Wednesday, May 30, 2012

St. Louis Fed: "This Time, It's Different"

May 18, 2012
The Relationships Among Changes in GDP, Employment, and Unemployment: This Time, It’s Different

During the recent recession, the observed decrease in GDP corresponded to a higher increase in the unemployment rate than Okun’s law would predict.


Our analysis suggests that in recent years there have been changes in the relationship between (i) GDP growth and changes in the unemployment rate and (ii) changes in the employment-to-population ratio and changes in the unemployment rate. These changes cast doubt on using these relationships to predict future unemployment.

Welcome to the party, pal.

March 21, 2012
The 5 Charts I Shared with My Tax Preparer


Troy said...

This time, it's 2002.

Well, except the baby boom is 10 years closer to retirement (if not actually enjoying it now), we hadn't blown $1.3T of borrowed money on the wars yet, nor had we collectively juiced our leverage up 40%:

oh, and oil was still under $30:

I am actively planning on bugging out again this decade. No doomstead island estate in the middle of the Puget Sound, I'm going back to Japan, tho Canada also has some attraction (but I fear that's going to be a 'crowded trade').

Stagflationary Mark said...


I am actively planning on bugging out again this decade.

I am just planning to bug out my eyes once the next recession hits (whenever that is). D'oh!