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It's déjà vu all over again. - Yogi Berra
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Corporate Profits / Wages
Schedule for Week of November 24, 2024
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The key reports this week include the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP and October
New Home Sales.
Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller and FHFA h...
52 minutes ago
6 comments:
Just so we're clear...
The trend in black goes only with the black data. The same goes for all the other colors.
The red trend line is actually extrapolated out to 2015. Keep in mind that it cannot accurately predict the future, but hindsight may show that it was a reasonable estimate. Who knows?
The polynomial trend lines are 2nd order, which would be the physics of a baseball that's been hit into the air if one neglects air friction.
I would argue that the bat in this case is unprecedented and unsustainable monetary and fiscal stimulus (borrowing from the future to keep things elevated today). As in baseball, good luck on the ball staying elevated permanently.
I remain incredibly bearish on our long-term future. Sigh.
Those who trust the "E" in the average "P/E" must sleep very well at night (think Jeremy Siegel).
I guess I'm just a heck of a lot more cynical.
If history is any guide, that % must come way down before we could enter the next recession. Yet, it feels as if we're in one now.
1.) It's different this time,
2.) We live in interesting times,
3.) In Fed we trust.
I am trying to understand how profits got so out of line with wages.
Just some off the cuff guesses:
1) death of private unions and now public unions
2) massive unemployment and underemployment
3) chinese labor is cheap
4) robots don't get wages
All of these things work against Obama's cry for creating middle class jobs. Oh, and Obamacare is creating a new wave of uninsured part time workers.
Fritz_O,
We live in interesting times! ;)
Mr Slippery,
5) These men mean businesses!
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