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Andy Xie: Either America Or China Will Crash In 2011
America will continue to pump the financial system with liquidity via tax cuts and quantitative easing. China will keep the yuan cheap and avoid clamping down on inflation.
The tense equilibrium can't last for long, as either sovereign debt or inflation gets too heavy to bear. Whoever lasts longer, wins.
Casey At Bat
"Fraud!" cried the maddened thousands, and echo answered "Fraud!"
But one scornful look from Casey and the audience was awed.
They saw his face grow stern and cold, they saw his muscles strain,
And they knew that Casey wouldn't let that ball go by again.
Rumor has it that Casey moved to Singapore.
In December 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 16 million USD and moved to Singapore. Rogers claimed that he moved because now is a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets.
Note December 2007 in the chart below.
China Shanghai Composite Index
It truly was a ground-breaking time for investment potential in Asian markets. Well, something broke anyway.
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Year-over-year in October
-
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Serious delinquencies hit
17-month high while foreclosure activity remains historically muted
• At 3.45% ...
3 hours ago
4 comments:
I will have to work on a year ahead post but I have to say no one will blow up in 2011; gold and silver will be about where they are now, so wil the stock market, etc. What do we call the slow motion nothing move????
GYSC,
I'd take that bet.
You are predicting calm.
I'll predict more storm.
If nothing else, we'll have all the bases covered. ;)
I think this could be the year Chanos turns the corner on his China "treadmill to hell" bet.
I also think the current low in the VIX is describing the eye of a hurricane, not an end to the storm.
It's a tough call on the timing though. Andy Xie first thought 2012 would be the year. He's moved that prediction forward a bit.
May 5, 2010
Some Good News for China's Investors
Xie compared the current Chinese housing market to the Japanese housing market of the 1980s and 1990s and predicts China's stock and real estate markets will decline slightly in the fourth quarter of this year, with a large decline coming in 2012.
He's been calling this whole economic crisis very well since before it officially began. I have no great desire to bet against him.
Here's a reminder.
October 9, 2008
The Thoughts of Andy Xie
From 2005:
Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie believes a global housing crash is a serious possibility.
From 2007:
"I think it's going to be bust very soon," Xie said, adding that a combination of excess liquidity, rising inflation and rich valuations would result in a global crash soon.
"People will be surprised. When the end comes, it's going to be pretty bad," Xie added.
From 2008:
Regardless of who wins, it will be extremely difficult to turn the economy around.
Check. Check. Check.
I did see a lot of empty buildings in China even as factories struggled with rising costs and customers who won't accept any price increases.
My question...if the housing market busts, does it lead to deflation in China, and thus more pressure on the Yuan to appreciate?
Because if that happens, its lose/lose for China.
Anonymous,
"Because if that happens, its lose/lose for China."
All I can say is that Chanos believes China is on the treadmill to hell. That pretty much implies that he thinks it is lose/lose for China. All that remains is the timing.
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