Missing Jobs by Gender

The following chart shows the exponential growth of non-farm payrolls by gender. I've included an exponential trend line for each gender based on the trend that was established from 1964 to 1990.



The next chart shows the difference between the number of jobs and the trend line.



The exponential growth in payroll jobs for women has failed and it has failed spectacularly. What caused this? Math! That's all it took.



Note that women now make up 50% of payrolls. That trend reached its logical conclusion. It's over and we need to adapt to the new reality.

Here's something else that will most likely cause us to adapt. What's going to happen to the previous charts when the following long-term trend starts forming?



What's going to happen if Corporate America's new wave of robot workers decide not to shop at our country's many strip malls? Then what?

And lastly, check this out.

June 25, 2011
Missing Jobs vs. Trade Deficit


Compare and contrast it to the missing jobs for women.



I'm not suggesting that they are directly related. I doubt that they are. I just find it interesting that the two shapes are so similar (and that neither trend is our long-term friend).



I can't describe it, what I'm feeling and what I'm thinking. This means something. This is important.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm
St. Louis Fed: Women Employees: Total Nonfarm

Battle of the Sexes: Men vs. Women

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of men's clothing store employment divided by women's clothing store employment.


Click to enlarge.

Since the economy began to fall apart in 2000, it would seem that women are definitely winning the battle. Or are they?

September 30, 2014
BJS: Prisoners in 2013

On December 31, 2013, the United States held an estimated 1,574,700 persons in state and federal prisons, an increase of approximately 4,300 prisoners (0.3%) from 2012. This was the first increase reported since the peak of 1,615,500 prisoners in 2009.

Prosperity, baby! That's what I'm talking about.

The number of persons admitted to state or federal prison during 2013 rose by 4%, from 608,400 in 2012 to 631,200 in 2013.

We're back on track! The economy is recovering nicely!

As of 2013, there were 1,463,454 male prisoners and just 111,287 female prisoners. That's a 13 to 1 ratio! And why does this matter?

We men are always thinking! Free clothing is just one failed bank robbery attempt away!

Female prisoners sentenced to more than a year in state or federal prison grew by almost 3% (2,800 inmates) between 2012 and 2013, while male prisoners increased 0.2% (2,500).

Hold on now. 3% growth vs. our 0.2%? That's not a trend I'm comfortable with! We men must not lose our prisoner monopoly in this brave new prosperous world!

First they came for our jobs, and I did not speak out. Because working for "the man" kind of sucks.


Click to enlarge.

Then they came for our incarceration, and I did not speak out. Because there were plenty of prison uniforms for all. You know what? Never mind. I'm good.

Too much sarcasm? Or too much despair? You make the call. Sigh.

See Also:
Parabolic Trend Failure of the Day: Family Clothing Store Employment

Source Data:
BLS: CES Databases
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Quote of the Day

August 11, 2015
No China blame; 'flat is the new up': Goldman's Kostin

And while it might signal how desperate China has become after reporting a drop in exports of 8 percent, it doesn't exactly spell disaster for U.S. companies, according to Goldman Sachs Chief Equity Strategist David Kostin.

Doesn't exactly spell disaster? I can work with that.

Diasster

Awesome. It's got ass in it. Now we just need to find unsophisticated investors willing to be the butt of the joke. Hahaha!



Wow. Tough crowd. Not into puns today? I shall not be detoured! The path of the riotous is fought with pear oil!!

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Total Fertility Rate

Click to enlarge.

August 1, 2013
Fertility forecast: Baby bust is over; births will rise

The total fertility rate in the USA is predicted to rise from a 25-year low of 1.89 children per woman in 2012 to 1.90 in 2013, according to the U.S. Fertility Forecast report released today by Demographic Intelligence.

1.89 to 1.90! Color me impressed! A few more years of that and we might even make it back to the declining long-term trend line. As a side note, it takes a rate of 2.1 to maintain a stable population. Otherwise, immigration for the win! It's the land of the free. What could possibly go wrong?

Among women aged 15-44, those who attend religious services weekly or more have 1.42 children, compared with the 1.11 children of women who rarely or never attend.

Women who attend religious services weekly intend to have 2.62 children, and those who rarely or never go want to have 2.10 children.

The following chart shows real annual religious construction spending per capita (August 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

I'll leave the trend line as an exercise for the reader. Got crayon?

I'm not a religious person but I can say this. Over the long-term, we appear to be ZIRPing to Japanese hell in a handbasket. The future's so bright I gotta buy glasses.

Source Data:
Demographics of the United States
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Household Median Income: Optimism vs. Pessimism

For the Optimists:

Click to enlarge.

It's a sure thing! Can't lose!

For the Pessimists:

Click to enlarge.

It's a sure thing! Can't win!

I sure wish there was a way to break the tie between the optimists and the pessimists. I could probably start by pointing out that the optimists have at least one thing wrong. Constant growth really should be using an exponential trend and not just a linear one. Here's the problem with a linear trend. If it takes roughly 20 years for median income to double once (as seen in the first chart for the most part), then it will take an additional 40 years for it to double again. See why linear trends kind of stink when it comes to growth?

That's what makes the pessimist case slightly more believable. Growth is definitely slowing. Both charts clearly show it. It's just that the first chart shows it in a much more subtle way. What would happen if the growth continues to slow?

September 9, 2013
Study: Demographics to Drag Down Median Income

Americans who expect wages to rise as the nation recovers from the recession may be in for disappointment. A new report suggests incomes may be headed downhill for decades.

Oh oh. Why?

Pointing to past decades, the economists say median household incomes rose 9 percent between 1979 and 1989 and jumped 13 percent between 1989 and 2000. They say the primary driver of this growth was women, The Wall Street Journal notes.

Women! I knew it! The *real* men among us will just need to convince women to each work 2 jobs! That seems totally doable in this increasingly automated and outsourced world with chronically high unemployment. I suggest, "I bet you can't work *two* jobs! You're just a woman!" That's sure to be a big hit in any household!

And when I say big hit, I mean that the future's so bright I gotta prepare a cold compress for my eye. I'll have quite the shiner! Although optimism means that I can expect the best possible outcome, I just don't have it in me. I'm clearly planning for more of a pessimistic worst-case bodily injury type of outcome, lol.

In all seriousness, we're so @#$%ed long-term. This is not investment advice.

This post inspired by Revolting as seen at Retirement Blues.

Update:

I originally stated that this data was in inflation adjusted dollars. It was pointed out to me in the comments by mab that this data didn't look inflation adjusted though. After further review, he was absolutely right. Although the data source used inflation adjusted data for the 2-year and 3-year median income averages, it did not use it for the single year averages (which I was using). I have added the "my personal blunders" tag to this post. I should have spotted it. All the conclusions here remain valid. In inflation adjusted terms, things are much, much worse.

Source Data:
U.S. Census: Income

Baby Boom Turns to Baby Bust

So there I am doing some light reading of the detailed CPI report when I stumble upon an interesting phenomenon in the 12-month median price changes as seen in Table 1V.

Men's Apparel: 1.99%
Women's Apparel: 2.10%

Boys’ Apparel: 5.30%
Girls' Apparel: 3.13%

Everything seems to make sense. Even in tough economic times, parents still love their kids. Might make their children's clothes a priority over their own. Right?

So explain this?

Infants’ and Toddlers’ Apparel: -1.89%

I'm pretty sure that parents love their infants and toddlers at least as much as they love their boys and girls. Right? So that got me thinking.

My first thought was that there were a lot of naked infants and toddlers running around, lol. Unfortunately, that has probably always been true and therefore does not explain the phenomenon.

So my next thought was perhaps there were an unexpectedly fewer number of infants and toddlers. You'd certainly get some deflation that way. Picture a store that thinks 100 parents will visit and only 90 actually do. Hello clearance table.

So I now had a theory and it goes well with something I wrote previously about declining population growth. It was time to go looking for confirmation. It certainly didn't take long to find.

March 27, 2012
Birth Rate Plummets, Young Americans Too Poor To Have Kids

The number of children born in the U.S. has plunged 8 percent since its all-time high in 2007, according to the National Center for Health Statistics. More alarming: population growth is at its slowest growth rate since the Great Depression, according to the U.S. Census.

I'm going to suggest that underemployed workers might tend to think twice about having children. Since both men and women now work, it might only take one of the two being underemployed. The math therefore makes it even worse than it might otherwise appear. Consider the following table.



See the potential problem? Not much of the table is green.

What if it takes two employed breadwinners to both buy a dream home *and* have children?

What if high unemployment and/or skyrocketing tuition costs cause one of those two things to be postponed (or worse, cancelled)?

What if the epic housing bust and high gasoline prices permanently damage confidence?

September 16, 2009
Cash for kids in Japan

It isn’t easy to raise children in Japan, where the birth rate of 1.37 children per woman has fallen well below the replacement level of 2.07 and contributed to structural problems facing the world’s fastest-aging society. The reasons cited are myriad: the cost of schooling, a lack of daycare options and an increasing number of women unwilling to interrupt or forego their careers among them.

The Education Battle of the Sexes

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of the number of women with master's degrees divided by the number of men with master's degrees (in the civilian labor force aged 25 years and up).


Click to enlarge.

When it comes to the workforce, women now hold 17% more master's degrees than men.

Men, what's our hope from here?

1. Construction employment will miraculously rebound?
2. Professional sports will need us more than we need them?
3. Prisons will expand?
4. Global nuclear war?
5. Beer?

Throw me a bone here! What's our plan!

Women, why are you doing this?

1. Want a better life?
2. Not buying the optimistic projections of future prosperity?
3. Still holding a grudge over the past several thousand years?
4. Tired of violent crime?
5. Or is it something else?

What is it! Inquiring minds want to know!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Our Employment Pickle (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows day care employees as a percent of women workers aged 20 to 44.


Click to enlarge.

Stick a fork in that trend. It's not only over, but it's rolling over.

How to Fork Someone's Yard Prank

If you want to get a little more creative, buy some pickles (or anything that will stick on a fork), and add them to the forks.

Genius! That's just what this economy needs. More pickles!

January 12, 2013
Our Economic Pickle

It is often thought that college graduates can escape these unfortunate wage trends. But college graduates — hit by the bursting of the tech bubble in the late 1990s and then by the deep recession — have been hit hard, too. Seventy percent of the nation’s college grads have had their after-inflation hourly wages decline since 2000, according to the Economic Policy Institute, with the typical graduate experiencing a 3.1 percent decline.

The future's so bright I gotta whistle!



Source Data:
BLS: Employment
St. Louis Fed: Employment Level - 20 to 44 years, Women

Peak Employment?

This chart shows the natural log of civilian employment. Constant exponential growth rates therefore show up as a straight line. The trend line in red is not a straight line though. I'm using a 3rd order polynomial as an attempt to fit it.

In previous posts I showed that the long-term exponential trend has died and there's no going back to it. It is not mathematically possible.

I did not offer a new trend to replace it though. I'm not a big fan of using polynomials to predict the future, but they do offer a pretty good glimpse of where we currently are. As seen in the chart, that glimpse is mighty ugly.

Anyone who thinks that we can continue to automate and outsource jobs away because it hasn't hurt us in the past might want to stare at this long-term chart for a while. We've been losing job creation momentum for decades. It is not an unexpected new problem that has suddenly appeared.

As a side note, the 3rd order polynomial was chosen because it allows both the increasing growth due to women entering the workforce (as seen in the left half of the chart) and the decreasing growth due to automation and outsourcing (as seen in the right half of the chart). The former is done. Women now make up about 50% of the workforce. The latter continues on though.

I am not attempting to make predictions about the future here. I'm simply pointing out that there is a risk that we have seen peak employment. We are 6.9 million jobs below the peak set in November 2007. That was 3 1/2 years and trillions of borrowed dollars ago.

Update:



See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Civilian Employment
St. Louis Fed: Employment in Japan

One of the Earliest Exponential Trend Failures

The following chart should have served as an early warning sign that there would be many more economic growth failures to follow.


Click to enlarge.

Women entered the workforce in exponentially increasing numbers. It allowed us to grow faster than we otherwise would have. That tailwind is now gone.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Labor Force Participation Rate - Women

Real Annual National Income Growth

National income is the the sum of all income (wages, profits, rents, interest, and so on).

The following chart shows the 2-year moving average of real national income growth.


Click to enlarge.

Party like it's 1999! (With less than half the real annual national income growth, of course.)

I have stated in the past that it is getting harder and harder to make money off of money. This chart shows that it is getting harder to make money in general.

As a retiree who values caution, proof is not required that we stay in the trend channel. The channel definitely helps explain why I have been so willing to lock in long-term treasury real yields though.

For those who embrace extra risk in an effort to offset the long-term trend, consider what happened the last two times we were near the top of this channel. 1999 saw the dotcom bubble pop and 2005 saw the housing bubble pop. If we do stay in the channel, that doesn't mean we can't just slowly drift lower from here though (like we have been in recent years).

It is possible that we can break out of the channel to the upside. Anything is possible, but it is not something I would bet on. If 5+ years of  ZIRP can't break us free to the upside, then what can? It certainly won't be the Fed raising short-term interest rates in an attempt to cool this economy down. That's a bit like expecting a cocaine addict to perk up once the drugs stop coming in.

December 4, 2014
U.S. Birthrate Declines for Sixth Consecutive Year; Economy Could Be Factor

According to the report, the general fertility rate in the United States — the average number of babies women from 15 to 44 bear over their lifetime — dropped to a record low last year, to 1.86 babies, well below the 2.1 needed for a stable population.

1. Slower growth leads to fewer children.
2. Higher college costs lead to fewer children?
3. Fewer children leads to slower growth.
4. Repeat.

For a debt-based economy desperately counting on economic growth, this is not a virtuous cycle. The good news is that it hasn't hit the economy in a meaningful way yet. We don't expect those under age 6 to hold jobs and contribute much to GDP. If that's the short-term good news, then you probably don't want to hear the long-term bad news.

December 10, 2014
After recent Aso remarks, measures must be offered on fertility issue

“Though many people have a negative image of elderly persons, the problem is that [some women] do not bother to have children,” Aso said in connection with our nation’s low birthrate and aging population.

November 16, 2014
Japan uses subsidies, video games to raise birthrate

Since fiscal 2009, Isen has given families 50,000 yen at the birth of their first child, 100,000 yen for the second and 150,000 yen for each subsequent child. To fund the initiative, the town decided to reduce the cash gifts given to elderly people.

Should real annual national income growth continue to fall, then perhaps we should not get too attached to the predicted income streams of our future Social Security benefits. Sigh.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Future's Too Bright!

The following chart shows sales at food services and drinking places divided by wages.


Click to enlarge.

Don't think of it as a linear trend failure. Think of it as a transition from happy times into a perpetual happy hour!

Happy Hour

In most cases the "happy hour" lasts longer than a single hour.

Yes! 13 years and counting!

August 25, 2013
Beer here: Wal-Mart’s quiet push to go big on brew

Beer is “a traffic-driving category,” said Colin McGranahan, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. “High-frequency consumables can help them with their traffic problem. Beer fits that.”

Yes! Beer shines when it comes to solving traffic problems! Just ask any police ocifer!

March 26, 2013
Your Neighborhood Needs More Bars

How NIMBY stupidity is stifling urban bars and restaurants—and blocking a major opportunity for small-business growth.

Yes! We've experienced so many exponential trend failures! Exponential liquor growth for the perma-win!

February 19, 2013
The new United States of Booze

"No one writes happily about liquor," observed John McDonald in a 1961 Fortune story called "The Perplexed Liquor Industry." "Only recently have a few bold distillers in their advertising set forth pictures of men and women in pleasant social settings having drinks. And even now the advertisement almost never shows the women holding drinks in their hands. The drinks just sit on the table in front of them."

Au contraire mon frère! Happy times! Happy hour! Happy! Happy! Happy!

September 7, 2011
7 Steps To Hiding Your Hangover At Work

Step 5: Turn The Brightness On Your Screen Down

Bright things and your eyes are not friends right now. Maybe tomorrow they can reunite like those dudes with Christian the Lion, but right now… fuck lions. Or something. Look just trust me. Turn down the brightness. (But don’t go too low, then you’ll just strain your eyes. This is a balancing act.)

The future isn't just bright, it's too bright!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

39.1 Million Missing Jobs

Click to enlarge.

We continue to fall behind the exponential trend that was established between 1939 and 2000. It is virtually impossible to return to the red trend line.

The next chart shows the difference between where we are now and the red trend line.


Click to enlarge.

That's 39.1 million missing jobs.


Click to enlarge.

The chart above shows why it is impossible to return to the red trend line. Over the long-term, we cannot grow employment faster than we grow our population. At the very least, we can no longer add women to the workforce like we once did. Women now make up roughly half of it.

The last chart shows weekly unemployment claims as a percentage of nonfarm payrolls.


Click to enlarge.

We may think unemployment is bad now (and it is), but it can clearly get a lot worse. As seen in the blue arrows, the long-term trend that started in 2000 is not working in our favor.

I remain firmly in the bears' camp long-term.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Total Nonfarm Payrolls
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims

Should You Hire an Insurance Salesman?

April 23, 2016
MADDOX: Let’s better protect our retirement accounts

To the average investor, there are so many confusing choices for investment advice. Should I hire an insurance salesman, a stockbroker, a financial planner or a retirement specialist? What’s the difference or overlap in these titles? How much can I trust the advertising and marketing materials I see that try to convince me these are all people I can trust and who will have my best interests at heart?

You should definitely consider hiring an insurance salesman to help you manage your retirement investments, but only after you've hired a few used car salesmen to help you manage your rusted-out pickup truck. I mean really, that's just common sense. It is very important that you hire all your salesmen in the right order.

Once you've set up all the cubicles for all of your new workers in your living room, don't forget about the telemarketers. You're going to need at least 20 of those to stay competitive, based on how often my home phone rings.

Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

In all seriousness, if I ever "hire" any salesmen, advertisers, or marketers to help me with my retirement account, would someone please tell my doctor to prescribe some anti-dementia medication ASAP? Thanks!

I should also point out that this also applies to saleswomen. This is an equal lack of opportunity blog. When attempting to avoid salespeople, as I almost always do, I make every effort to treat both men and women equally. ;)

Housing vs. Wages

Click to enlarge.

If you believe inflation adjusted housing prices will rise over the long-term then you better believe inflation adjusted wages per capita will also rise over the long-term. Call me skeptical.

Women participated more and more in the workforce during this period. That drove real wages per capita higher. They're here. Now what?

Note: I set the y-intercept at zero for this chart's trend line (Zero Wages = Zero House Prices). It helped the trend fit the data much better in my opinion.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Quote of the Day

August 26, 2015
Cramer: Astonished more people weren't disheartened

"I was actually astonished this morning that more people weren't disheartened by what happened yesterday—the buyers came right in again."

In all honesty, this is a rather feeble quote of the day. I apologize for wasting your time. I realize that it doesn't take much to astonish Jim Cramer.

June 20, 2010
The Sarcasm Report v.52

I think that people don't think of Lenny as sophisticated, but I am telling you Bernie, that not only is he sophisticated but he's one of the great ones in this business. He's one of the great ones. - Jim Cramer

If I didn't know any better, I would tell you that everything you hear from Lenny is an act, because there is just no way that you would ever feel like he's as smart as he really is. - Jim Cramer

July 13, 2012
Former MLB star Lenny Dykstra admits to financial fraud

Dykstra, 49, entered his plea in U.S. District Court to one count each of bankruptcy fraud, concealment of assets and money laundering.

One of the great ones, says Cramer.

He previously pleaded no contest to grand theft auto and exposing himself to women he met through Craigslist.

Sophisticated, says Cramer.

He is currently serving a three-year prison sentence after pleading no contest to grand theft auto and providing a false financial statement. In that case, Dykstra was arrested last year by police who said they found cocaine, Ecstasy and synthetic human growth hormone at his Los Angeles home last.

There is no way you would ever feel like he's as smart as he really is, says Cramer.

The Sarcasm Report v.236

August 18, 2015
USA Today: 5 things you need to know Tuesday

1. Thai prime minister vows to track down Bangkok bombers

I need to know this because I'm heading to Bangkok this morning to have breakfast with the Thai prime minister. This will make a good topic of conversation.

2. FDA to vote on drug for women's sex drive

I need to know this because I plan to have a busy afternoon in Thailand. Very busy. Enough said.

3. Manning may face solitary confinement for breaking prison rules

I need to know this because I will be in Bangkok. I may need cash. Manning, the transgender Army private convicted of leaking national security secrets, is who I trust most to call when I have forgotten my bank account number.

4. Assange sex-assault investigation expires

I need to know this in case I can't get a hold of Manning. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is my backup plan. Once again, I will be in Bangkok. Seems like a good fit.

5. Labor Day travel surge should make this the busiest summer ever for airlines

I need to know this because if Bangkok is half the place it is rumored to be, I'm going to have a really good time. I'll want to book my next visit ASAP.

How on earth did USA Today know me so well? They picked the exact 5 things I really needed to know!

Quote of the Day

March 24, 2015
What funds the next leg up in equities

We’re not sounding an alarm but it takes increasing money flows to push equities higher and its not immediately clear from where the next huge source of additional demand for equities will come.

Rest easy. I will be the additional demand. I know that I have stated on this blog on more than a few occassions that they can pry the long-term TIPS and I-bonds from my cold dead fingers, as I was fully intending to hold to maturity. I have had a change of heart though.

The majority has convinced me. There is no risk in investing in stocks after they have tripled off the lows of the Great Recession. I'm loving this whole buy high and sell even higher momentum vibe. Nothing bad will ever happen again. I get that now. I'm totally on board.

There are just two things I need to do before taking the plunge.

1. I need to wash my hair. Now I realize that many men have been told this by many women over the years, and it has often led to disappointment when dating. Believe me when I say this though. I'm not looking to postpone the buying of stocks here. I am super excited to have this once in a lifetime opportunity. There is nothing I look forward to more.

2. I need to capture one of the monkeys that will be flying out of my bottom. I'll be in the shower anyway washing my hair. There's no better time to look for them. Shouldn't take me much additional time at all.

In summary, there's no reason to panic. I will be selling my long-term bonds and buying stocks after I wash my hair and capture a monkey flying out of my bottom. You can take that to the bank. I will single-handedly support this market. Trust in me!

Now we just need to find someone else to follow my lead once I have fully loaded up on stocks. Otherwise, this will start to look like a failed ponzi scheme again, and we certainly don't want that! Again!

The stock market must generate 10% returns for all eternity or an eternity's worth of hope is lost!

Long-term Household Formation Trends

April 15, 1987
AVERAGE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD IN U.S. DECLINES TO LOWEST EVER RECORDED

The average number of people in an American household declined from 2.69 in 1985, 2.76 in 1980 and 3.14 in 1970, the bureau said. The number increased slightly in 1983, apparently because households stayed together for economic reasons after the recession of 1981 and 1982.

...

The decline nationally in household size is not a new phenomenon. Although it has drawn attention in the last decade, it is part of a trend that dates at least to the last century. The average number of people per household was 5.55 in 1850, 5.04 in 1880, 4.76 in 1900 and 4.54 in 1910. It declined to 4.34 in 1920, 4.11 in 1930, 3.67 in 1940, 3.37 in 1950 and 3.33 in 1960.

The Census Bureau projects that the average will continue declining, to 2.48 in the year 2000, from the current 2.67.

U.S. Census Bureau: State & County QuickFacts

Persons per household, 2000: 2.59



Note that the long-term trend is no longer declining at a rapid pace. The Census Bureau's 1987 target for the year 2000 was not reached.

There's a risk that the long-term trend is forming a bottom. There's an additional risk that it won't just bottom, but that it will actually begin to reverse. The stock market's been stagnant for a decade. Unemployment is now extremely high.

The population will most likely continue to grow, but if more and more people live together in the same household ("for economic reasons" as seen above) then that's just one more headwind for the housing market.

One could argue that the household size might continue to shrink if people stopped having children for economic reasons though. Of course, in that case our population wouldn't grow. That would really hurt the ponzi scheme nature of our economy. How could we continue to borrow prosperity from our children and grandchildren if we don't produce any?

December 22, 2005
Japan population starts to shrink

Japan's population is set to drop this year for the first time since records began more than a century ago, according to a government report.

...

Japanese women have cited inadequate child care, low part-time wages and long hours worked by their husbands as some of the reasons why they do not have any children, or only have one.

August 6, 2009
Birth Rate Is Said to Fall as a Result of Recession

Historically, birth rates have fluctuated with the economy. Record lows were recorded during two economic crises: the Depression in the 1930s and the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s.

I've often argued here that we are trying to combine the very best of The Great Depression with the very best of the 1970s. Sigh.

In summary, there is a risk of household formation growing due to economic reasons and population growth slowing due to economic reasons. Neither effect would help solve our national housing glut.

Apple Unveils iLifeboat

July 21, 2015
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Tumbles After Q3 Earnings

As of this writing, shares of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) were down 6.93% at $121.70 per share in after-hours trades.

Women and children first please. There is ample iLifeboat for everyone.