010
June 25, 2010
The DJIA is trading at roughly the same level that it was trading at when I turned bearish in 2004. That was my primary fear in 2004. It would simply stagnate. That's my primary fear now.
My long-term prediction is therefore just about as simplistic as simplistic could be. Hello stagnation. It's just a gut call. I don't have much supporting evidence to back it up. Just add one part deflation to one part stagflation and that's what you get though.
August 22, 2010
Lookin' good! Sigh.
This is considered to be Greenspan's Age of Turbulence. Anything can happen next. He should know. He helped get us here!
August 1, 2010
Asia Day Ahead: Greenspan Says Decline in Home Prices May Spur Recession
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the slowing economic recovery in the U.S. feels like a “quasi- recession” and the economy might contract again if home prices decline.
Really? A drop in home prices can cause the economy to contract? Who would have guessed? Perhaps I'll remain deflationary for a while longer then.
Trend Line Disclaimer
Yahoo: Historical Prices for Dow Jones Industrial Average
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