Saturday, February 18, 2012

Inflation Mood

Click to enlarge.

Well, we made it through the Christmas season without a deflationary event (barely).

I'm therefore changing my short-term inflation mood (as seen in the upper left hand corner of my blog) to match my long-term one (between 2% and 3% per year?). I expect it to stay there until we start approaching the Christmas season again.

Please note that in a perfect world the Christmas season shouldn't matter. This is seasonally adjusted data. It should therefore be factored in already. Unfortunately, we don't live in a perfect world. I expect the next Christmas season to be more deflationary than expected on a seasonally adjusted basis, just as this one was.

I offer this for entertainment purposes more than anything. I don't invest based on the short-term. I continue to hold inflation protected TIPS and I-Bonds for the long-term.

Just opinions. Your inflation mood results may vary.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: CPI


Troy said...

Inflation in gas, food, health care, rents.

Deflation in everything else.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Which will of course do wonders for this country's many shopping malls and restaurants. Sigh.