The following chart shows the 5-year moving average of the annual change in the civilian labor force.
Click to enlarge.
I have added two trend channels in blue and red. We are currently scraping the bottom of the red one.
Those betting against long-term treasuries and/or scoffing at the idea that we could soon share Japan's fate better hope that we break free of the red channel to the upside fairly soon, because things get pretty dicey under 0%.
I predict that we will never get back to 2.5%. That required women entering the workforce. They are here now. 1% might be doable though, if we start having more babies and/or can convince a lot more people to permanently move here. Big if.
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
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