Hot New Trend: Assisted Living

June 4, 2016
Yahoo Finance: I checked out WeWork's 'communal housing,' and now I'm considering a move

Of course, the concept of communal housing isn’t novel. But WeLive aims to combine the best aspects of dorms, boutique hotels and apartments, and it charges up to $2,800 a month for this unique living situation. If you’ve ever stepped into a WeWork, there’s an inviting, modern, minimalist aesthetic that’s been infused into WeLive, too.

Isn't novel? Junior assisted living is the best thing since senior assisted living! So what's the catch?

There’s a laundry room with ping pong and pool tables, arcade games and beer on tap. Members do have to pay for laundry — $2 for a wash, $2 for a dry. And there’s an unmanned “honesty corner” with toiletries for sale. Members use their WeLive app to pick up a bottle of shampoo or a tube of toothpaste if they’re running low and are feeling too lazy to run to Walgreens (WBA). Essentially, WeLive wants to be your one-stop shop for anything you need.

Too lazy to run to Walgreens? What? Something tells me those Viagra prescriptions, boxes of condoms, and home pregnancy test kits aren't going to just magically appear in the honesty corner! Hey, what age group is this place aimed at? Lots of single young men and women living together in a coed-dorm environment and all they can think up is shampoo and toothbrushes? That's it? Seriously? Hahaha!

Seems like they've got the game room covered but what about all the other stuff? Fitness center? Computer lab? Media center? And where are the P-Patch planters? Seems like they don't understand their target market at all!

Well, I hope they at least thought to put mirrored ceilings above the communal waterbeds. Give it that retro 70s feel. Very popular with the ladies.



Enjoy life at Tri-Court with amazing new amenities: fitness center, computer lab, media center, game room, even P-Patch planters. Just be over age 60 with a moderate income.

Bad Mark. Bad! Bad!

I may have seriously crossed the line of polite conversation today. So be it. Behold the power of anonymous blogging. Hahaha! :)

Absolute Proof That America's Top Executives Are Dangerously Underpaid

May 19, 2016
Ex-Dean Foods chairman charged with insider trading

Davis misappropriated funds from the charity in August 2011 to finance repayment of a gambling debt he owed to a Las Vegas casino, the SEC complaint charged.

Assuming his gambling expenses were set in stone, if his income would have been twice as much then he may not have needed to allegedly misappropriate funds from an emergency shelter for battered women and their children to finance his lifestyle.

This isn't rocket science people. Top executive pay must be increased to prevent this tragedy from ever happening again.

As for the actual insider trading charges, who really wants to dig into all those gory details? A professional golfer scores big? Sneak previews of quarterly earnings announcements? Boys will be boys.

Should You Hire an Insurance Salesman?

April 23, 2016
MADDOX: Let’s better protect our retirement accounts

To the average investor, there are so many confusing choices for investment advice. Should I hire an insurance salesman, a stockbroker, a financial planner or a retirement specialist? What’s the difference or overlap in these titles? How much can I trust the advertising and marketing materials I see that try to convince me these are all people I can trust and who will have my best interests at heart?

You should definitely consider hiring an insurance salesman to help you manage your retirement investments, but only after you've hired a few used car salesmen to help you manage your rusted-out pickup truck. I mean really, that's just common sense. It is very important that you hire all your salesmen in the right order.

Once you've set up all the cubicles for all of your new workers in your living room, don't forget about the telemarketers. You're going to need at least 20 of those to stay competitive, based on how often my home phone rings.

Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

In all seriousness, if I ever "hire" any salesmen, advertisers, or marketers to help me with my retirement account, would someone please tell my doctor to prescribe some anti-dementia medication ASAP? Thanks!

I should also point out that this also applies to saleswomen. This is an equal lack of opportunity blog. When attempting to avoid salespeople, as I almost always do, I make every effort to treat both men and women equally. ;)

Quote of the Day

August 26, 2015
Cramer: Astonished more people weren't disheartened

"I was actually astonished this morning that more people weren't disheartened by what happened yesterday—the buyers came right in again."

In all honesty, this is a rather feeble quote of the day. I apologize for wasting your time. I realize that it doesn't take much to astonish Jim Cramer.

June 20, 2010
The Sarcasm Report v.52

I think that people don't think of Lenny as sophisticated, but I am telling you Bernie, that not only is he sophisticated but he's one of the great ones in this business. He's one of the great ones. - Jim Cramer

If I didn't know any better, I would tell you that everything you hear from Lenny is an act, because there is just no way that you would ever feel like he's as smart as he really is. - Jim Cramer

July 13, 2012
Former MLB star Lenny Dykstra admits to financial fraud

Dykstra, 49, entered his plea in U.S. District Court to one count each of bankruptcy fraud, concealment of assets and money laundering.

One of the great ones, says Cramer.

He previously pleaded no contest to grand theft auto and exposing himself to women he met through Craigslist.

Sophisticated, says Cramer.

He is currently serving a three-year prison sentence after pleading no contest to grand theft auto and providing a false financial statement. In that case, Dykstra was arrested last year by police who said they found cocaine, Ecstasy and synthetic human growth hormone at his Los Angeles home last.

There is no way you would ever feel like he's as smart as he really is, says Cramer.

The Sarcasm Report v.236

August 18, 2015
USA Today: 5 things you need to know Tuesday

1. Thai prime minister vows to track down Bangkok bombers

I need to know this because I'm heading to Bangkok this morning to have breakfast with the Thai prime minister. This will make a good topic of conversation.

2. FDA to vote on drug for women's sex drive

I need to know this because I plan to have a busy afternoon in Thailand. Very busy. Enough said.

3. Manning may face solitary confinement for breaking prison rules

I need to know this because I will be in Bangkok. I may need cash. Manning, the transgender Army private convicted of leaking national security secrets, is who I trust most to call when I have forgotten my bank account number.

4. Assange sex-assault investigation expires

I need to know this in case I can't get a hold of Manning. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is my backup plan. Once again, I will be in Bangkok. Seems like a good fit.

5. Labor Day travel surge should make this the busiest summer ever for airlines

I need to know this because if Bangkok is half the place it is rumored to be, I'm going to have a really good time. I'll want to book my next visit ASAP.

How on earth did USA Today know me so well? They picked the exact 5 things I really needed to know!

Quote of the Day

August 11, 2015
No China blame; 'flat is the new up': Goldman's Kostin

And while it might signal how desperate China has become after reporting a drop in exports of 8 percent, it doesn't exactly spell disaster for U.S. companies, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Equity Strategist David Kostin.

Doesn't exactly spell disaster? I can work with that.

Diasster

Awesome. It's got ass in it. Now we just need to find unsophisticated investors willing to be the butt of the joke. Hahaha!



Wow. Tough crowd. Not into puns today? I shall not be detoured! The path of the riotous is fought with pear oil!!

Amazon.com: Certified Organic Prickly Pear Seed Oil - Cactus Seed Oil (0.5 fl.oz)

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$37.95 for half an ounce plus a reasonable $8.95 shipping! Just $9,715.20 per gallon plus shipping! Currently accepting new investors! This is the very best Moroccan pear oil manually handled by Moroccan women, none of that cheap anti-aging Chinese s%^t manually handled by Chinese women that you might have tried before. Get you some.

The Crock of @#$% Report v.021

Fortune: 100 Best Companies to Work For: 28. World Wide Technology

With 29 sites in the U.S., supplier of high-tech products works hard to keep all hands in the loop.

Fortune.com has dramatically underestimated the value of this perk!

Many people would pay a small fortune to keep all hands in the loop! This company should easily be in the top 10!

July 31, 2015
Man Allegedly Spent $470K on Strippers With Company Credit Card

Investigators allege Berrett spent more than $476,000 on his World Wide Technology company credit card to not only purchase tokens redeemable on a site where "women perform stripping routines via webcam," but also to tip and buy gifts for strippers. He reportedly paid one $26,800 so she could pay for her college tuition bill, new tires for her car and her parents' utility bill.

This is the kind of perk generally reserved for the CEO. All hands in the loop? Might be the best company to work for in the whole world! And the best part? It's a private company! Or, at the very least, would like to be!

The Sarcasm Report v.228

July 25, 2015
Rent the Runway's designer closet tops $800 million

Amid a recession and stagnant wages, she saw that there was a way to get young women into higher quality clothing.

My top priorities when confronted with recessions and stagnant wages have always been:

1. Higher quality clothing.
2. Bigger television with crisper images.
3. More powerful stereo with surround sound.
4. Bigger and more luxurious apartment.
5. Mercedes Benz S-Class. Enough said.
6. Puppies!

Given enough easy credit, you too can live the renting and leasing dream!

December 6, 2012
Puppies for Rent - a real live business

The puppies are available for rent for a fee of $15 for one hour or $25 for two.

The more you rent, the more you save!

Apple Unveils iLifeboat

July 21, 2015
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Tumbles After Q3 Earnings

As of this writing, shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) were down 6.93% at $121.70 per share in after-hours trades.

Women and children first please. There is ample iLifeboat for everyone.

LifeLock Unlocks LifeBoat

July 21, 2015
LifeLock Plunges After FTC Alleges Data Security Firm Made False Promises To Consumers

Shares in LifeLock plunged over 48% to $8.22 in the wake of the FTC’s release.

Women and children first please. There is ample LifeBoat for everyone.

Low Interest Rates vs. Alcohol: Which Is More Dangerous?

June 12, 2015
Here’s what CEOs said about the economy this week

Low interest rates make everything look attractive

“in today’s low interest rate environment, you could make any acquisition look attractive and that’s dangerous. You have got to use more of a cost of funds over a longer period of time to really look at what returns you might get from an acquisition” —Wells Fargo (Bank)

Urban Dictionary: Beer Goggles

phenomenon in which one's consumption of alcohol makes physically unattractive persons appear beautiful, summed up by the phrase, "there are no ugly women at closing time"

Quote of the Day

March 24, 2015
What funds the next leg up in equities

We’re not sounding an alarm but it takes increasing money flows to push equities higher and its not immediately clear from where the next huge source of additional demand for equities will come.

Rest easy. I will be the additional demand. I know that I have stated on this blog on more than a few occassions that they can pry the long-term TIPS and I-bonds from my cold dead fingers, as I was fully intending to hold to maturity. I have had a change of heart though.

The majority has convinced me. There is no risk in investing in stocks after they have tripled off the lows of the Great Recession. I'm loving this whole buy high and sell even higher momentum vibe. Nothing bad will ever happen again. I get that now. I'm totally on board.

There are just two things I need to do before taking the plunge.

1. I need to wash my hair. Now I realize that many men have been told this by many women over the years, and it has often led to disappointment when dating. Believe me when I say this though. I'm not looking to postpone the buying of stocks here. I am super excited to have this once in a lifetime opportunity. There is nothing I look forward to more.

2. I need to capture one of the monkeys that will be flying out of my bottom. I'll be in the shower anyway washing my hair. There's no better time to look for them. Shouldn't take me much additional time at all.

In summary, there's no reason to panic. I will be selling my long-term bonds and buying stocks after I wash my hair and capture a monkey flying out of my bottom. You can take that to the bank. I will single-handedly support this market. Trust in me!

Now we just need to find someone else to follow my lead once I have fully loaded up on stocks. Otherwise, this will start to look like a failed ponzi scheme again, and we certainly don't want that! Again!

The stock market must generate 10% returns for all eternity or an eternity's worth of hope is lost!

Real Annual National Income Growth

National income is the the sum of all income (wages, profits, rents, interest, and so on).

The following chart shows the 2-year moving average of real national income growth.


Click to enlarge.

Party like it's 1999! (With less than half the real annual national income growth, of course.)

I have stated in the past that it is getting harder and harder to make money off of money. This chart shows that it is getting harder to make money in general.

As a retiree who values caution, proof is not required that we stay in the trend channel. The channel definitely helps explain why I have been so willing to lock in long-term treasury real yields though.

For those who embrace extra risk in an effort to offset the long-term trend, consider what happened the last two times we were near the top of this channel. 1999 saw the dotcom bubble pop and 2005 saw the housing bubble pop. If we do stay in the channel, that doesn't mean we can't just slowly drift lower from here though (like we have been in recent years).

It is possible that we can break out of the channel to the upside. Anything is possible, but it is not something I would bet on. If 5+ years of  ZIRP can't break us free to the upside, then what can? It certainly won't be the Fed raising short-term interest rates in an attempt to cool this economy down. That's a bit like expecting a cocaine addict to perk up once the drugs stop coming in.

December 4, 2014
U.S. Birthrate Declines for Sixth Consecutive Year; Economy Could Be Factor

According to the report, the general fertility rate in the United States — the average number of babies women from 15 to 44 bear over their lifetime — dropped to a record low last year, to 1.86 babies, well below the 2.1 needed for a stable population.

1. Slower growth leads to fewer children.
2. Higher college costs lead to fewer children?
3. Fewer children leads to slower growth.
4. Repeat.

For a debt-based economy desperately counting on economic growth, this is not a virtuous cycle. The good news is that it hasn't hit the economy in a meaningful way yet. We don't expect those under age 6 to hold jobs and contribute much to GDP. If that's the short-term good news, then you probably don't want to hear the long-term bad news.

December 10, 2014
After recent Aso remarks, measures must be offered on fertility issue

“Though many people have a negative image of elderly persons, the problem is that [some women] do not bother to have children,” Aso said in connection with our nation’s low birthrate and aging population.

November 16, 2014
Japan uses subsidies, video games to raise birthrate

Since fiscal 2009, Isen has given families 50,000 yen at the birth of their first child, 100,000 yen for the second and 150,000 yen for each subsequent child. To fund the initiative, the town decided to reduce the cash gifts given to elderly people.

Should real annual national income growth continue to fall, then perhaps we should not get too attached to the predicted income streams of our future Social Security benefits. Sigh.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Education Battle of the Sexes

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of the number of women with master's degrees divided by the number of men with master's degrees (in the civilian labor force aged 25 years and up).


Click to enlarge.

When it comes to the workforce, women now hold 17% more master's degrees than men.

Men, what's our hope from here?

1. Construction employment will miraculously rebound?
2. Professional sports will need us more than we need them?
3. Prisons will expand?
4. Global nuclear war?
5. Beer?

Throw me a bone here! What's our plan!

Women, why are you doing this?

1. Want a better life?
2. Not buying the optimistic projections of future prosperity?
3. Still holding a grudge over the past several thousand years?
4. Tired of violent crime?
5. Or is it something else?

What is it! Inquiring minds want to know!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Civilian Labor Force

The following chart shows the 5-year moving average of the annual change in the civilian labor force.


Click to enlarge.

I have added two trend channels in blue and red. We are currently scraping the bottom of the red one.

Those betting against long-term treasuries and/or scoffing at the idea that we could soon share Japan's fate better hope that we break free of the red channel to the upside fairly soon, because things get pretty dicey under 0%.

I predict that we will never get back to 2.5%. That required women entering the workforce. They are here now. 1% might be doable though, if we start having more babies and/or can convince a lot more people to permanently move here. Big if.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Battle of the Sexes: Men vs. Women

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of men's clothing store employment divided by women's clothing store employment.


Click to enlarge.

Since the economy began to fall apart in 2000, it would seem that women are definitely winning the battle. Or are they?

September 30, 2014
BJS: Prisoners in 2013

On December 31, 2013, the United States held an estimated 1,574,700 persons in state and federal prisons, an increase of approximately 4,300 prisoners (0.3%) from 2012. This was the first increase reported since the peak of 1,615,500 prisoners in 2009.

Prosperity, baby! That's what I'm talking about.

The number of persons admitted to state or federal prison during 2013 rose by 4%, from 608,400 in 2012 to 631,200 in 2013.

We're back on track! The economy is recovering nicely!

As of 2013, there were 1,463,454 male prisoners and just 111,287 female prisoners. That's a 13 to 1 ratio! And why does this matter?

We men are always thinking! Free clothing is just one failed bank robbery attempt away!

Female prisoners sentenced to more than a year in state or federal prison grew by almost 3% (2,800 inmates) between 2012 and 2013, while male prisoners increased 0.2% (2,500).

Hold on now. 3% growth vs. our 0.2%? That's not a trend I'm comfortable with! We men must not lose our prisoner monopoly in this brave new prosperous world!

First they came for our jobs, and I did not speak out. Because working for "the man" kind of sucks.


Click to enlarge.

Then they came for our incarceration, and I did not speak out. Because there were plenty of prison uniforms for all. You know what? Never mind. I'm good.

Too much sarcasm? Or too much despair? You make the call. Sigh.

See Also:
Parabolic Trend Failure of the Day: Family Clothing Store Employment

Source Data:
BLS: CES Databases
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Pent-Down Retail Trade Employment (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows retail trade employment per capita.


Click to enlarge.

Would you believe that there was a time when there was only 1 person working in retail trade for every 33 men, women, and children in this country? Oh the humanity. How did we ever survive?

Why has it taken so long for the retail trade productivity miracle to finally appear?

Let's look at retail trade employment as a fraction of nonfarm payrolls.


Click to enlarge.

The ratio has mostly been trending flat since the Great Recession. That said, I don't believe for a minute that the Fed has permanently prevented the long-term trend seen in blue. Time will tell.



This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

Some Children Left Behind

The following chart shows the number of child day care services employees.


Click to enlarge.

That's some recovery we've got there. It's strong and resilient. Yes, sir.

In my opinion, the Japanese should have patented massive economic busts and ongoing zero interest rate policies as effective birth control medicines. Just think of the royalties!

April 17, 2013
Japan's population suffers biggest fall in history

Japan's rapidly ageing population has suffered its biggest decrease since records began in the 1950s, according to new figures.

January 8, 2014
CDC: U.S. Fertility Rate Hits Record Low for 2nd Straight Year; 40.7% of Babies Born to Unmarried Women

The U.S. fertility rate has dropped from year-to-year for each of the last five years. In 2007, it was 69.3. In 2008, it was 68.1. In 2009, it was 66.2. In 2010, it was 64.1. In 2011, it was 63.2. And, in 2012, it was 63.0.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment

Total Fertility Rate

Click to enlarge.

August 1, 2013
Fertility forecast: Baby bust is over; births will rise

The total fertility rate in the USA is predicted to rise from a 25-year low of 1.89 children per woman in 2012 to 1.90 in 2013, according to the U.S. Fertility Forecast report released today by Demographic Intelligence.

1.89 to 1.90! Color me impressed! A few more years of that and we might even make it back to the declining long-term trend line. As a side note, it takes a rate of 2.1 to maintain a stable population. Otherwise, immigration for the win! It's the land of the free. What could possibly go wrong?

Among women aged 15-44, those who attend religious services weekly or more have 1.42 children, compared with the 1.11 children of women who rarely or never attend.

Women who attend religious services weekly intend to have 2.62 children, and those who rarely or never go want to have 2.10 children.

The following chart shows real annual religious construction spending per capita (August 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

I'll leave the trend line as an exercise for the reader. Got crayon?

I'm not a religious person but I can say this. Over the long-term, we appear to be ZIRPing to Japanese hell in a handbasket. The future's so bright I gotta buy glasses.

Source Data:
Demographics of the United States
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

2013 Retail Christmas Outlook

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of annualized production and nonsupervisory employee hours worked per capita in sporting goods stores, women's clothing stores, and hobby, toys, and game stores. I'm attempting to track an old school Christmas gift theme (a little something for everyone).


Click to enlarge.

Been there, done that

To have experienced the topic under discussion, to the point of boredom or complacency.

Needless to say, I'm not optimistic. This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Population