Posts
August 18, 2011
Is it time to panic? Not yet
After a brief respite, stocks are plunging again. We're retesting the lows, but the bottom hasn't fallen out.
Do not panic unless the bottom falls out.
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Year-over-year in October
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From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Serious delinquencies hit
17-month high while foreclosure activity remains historically muted
• At 3.45% ...
3 hours ago
20 comments:
As I wrote this, NYSE down volume stood at 96% of total volume, a small improvement from the 99% down day on Aug. 8. Also, there were 2,729 net declining issues on the NYSE, an improvement from the 3,067 net decliners seen on Aug. 8.
Now THAT is some real encouragement.
JzB
Jazzbumpa,
Yes, very encouraging. I nearly shut my blog down today based on that bright tidbit of sunshine, lol. Sigh.
feels like Aug 2008 a bit
when someone asked me 6/2008 where I thought the S&P was going, I said 1050 by the end of the year.
I knew our goose was cooked then but had expected a more orderly exit from the market not the bumrush that 2H08 turned out to be.
I guess TBTF's share of the S&P 500 was the difference in 2008.
TBTF is still USCWAP AFAICT.
1050 was the general price level in 2010 until the market started getting rotation into it.
That play looks played.
Is "don't panic unless the bottom falls out" sort of like "don't lock the barn door until after the horse has escaped"?
Haha!
Don't they know, if you're going to panic, panic early?
Troy,
I'm content enjoying the ride up and down through the 1200 level until prosperity is fully restored. I'm not easily bored, lol. Sigh.
Who Struck John,
Barn or clown car?
I rode out the dotcom crash and then exited in 2004.
Clowns are STILL coming out. How did we all fit in there!!
CP,
I miss the good old days.
Ben Stein really knew how to panic!
Personally, I'm a big fan of the gold to Sears price ratio.
It screams stupidity no matter which way it moves. Very fitting in the new (e)CONomy.
mab,
I just calculated a Mark's weight to Sears price ratio.
Damn! It's gone parabolic! I'm a bubble!!
For the love of all that's holy, someone, somewhere, buy something at Sears!! ;)
Mark,
Damn! It's gone parabolic! I'm a bubble!!
Nice!
I'm a bear on Sears, so I expect lots of Sears ratio bubbles. Nothing is ever certain though.
When I was a kid we used to make fun of the chain store "Two Guys". Strangely, "Two Guys" morphed into Vornado, an uber successful REIT. It wasn't a miracle turn-around story though - at least one bankruptcy set the stage if memory serves.
mab,
It's been over 3 years since we were both heckled for heckling Sears. Where does the time go?
Hey all, sounds like things are well with folks.
As for where the time goes, as my first manager used to say, "you can't make time, you can only waste it." -- Hmmm, I wonder if he's had his first heart attack by now, certainly he's lost all his hair.
Sorry to get back to you so much later; I think gold will continue to increase in value vs aluminum as long as central banks continue to use fiat money as toilet paper. If they stop, gold will fall so hard it will be epic. If we get a real panic like in 2009, gold will get destroyed. I dont see either as likley in the near future. You know we go back and forth, no hard feelings meant.
portland_allan,
I am working diligently on time wasting mastery. Hahaha! :)
P.S. No heart attacks so far. ;)
GYSC,
I cannot see the catalyst for a massive drop in gold either for what it is worth, but that said I'm not sure I would have seen it in the early 1980s either (at the time).
I intend to do a short pro-gold post today to balance out my gold heretic ways, for what that is worth. Just a few things I've been thinking about.
And by short pro-gold post, I meant a tiny post. It ended up being a long pro-gold post, lol. ;)
Ops. I think you know this, but portland_allan is me. Sometimes I forget I'm logged into the matrix on another tab.
AllanF,
I suspected it was you but it is nice to have confirmation. :)
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