Tuesday, July 30, 2013

"The Most Important Thing"

July 3, 2013
6 ways the Fed hurts retirees

"The most important thing investors can do right now is ensure that they are properly positioned for the impending rising interest rate environment." - Nathan Kubik, a Certified Investment Management Analyst at Carnick & Kubik

Click to enlarge.

As seen in the chart, the peak was set on July 5, 2013 (the very next trading day after his quote). The exponential trend in red failed and a new exponential trend in blue took its place. How long the new trend lasts is anyone's guess, but as a long-term believer in death of real yields theories, I'd be more tempted to buy 10-year treasuries than sell them right now.

I wonder what it takes to become a certified investment management analyst at Carnick & Kubik? Perhaps having the name Carnick or Kubik helps? Zing! ;)

In all seriousness, hindsight clearly shows that "most important" and "impending" were both opinions, not facts. It never fails to amaze me how much the financial "experts" can't seem to tell the difference.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Troy said...

More money printed, more money to chase yields lower.

Ain't that weird.

In other news, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-30/time-warner-cable-cbs-talks-continue-averting-program-blackout.html

Comcast is trying to monetize Channel "2" on their cable boxes now.

In other other news, on a lark I decided to see if my 5 days worth of MonoGame coding would actually run on my Mac (instead of the Ouya, since I'm leaving tomorrow).

A quick #ifdef out of two lines of Ouya code, and 5 minutes on google to track down why System.Json is MIA on the Mac side (dunno exactly but I found System.Json.dll in Mono's mess of precompiled dlls (what is called the GAC -- "Global Assembly Cache" in dot net speak I believe, and the damn thing ran fine.


Holy crap. Things are starting to come together now.

Xamarin is $300/yr/platform, and that's spendy, but if that money goes into the tools then I'll be a happy camper.

Visual Studio is a pile of poo IMO now, Xcode is OK but 10 years of lamosity are hard to live down.

Xamarin Studio is kinda my favor IDE. Tons better than Eclipse, but of course editing code on a Vic 20 through the serial port is better than Eclipse.

Stagflationary Mark said...


More money printed, more money to chase yields lower.

Ain't that weird.

Yeah, I guess it all comes down to who gets the money. Trickle down economics should be called leaky faucet economics. There's a lot of monetary pressure in the pipes but very little actual flow. Drip, drip, drip. Sigh.

Anonymous said...

Any comment on rates now that they have actually moved up?

Stagflationary Mark said...


Yeah, I do.

I'm fairly sure that Bernanke just made it clear that this economy can't handle 3% rates today. ;)