Inflation Mood

Click to enlarge.

Well, we made it through the Christmas season without a deflationary event (barely).

I'm therefore changing my short-term inflation mood (as seen in the upper left hand corner of my blog) to match my long-term one (between 2% and 3% per year?). I expect it to stay there until we start approaching the Christmas season again.

Please note that in a perfect world the Christmas season shouldn't matter. This is seasonally adjusted data. It should therefore be factored in already. Unfortunately, we don't live in a perfect world. I expect the next Christmas season to be more deflationary than expected on a seasonally adjusted basis, just as this one was.

I offer this for entertainment purposes more than anything. I don't invest based on the short-term. I continue to hold inflation protected TIPS and I-Bonds for the long-term.

Just opinions. Your inflation mood results may vary.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: CPI