Sunday, December 26, 2010

The Rise in Elder Bankruptcy Filings

The Rise in Elder Bankruptcy Filings and Failure of U.S. Bankruptcy Law (pdf)

These findings further support the concern that the swelling ranks of elder Americans filing bankruptcy are simply running out of money. And when they do, the picture it is not pretty. For example, 9.7% report having gone without food while struggling before bankruptcy, 31.2% being late on rent or mortgage, 31.2% going without required medication (47.1% for the subset who filed for “medical reasons”), and 21.2% skipping doctors’ appointments (30.6% for the subset who filed for “medical reasons”).81 Thus, one of the most sobering findings of the CBP data may be this stark fact that although all bankrupt debtors are in tough financial straits, the elder filers are in really tough straits – an ominous portent of what may await the baby boomers.82 Whether this is related to the escalating costs of health care is certainly a possibility,83 just as is the prospect that the abolition of the defined-benefit pension plan is playing a role.84 It may also simply be the “financial shock” of retirement itself that elder Americans are ill-suited to face.85 (Recent data found credit counseling applicants citing “retirement” as a cause of financial distress among 5.4% of respondents; given only 9.4% of respondents categorized themselves as retired, this suggests that retirement has required pre-bankruptcy credit counseling for more than half of retirees.)86 Further exploration of these conjectures must await future study. The relevant observation for now is that credit cards may be a short-term (and ultimately unsuccessful) financing solution for the elder debtors to a structural financial deficit.87 If Americans cannot live out their senior years, even on Medicare, on their current incomes without relying on credit cards and then going bankrupt, we may be seeing early evidence of a deep societal problem of overindebtedness.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Adjusting an interest rate for inflation does not seem to make sense. It is a percentage and might very well vary depending on inflation.

mab said...

we may be seeing early evidence of a deep societal problem of overindebtedness.

Getting credit flowing = Pushing CONsumption debt as a business model.

Thanks to the Fed, pushing debt became the most financially rewarding business in our eCONomy.

The system is founded on fraud and usury.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Anonymous,

"Adjusting an interest rate for inflation does not seem to make sense. It is a percentage and might very well vary depending on inflation."

Is this in response to my previous post discussing the inflation adjusted Fed Funds rate?

If the Fed Funds rate is 0% and inflation is running at a 1% rate then the inflation adjusted Fed Funds rate is -1%.

If the Fed Funds rate is 10% and inflation is running at an 11% rate then the inflation adjusted Fed Funds rate is also -1%.

Adjusting the Fed Funds rate for inflation is just about the only way it does make sense. It lets us know if the Fed wants more inflation or whether it does not.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"Thanks to the Fed, pushing debt became the most financially rewarding business in our eCONomy."

There's no business like debt business like no business we know

Everything about it was quintupling, everything mall traffic would allow

No down meant we could buy "sure thing" condos as they were stealing our saved up dough

There's no people like debt people, they smile when cash is low

And since we had banks that were too big to fold, taxpayers were left out in the cold

The Fed wouldn't change it for the price of gold, let's go on with the woe

Anonymous said...

Stagflationary Mark,

Yes, I was commenting on previous post when I referenced inflation adjustment on the Fed Funds rate. I now see that I hit wrong comment link.

Still not sure I get the point of comparing inflation adjusted interest rates to commodity prices.

In the early eighties you had high interest rates and high inflation. This make sense as one would tend to think high commodity prices would lead to higher prices on goods using those commodities.

Now we have low interest rates and low inflation. Yes the inflation interest rates are low but why aren't higher commodity prices driving up retail prices and inflation?

Why would low inflation adjusted interest rates lead to high commodity prices?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Anonymous,

"Why would low inflation adjusted interest rates lead to high commodity prices?"

If inflation is averaging 5% per year and interest rates are 7%, then you watch your purchasing power (before taxes) rise 2% per year by simply earning that interest. You gain 7% but lose 5% to inflation. You are ahead of the game. You have no need to hoard hard assets.

On the other hand, if inflation is averaging 5% per year and interest rates are just 3%, then you will watch your purchasing power lose 2% per year. You gain 3% but lose 5% to inflation. You are falling behind. You are better off just hoarding toilet paper than saving that money and earning that interest.

So it isn't the level of interest rates that is important. What's important is the level of interest rates compared to the inflation rate, especially once taxes are factored in.

Right now the inflation rate is fairly low and so are the interest rates.

One place to see "inflation adjusted interest rates" is to look at the "Inflation Indexed Treasury" market. You can see the 5-Year, 10-Year, 20-Year, and 30-Year inflation adjusted rates in the following link (in the middle section).

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us/