I live in the USA and I am concerned about the future. I created this blog to share my thoughts on the economy and anything else that might catch my attention.
Predicting Gold Prices with SARIMAX
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*Not investment advice.*
I collected 54 years of gold price data from the St. Louis Fed starting
9/30/71 (end of the US federal government fiscal year afte...
NVIDIA Revisited
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On August 26, 2023, 5 days before it a new closing hi at 493.55, I wrote a
critical post about NVDA - the stock, not the company. After that, the
stoc...
Stay away from popular tech stocks, part II
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Last August, I wrote a blog post arguing that largest technology and
internet companies -- Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft -- would
never grow i...
So, Where Have I Been?
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Well, of course, I have been where I am!
It's been a good few years away from this blog. I do miss some folks
terrible, and I sort of miss things financial...
Those Whom The Gods Wish To Destroy ...
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they first make mad. Still true!!!
*(Note: this post, and probably several others to follow, are actually
about the US dollar and relative currency trends....
I chose to make the data semi-annual to smooth it out some. That last data point shows the growth from the first half of 2012 to the first half of 2013 (or lack thereof, sigh).
No worries! Real income growth will bounce bounce back any day now. Just like real yields.
How do I know? Wrong-way Siegel of course.
The bounce back is going to be glorious for Sears and Kmart! Eddie Lampert may be early, but he's never wrong. He's a genius for crying out loud. Even Cramer says so.
I don't care what happens to Sears over the next 100 years, but over the next 1,000 years it's a screaming bargain!
Either you are being sarcastic or you like to buy high and sell low. Not my style! ;)
In all seriousness, did someone read my post while I slept? The world seems to be taking a bit less "delight" in the data. The 10-year fully unwound this morning's 0.1% spike higher.
The 10-year fully unwound this morning's 0.1% spike higher.
Maybe we need even more excess reserves!
At this point, the nominal GDP and income numbers disturb me even more than the real numbers. Our Ponzi economy is based on the nominal not the real. Oh well, it's all for the greater glory of Sears......I mean Wall Street.
His findings, published in The New England Journal of Medicine in 2009, show that your odds of becoming obese rise by 57% if you have a friend who becomes obese and by 40% if your sibling becomes obese."We're social animals," Christakis says. "We're influenced by the choices and actions and appearance and behaviors of those around us."
It would stand to reason that if I see other "people" hoard things then perhaps I will hoard them too!
For what it is worth, the Japanese have found their nominal numbers and real numbers equally disturbing over the past 20 years.
I know! Making ends meet isn't easy for the majority. It's even harder if one is burdened with too much housing debt. It harder yet if the tail wind of inflation is suddenly removed.
Expecting over-indebted U.S. consumers to start borrowing again here is ludicrous.
You are all so negative. The middle middle class, production and non-supervisory wages, grew .6% after CPI, this June compared to June '12. Heck, that is almost 12 cents an hour more. Heck, in 33 hours he can treat a friend to a Big Mac.
Yeah, it's almost as if humans no longer have a monopoly on human rights.
In the new world order, I'd put humans (99% anyway) third in the pecking order behind corporations and financial assets. It's for the children of course so it's a good thing.
14 comments:
I chose to make the data semi-annual to smooth it out some. That last data point shows the growth from the first half of 2012 to the first half of 2013 (or lack thereof, sigh).
No worries! Real income growth will bounce bounce back any day now. Just like real yields.
How do I know? Wrong-way Siegel of course.
The bounce back is going to be glorious for Sears and Kmart! Eddie Lampert may be early, but he's never wrong. He's a genius for crying out loud. Even Cramer says so.
mab,
I don't care what happens to Sears over the next 100 years, but over the next 1,000 years it's a screaming bargain!
Either you are being sarcastic or you like to buy high and sell low. Not my style! ;)
In all seriousness, did someone read my post while I slept? The world seems to be taking a bit less "delight" in the data. The 10-year fully unwound this morning's 0.1% spike higher.
The 10-year fully unwound this morning's 0.1% spike higher.
Maybe we need even more excess reserves!
At this point, the nominal GDP and income numbers disturb me even more than the real numbers. Our Ponzi economy is based on the nominal not the real. Oh well, it's all for the greater glory of Sears......I mean Wall Street.
mab,
Maybe we need even more excess reserves!
Is Fat the New Normal?
His findings, published in The New England Journal of Medicine in 2009, show that your odds of becoming obese rise by 57% if you have a friend who becomes obese and by 40% if your sibling becomes obese."We're social animals," Christakis says. "We're influenced by the choices and actions and appearance and behaviors of those around us."
It would stand to reason that if I see other "people" hoard things then perhaps I will hoard them too!
January 24, 2012
Mitt Romney: 'The Banks Aren't Bad People'
WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney said corporations "are people too." Now, he says not only that banks are people, but they "aren't bad people."
mab,
At this point, the nominal GDP and income numbers disturb me even more than the real numbers.
For what it is worth, the Japanese have found their nominal numbers and real numbers equally disturbing over the past 20 years.
Sadly, I think Mitt "the wealth extractor" Romney may be correct:
Soylent Green is Corporations!
For what it is worth, the Japanese have found their nominal numbers and real numbers equally disturbing over the past 20 years.
I know! Making ends meet isn't easy for the majority. It's even harder if one is burdened with too much housing debt. It harder yet if the tail wind of inflation is suddenly removed.
Expecting over-indebted U.S. consumers to start borrowing again here is ludicrous.
You are all so negative. The middle middle class, production and non-supervisory wages, grew .6% after CPI, this June compared to June '12. Heck, that is almost 12 cents an hour more. Heck, in 33 hours he can treat a friend to a Big Mac.
mab,
If you can't literally turn it into Soylent Green, it ain't a person.
I suddenly no longer wish to be a person. ;)
mab,
Expecting over-indebted U.S. consumers to start borrowing again here is ludicrous.
If you can't figuratively turn it into a zombie, it ain't a bank. ;)
Joseph Constable,
Heck, in 33 hours he can treat a friend to a Big Mac.
I hate to be such a downer, but with $4 gasoline, the friend better be the one driving. ;)
I suddenly no longer wish to be a person.
Yeah, it's almost as if humans no longer have a monopoly on human rights.
In the new world order, I'd put humans (99% anyway) third in the pecking order behind corporations and financial assets. It's for the children of course so it's a good thing.
mab,
We need PETH (People for the Ethical Treatment of Humans).
Instead, we get PITHed.
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